By Dave DeCamp, Antiwar.com, 10/14/24

The Ukrainian government is considering options to end the war with Russia that would involve ceding territory, Der Spiegel reported on Sunday, citing a Ukrainian official.

The report said it was the first time since Russia’s invasion in February 2022 that the Ukrainian leadership has considered a deal that wouldn’t involve it getting back all of the territory Russian forces have captured since February 2022.

Under a peace deal that was on the table in March and April 2022, Russia would have withdrawn its forces back to pre-invasion lines. But that deal was discouraged by the US and other NATO countries, who urged the Ukrainians to fight.

Over the past two years, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been pushing a “peace formula” that calls for a full Russian withdrawal from Ukraine before peace talks can even happen, which is a non-starter for negotiations with Moscow.

“We believed that victory had to mean the unconditional surrender of Putin’s Russia,” the Ukrainian source told Der Spiegel. The official acknowledged that was not a realistic view, saying, “A deal must also be beneficial for Russia.”

The report comes as Russian forces continue to make gains in eastern Ukraine, which have become more rapid in recent months. Ukrainian forces still hold a small chunk of Russia’s Kursk Oblast, but Russian troops are slowly pushing them back.

The Ukrainian official said that Kyiv believes the US will slowly wind down its support for Ukraine whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump wins the presidential election in November. Trump is running on ending the war while Harris is vowing to continue supporting Kyiv.

“Whether it’s Trump or Harris, the Americans will slowly but surely withdraw,” the official said. “The prognosis is poor.”

The Bell, 10/7/24

‘Reputation whitewashing’ scandal rocks Russian opposition

Yet another scandal is tearing the Russian opposition apart. This time, the Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK), set up by the late Alexei Navalny, is under fire. Maxim Katz, a former municipal deputy turned popular YouTuber, released an investigation that accuses the foundation of close ties with fugitive Russian bankers and alleged that the organization is receiving funds from people who are accused of fraud.

• Katz’s video is dedicated to Alexander Zheleznyak and Sergei Leontiev, the former co-founders of Probusinessbank. In the 2010s, the bank ranked 51st in Russia in terms of its assets, but it was stripped of its license by the Central Bank in 2015 and later filed for bankruptcy. When checking the bank’s financial situation, the regulator found large-scale operations to withdraw assets and losses caused by the bank’s management, estimated to run into hundreds of millions of dollars. In 2017, Zheleznyak and Leontiev, who fled Russia as soon as Probusinessbank hit trouble, were arrested in absentia. 
• In his investigation, Katz leaned heavily on the long-established facts of the Probusinessbank case, adding in some previously unpublished documents. Katz got these from a group of former depositors, led by Nerses Grigoryan, who are trying to sue to recover their money. The main allegation is that Zheleznyak and Leontiev stole billions  from depositors in Probusinessbank and then fled Russia. Once in the West, they reinvented themselves as entrepreneurs persecuted because of their criticisms of Putin’s regime.
• Zheleznyak and Leontiev repeatedly claimed that their troubles with the authorities began after 2012 following an attempt to launch a bank card from which 1% of purchases would be transferred to Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation — at the bank’s expense rather than the cardholder’s. There were talks about releasing the card, but it never saw the light of day. Zheleznyak and Leontiev allegedly had to abandon the idea amid pressure from the government and the Central Bank. Katz disputes this account, saying that there were no visible sanctions from the authorities at the time. Later, Probusinessbank was entrusted with rehabilitating a bank that ran into problems and Zheleznyak was even presented with a state award and worked on the State Duma’s expert council on security and combating corruption.
• Zheleznyak and Leontiev have played a noticeable role in the Anti-Corruption Foundation from abroad in recent years. Katz alleges they have used it to try to whitewash their reputations. Zheleznyak was the founder of the group’s legal entity in the United States and signs important documents on its behalf each month, while Leontiev makes a monthly donation of $20,000. 
• After the investigation was released, the Anti-Corruption Foundation’s leading figures did not comment on the substance of the allegations and called for their followers to wait for a more “detailed response” to follow. Chair Maria Pevchikh complained that “we will have to do this to the detriment of our real work.” Leonid Volkov, one of its directors who was last year embroiled in a scandal over issuing a letter in support of sanctioned Russian oligarchs, dismissed all claims of “whitewashing.”
• Mikhail Khodorkovsky, former oil magnate turned opposition figure who is also embroiled in a row with the Anti-Corruption Foundation over separate allegations, said that he was shocked at the reaction from the group and its failure to give a detailed response. “When an outrageous situation becomes public it raises the question of the need for greater transparency in the funding of opposition forces and the compliance of their activities with Western legal standards,” he said.

Why the world should care:

After the war in Ukraine and especially after the death of Alexei Navalny, there were great hopes for unity among the opposition in exile. This latest scandal shows yet again that this is unlikely to happen — at least in the foreseeable future. For now, it seems that key figures and groups are more interested in fighting their own turf wars than joining a collective struggle against the Putin regime.

By Simplicius, Substack, 10/10/24

Things have gone from bad to worse for Ukraine. Zelensky is again traveling the globe in an attempt to form some type of international consensus for ending the conflict. After half a year of deliberately obfuscating propaganda about Russia “desperately” chasing a ceasefire, it has emerged clearer than ever that it is in fact Ukraine desperate to browbeat allies into forcing Russia into an armistice. In reality, Russia has now signaled more strongly than ever that there is nothing to negotiate about presently.

The Western MSM narrative has fully pivoted to the arc that Ukraine is now ‘flexible’ as to the concessions for ending the war—referring to, namely, the now chief Western demand of giving up land to placate Russia into ceasefire.

Of course Zelensky continues to vocally declare he is not considering land-for-peace, however, this is obviously a ploy to keep nationalist groups at bay. He has to present the ostensible face of strength in this regard, when in reality he merely wants the perception to look like it’s the allies driving this initiative, in order to deflect blame onto them when it finally does happen. Proof of this lies in the fact that even Forbes pressed this issue in their latest piece, explaining how Russia seeks to deliberately force Ukraine into concessions for the express purpose of activating Ukrainian ‘nationalist groups’ to oust Zelensky:

The absurdly written article tries to sketch an equivalence between Saakasvhili losing power after the 2008 war due to forced unfair ‘demands’ from Russia in the ensuing talks, to the same happening to Zelensky were he to cow to Russian ‘demands’ in the hypothetical approaching negotiations. Most interesting is how the article winds a desultory path around the issue without ever naming precisely why it is that the danger for Zelensky is so high. The author disingenuously refuses to name the elephant in the room: ideological Nazi nationalist groups which have Zelensky gripped tight by his ‘piano hand’.

But the main highlight came by way of the Italian Corriere della Sera paper, which broke the news, on the heels of Zelensky’s Rome jaunt, that the cargo-pantsed leader is in fact ready to negotiate an end to the war:

“Kyiv is ready for a ceasefire along the current front line, reports Corriere della Sera.

“The leadership of Ukraine is prepared for a ceasefire based on the current front line, but without recognizing the loss of territories, in exchange for security guarantees from the U.S. and entry into the EU, the newspaper writes.

“Zelensky’s European tour, which includes visits to Paris, Rome, and Berlin, is aimed at gaining support and guarantees for a swift accession to the EU.” – RVvoenkor

It’s important to note the article clarifies the only reason Zelensky even touched down in Italy for the second time in a month is because the vaunted NATO Ramstein summit was abruptly cancelled after Biden ditched out amid hurricane Milton barreling down on Florida.

But some sources plausibly posed a different reason:

“BREAKING: Postponed Ramstein Summit Exposes Growing Frustration with Zelensky Regime The Biden administration’s decision to delay the Ramstein summit, originally set to discuss further NATO support for Ukraine, signals deeper concerns about the conflict.

“According to ex-Pentagon analyst Karen Kwiatkowski, this postponement isn’t just due to Hurricane Milton. The Zelensky regime’s failing counteroffensive and strategic missteps have led to growing frustration in Washington and among NATO allies, as hopes of a military victory in Ukraine dwindle. With Ukraine struggling and the West running out of options, some suggest it’s time to rethink the strategy and seek diplomatic solutions.”

The article goes on to write of Zelensky’s push for a 2025 ceasefire:

“These words of Zelensky, of course, must be interpreted. He for one knows that September, as Grand Continent magazine has documented, was the month of greatest territorial losses for Ukraine since the first half of 2022: at least 468 square kilometers conquered by Moscow at the cost of about 1,000 Russian casualties per day, including deaths and injuries.”

Their clincher underscores my opening thesis:

“[Zelensky] for one knows that he can never officially give up the occupied territories (too unpopular for any Ukrainian politician to say). However, he would be ready for a cease-fire along the current line–without recognizing a new official border–in exchange for certain Western commitments. First, a security guarantee from the United States, along the lines of those extended by the Americans to Japan, South Korea and the Philippines.”

In short: Zelensky wants to appear as a stalwart who said valiantly “no” to the issue of territorial concessions. But using ‘creative language’, he’s open to NATO’s idea of presenting the loss of land as ‘temporary’ and officially unrecognized by Ukrainian authorities. Those who’ve read my last paywalled piece know all about this, as I explained it all in detail already—another reason to subscribe, as you get all this cutting edge information way before it ‘breaks’ on the big MSM stage….

Rumble link here.

As German’s Bundestag MP and prominent politician Sahra Wagenknecht calls for diplomacy instead of US missiles, German establishment is using her rhetoric to allow voters to express their discontent without any threat to power. More popular parties, like AfD, are less fortunate, because they are labeled ‘extremists’ for the very same views. RT’s Rachel Marsden explains.

By MK Bhadrakumar, Indian Punchline, 10/5/24

The US president Joe Biden sprang a surprise during a press gaggle with reporters outside the White House on Thursday (10/3/24) when he essentially didn’t rule out a potential meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin at the upcoming summits of the Group of 20 or the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. Biden sort of signalled, ‘Barkis is willing.’ As he put it, “I doubt that Putin will show up.”

As these White House gaggles generally go, Biden deliberately chose to respond to the TASS correspondent who asked the question, who of course knew that Biden knew that a trip by Putin to the Western Hemisphere to attend the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on November 18-19 is under active consideration in the Kremlin.

Biden and Putin have a lot to talk about but what adds up is that Biden signalled his interest in a conversation just a day after the massive Iranian missile strike against Israel, which came as a bolt from the blue and dramatically upended the legacy of his presidency.

Don’t be surprised if the Middle East crisis dominates a Biden-Putin summit in Rio de Janeiro — that is, if such a meeting takes place. The Ukraine war is coasting inexorably toward a Russian victory. Biden’s interest lies in making sure somehow that Ukraine’s capitulation — and NATO’s humiliation — get carried over to January 20. But Putin must cooperate. This is one thing. 

Meanwhile, what causes sleepless nights for Biden is the situation in the Middle East, which may cascade uncontrollably toward a regional war. Here, Putin is not the problem but can be the solution. This needs some explaining.

To be sure, policy differences have arisen between Biden and Netanyahu which is only to be expected given their sense of priorities respectively as politicians. It may seem the current crisis in the US-Israeli relationship is rather severe but how much of it is for the optics or, how little of it is for real is the moot point. Certainly, even a transition from war to a new diplomatic order is currently not in the cards.

However, the US and Israel are also joined at the hips. There is no question that Biden is allowing seamless assistance to flow to Israel in its war effort and for keeping its economy afloat. And the US is blocking all moves in the UN Security Council calling for a ceasefire, which means that peacemaking efforts cannot even begin.

Iran’s missile attack on Israel, in this context, needs to be put in perspective. Rather than an act of belligerence, it can be seen as a coercive measure to force Israel to abandon its ground operation in Lebanon. President Masoud Pezeshkian has disclosed that Iran exercised utmost restraint so far to stop Israeli atrocities only because of pleas by Western leaders that negotiations leading to a potential ceasefire in Gaza were at a crucial stage. But the West didn’t keep its promise leaving Iran no option but to act.

Passivity or inaction in the face of Israel’s relentless rampage against the Palestinian population aimed at ethnic cleansing created a distressing situation for Iran as the saviour of oppressed Muslims. Besides, Iran’s entire strategy of deterrence came under challenge too.

Biden is today like a cat on a hot tin roof. A Middle Eastern war is the last thing he wants. But he has no control over Netanyahu who is already plotting the next move on the escalation ladder. As for Iran, its sense of exasperation over western perfidy and moral bankruptcy is palpable. The US’ credibility has suffered a severe beating all across the West Asian region.

Enter Putin. On the Middle Eastern chessboard, Russia’s role assumes great importance. Russia-Iran relations touch an unprecedented level today. Russian statements have become highly critical of Israel in recent years. Russia has openly kept contacts with the groups constituting the Axis of Resistance.

Russian diplomacy is moving with a ‘big picture’ in mind to bring the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to the centre stage of international politics. In the past year, security consultations between Moscow and Tehran notably intensified. Some reports have appeared about Russia transferring advanced military equipment to strengthen Iran’s air defence capabilities.

Significantly, Russia was the only country that Iran informed in advance about its missile strike against Israel. According to the well-known US podcast Judge Napolitano: Judging Freedom (below), the Russian naval fleet in the East Mediterranean downed 13 Israeli missiles last week near Lebanon.

Apparently, a frantic Netanyahu has been trying to reach Putin on phone for the past few days but the call is yet to materialise. On the diplomatic track too, Russia has underscored the highest importance it attaches to the relations with Iran.

Clearly, the US senses the imperative to engage with Russia. What may be acceptable can be proportional strikes by the two West Asian protagonists, couched in carefully calibrated media campaigns. For example, targeted attacks on individual military installations, which would save face for Israel and avoid a major war — it’s a preferable scenario for Iran too, because it avoids unnecessary risks and preserves the trump cards for a game that promises to be long drawn out.

In the final analysis, what matters is the US-Israeli intentions. The Financial Times cited Israeli sources to the effect that the game plan is to inflict maximum damage to Iran’s economy so as to trigger the latent ‘protest potential’ of Iranian society. The Israeli hope is apparently that a credible regime change agenda will find resonance in Washington and attract US intervention.

Anyway, Biden’s move to engage with Putin suggests that a US military intervention is to be ruled out. On the other hand, the historic Russian—Iranian security pact, which is expected to be signed during the forthcoming BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, on October 20-22, gives Iran vastly more strategic depth to negotiate with the West.

Russia’s own interest lies in boosting Iran’s defence capability and pressing ahead with broad-based bilateral cooperation anchored on the economic agenda in the conditions under sanctions while on a parallel track advancing Iran’s integration into Moscow’s Greater Eurasia project. In short, Russia is uniquely placed today as a stakeholder in a stable and predictable Iran at peace with itself and the region.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told reporters in Moscow Thursday, “We are in the closest contact with Iran on the current situation. We share a wonderful experience of cooperation in various fields. I think this is the moment when our relations are particularly important.” By the way, President Pezeshkian received the visiting Prime Minister of Russia Mikhail Mishustin on Monday, September 30 in Tehran just hours ahead of the launch of the Iranian ballistic missiles against Israel.  

At a meeting of the UN Security Council dedicated to West Asian developments, Russia’s Permanent Representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzya stated on Wednesday, “As part of its mandate to maintain international peace and security, the UN Security Council must compel Israel to immediately cease hostilities. You and I also should make every effort to create conditions for a political and diplomatic settlement. In this context, we take note of Tehran’s signal that it is not willing to whip up confrontation any further.”

Interestingly, the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov lost no time to pick up the threads of Biden’s remark on a meeting with Putin. He said on Friday, “There have been no talks on this issue and as of today, at this moment, there are no prerequisites for it. However, the president has repeatedly stated that he remained open for all contacts.”