Trump, Russiagate & Covid: How Corporate Media Profits from Fear

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This is one of my occasional pieces of media critique. In this one I demonstrate an increasing pattern of corporate media profiting from making and keeping citizens afraid. It’s always imperative when the government or media is trying to make you afraid of something – whether it’s a foreign country/leader, another group of people or a virus – to always ask questions, including who benefits and profits off that fear. – Natylie

By Natylie Baldwin, OpEd News, 2/1/22

Corporate media tends to prioritize sensationalism and scary stories. There is even some evidence that news consumers prefer these types of stories, with the hypothesis being that they do so out of an evolutionary psychological need to prepare for dangers. Nonetheless, inundating consumers with scary stories under the guise of giving them what they want actually results in a distorted view of the world reflected back, leading news consumers to believe that scary things are more prevalent or more intense than they really are. This is antithetical to the purpose of journalism, which is to inform the citizenry so they can make sound decisions in their lives, particularly as it relates to public policy.

We have seen this sensationalist fear-pumping phenomenon over the course of decades where the media goes through a period of obsessive coverage of an issue from child abductions to sexual abuse to terrorism to Covid. Scientists say that a brain overcome with fear bypasses the rational mind and prevents one from thinking calmly and critically. According to the University of Minnesota: “Fear can interrupt processes in our brains that allow us to regulate emotions, read non-verbal cues and other information presented to us, reflect before acting, and act ethically. This impacts our thinking and decision-making in negative ways, leaving us susceptible to intense emotions and impulsive reactions. All of these effects can leave us unable to act appropriately.”

Moreover, being subjected to chronic fear creates long-term psychological and health problems, including brain damage. Constant cycles of fear-mongering by the media over a range of issues that almost seem designed to make a person feel that they best not leave their home unless fitted with a Hazmat suit, bear spray and an assault rifle are not a benign problem.

There is also the fact that fear manipulates people into certain behaviors and to accept certain policies they otherwise would not. This is not a new occurrence as Edward Bernays introduced several different forms of manipulation, based on the psychological theories of his famous uncle Sigmund Freud, into media and advertising as far back as the 1920s.

There are, in fact, several factors that encourage and reinforce the sensationalism and fear that has been growing within the media landscape over time. One factor has been the media’s historical reliance on advertising to make money rather than a focus on selling a quality news product. Newspapers, magazines, broadcasts, and internet programming have historically made much of their money from selling space to corporate advertisers, which consequently drives the motivation to produce content that will grab people’s attention in order to attract advertising dollars. Thus, the emphasis on sensationalist stories focused on sex, violence, danger and scandal. According to the Pew Research Center’s Journalism & Media project, as of 2014, “69% of all domestic news revenue is derived from advertising”

In the years since then, there has reportedly been a decrease in the proportion of traditional advertising revenue with more outlets relying on subscriptions to make money. Readers who pursue these subscriptions, however, are often looking for an outlet to echo their worldview rather than report factually and objectively. This has been primed by years of media outlets moving toward providing emotionally addictive and divisive echo chambers that appeal to a particular political party and focusing digital advertising to the preferences of that particular demographic rather than a neutral, fact-based presentation of the news.

Budget cuts and the speed of online technology have created another factor that contributes to sensationalist junk reporting. With online news and social media creating more pressure than ever to get stories up fast, combined with less advertising revenue from traditional print and television sources, churnalism – the use of information from press releases – is encouraged as reporters simply don’t have the luxury of taking days (or even hours) to hunt down the facts, details and nuances of a story, apply critical thinking and analysis, and submit it to rigorous fact checking.

A 2008 survey by Nick Davies found that 80 percent of articles in major British media like The Guardian and The Independent regurgitated corporate press releases or other news agency articles. Similarly, a 2014 survey by Business Wire revealed, the vast majority of journalists rely on press releases by PR firms to provide them with breaking news (77%) and factual support for articles (70%). In fact, churnalism was recognized as a serious enough problem by the Media Standards Trust to motivate the creation of a website, churnalism.com, which provides a “churn engine” that viewers can paste press releases into and find articles in the database that quote directly from or heavily rely upon “reproduced publicity material,” receiving a high score on the churnalism meter.

All this underscores that much of what passes for journalism in recent years is derivative and not based on original and on-the-ground reporting. This explains so many major news outlets repeating the same narrative in lockstep even when it turns out to be wrong.

If media actors take seriously their journalistic duty to inform accurately and objectively, then this is a problem that needs to be addressed. Otherwise, corporate media is not journalism but toxic infotainment. There is plenty of evidence that the corporate media has descended even more dangerously into infotainment in recent years.

How the Corporate Media Created the Trump Circus and Kept it Going for Profit

Going in to the 2016 election, Americans’ trust in the corporate media in general was low; this was reflected in dismal cable TV news ratings and paltry subscriptions to the New York Times.

The campaign and election of Donald Trump would soon change all of that, however. The Trump circus was actively encouraged by the media, which gave him an estimated $2 billion in free media time. Leslie Moonves, then-CEO of CBS, actually admitted during the 2016 campaign in reference to the ad revenue that the Trump candidacy was bringing in for the media: “It may not be good for America, but it’s damn good for CBS.”

Those media ratings and subscriptions were kept high during the Trump administration with the Russiagate conspiracy theory – eventually discredited – given constant coverage. Journalist and media critic Matt Taibbi explained in a 2017 interview with The Real News how keeping the Russiagate narrative going with constant innuendo that Trump was on the cusp of getting removed from office (remember how many times “the walls were closing in”?) ensured that viewers would keep tuning in and the money would keep rolling in for the media:

From the media standpoint, I think what people have to understand is that a lot of this is about money. The Russia story sells incredibly well and cable networks that traditionally have not made a lot of money are making a lot of money with this story. So I understand that the relentless emphasis on the Russia story makes a lot of sense from the networks’ point of view because it creates among viewers this impression that the fate of the nation may be decided any minute. This is like they’re selling it as a kind of Watergate sequel, so you have to tune in every night. Not just on election night, you have to keep tuning in.

In other words, it was bad melodrama but it kept fans coming back each day. Unfortunately, that isn’t the definition of journalism, it’s the definition of a soap opera. And it kept the nation divided and on edge as liberal Democrats had their fears that Trump, in cahoots with Vladimir Putin, was going to destroy American democracy and implant a fascist dictatorship reinforced daily. Trump supporters, on the other hand, felt that their hero was under siege and had to keep tuning in to their media outlets of choice for the latest.

Covid Rising

When Trump finally left office, cable news ratings, most notably CNN and MSNBC, plummeted. The Covid pandemic was soon decoupled from the Trump presidency and then ascended on its own to the trauma drama that had to be kept going, keeping people frightened, divided and controlled. A report revealed in November of 2020 that the media maintained a negative narrative about Covid even when real-life trends were more positive. One of the findings included the observation that “Stories of increasing COVID-19 cases outnumber stories of decreasing cases by a factor of 5.5 even during periods when new cases are declining.”

Meanwhile, the Covid pandemic and how to respond to it had become intensely politicized. People who had questions about the vaccines, which did not undergo the usual long-term testing and utilized new technology, or wanted to look into early treatment options were automatically labeled right-wing conspiracy theorists and hayseed Trumpers who imbibed horse paste. Those who largely accepted the hysteria and happily lined up for numerous shots without question and advocated for the unvaccinated to lose their jobshomes, and ability to participate in society were labeled the enlightened white hats. Instead of allowing an informed debate on how best to address the effects of the virus with the least amount of collateral damage, dividing lines were drawn and anyone who didn’t adhere to the narrative presented by one side or the other was the enemy. There was little middle ground with respect to most media coverage as keeping people tuning in for the latest case statistics and apocalyptic depictions became paramount.

At this point, a fair question to ask is: who benefits from continuing to stoke fear, both as it relates to Covid and more generally?

The Financial Beneficiaries of Covid Fearmongering

With respect to the Covid pandemic there are some parties who definitely have a financial stake in influencing the media to push, not only the most sensationalist fearmongering about the virus, but to push for specific solutions to the danger at the exclusion of other possible solutions. A popular video has made the rounds on YouTube that is a compilation of how many corporate media TV and cable shows are funded by Pfizer, the manufacturer of the most commonly used Covid vaccine in the U.S. and the only one of the three to have full approval from the FDA as opposed to just emergency use authorization.

Most major media are owned by one of six corporate conglomerates: AT&T/Time Warner (owner of CNN), Comcast (owner of NBC/MSNBC), Disney (owner of ABC), Newscorp (owner of Wall Street Journal and New York Post), Viacom (owner of CBS), and Fox Corp. Furthermore, there exists financial incest among corporate media owners and those with financial investments in the three Covid vaccines used in the U.S. Two of the biggest such financial entities with interests in the major media companies and all three of the vaccine makers are Blackrock Fund Advisors and Vanguard Group, Inc.

Blackrock is the world’s largest asset manager with approximately $9.5 trillion in assets. It also has the distinction of being the largest investor in weapons manufacturers. Vanguard is worth about $7 trillion in assets. Blackrock, with strong ties to the Biden administration, has received criticism in the past for using its power to evade government regulation and accountability. Meanwhile both Vanguard and Blackrock have come under scrutiny for their increasing control of so much of the corporate world through institutional ownership of stock as to be on the way toward monopolization.

Blackrock and Vanguard are the two largest investors in the ownership of The New York Times Company. They hold similar ownership stakes for all six of those corporate owners of mass media in the U.S.: AT&T (in top 2), Comcast (in top 3), Disney (in top 2), Viacom (in top 3), Newscorp (in top 3), and even Fox Corp. (in top 5). They also hold the highest institutional ownership stakes in PfizerModerna (in top 3), and Johnson and Johnson (in top 3).

Could this help explain the near-cult status of vaccinations as the solution to the Covid pandemic while early treatments – which until recently involved cheaper drugs that would not have provided a profit for these major corporate entities – were repressed? After all, we were told repeatedly that Covid policy was about saving lives. But if it was really about saving lives, then wouldn’t we want every possible weapon in our arsenal to combat Covid? Why was there downright hostility toward even looking into Ivermectin and other cheap medications that had been around for many years?

The fact that fear – especially a constant state of fear – can interfere with a person’s ability to think clearly, critically, and ethically was a convenient advantage for those with a financial stake in both the media – the facilitator of fear – and the vaccine makers – the profit-making providers of the purported only solution to the cause of the fear.

How Average People Were Hurt by Covid Fearmongering

In addition to the negative long-term psychological affects mentioned above that can result from being subjected to constant fear, many Americans were adversely affected in other significant ways by extreme Covid measures that were implemented due to that constantly stoked fear among the public.

Many Americans lost their financial security through a reduction in hours or complete loss of jobs or small businesses due to lockdowns and other long-term restrictions. A recent comprehensive article on the negative effects of Covid policy on the poor and working class published at The Grayzone reported:

In the US in 2020, 40 percent of people making under $40,000 annually lost work, and almost three million women were driven out of the workforce due to an inability to balance work and caregiving and virtual learning obligations for children who could no longer attend in-person school or daycare.

It was estimated that in 2020 alone, almost 30 percent of small businesses – about 9.4 million – closed either temporarily or permanently.

The CARES Act, passed quickly in an atmosphere of social panic that required the government to help its citizens, actually resulted in the transfer of billions of dollars to the wealthiest Americans. This included a corporate bailout fund overseen by the Treasury Department that could be leveraged to trillions of dollars, a $90 billion tax break for Americans in 2020 with incomes over $1 million, $243 million in tax subsidies for large corporations, and $10 billion in fees made by banks to assist small business owners in getting government loans that were supposed to help them through the pandemic.

Americans also lost many of their most basic rights and liberties as well as their sense of being recognized as human beings with inherent dignity and worth. Instead, the new norm has been to increasingly view our fellow humans as disease vectors who should be shamed for making health choices that differ from the groupthink regardless of the reasons.

What started out as lockdowns meant to “slow the spread” and not overwhelm hospitals for a couple of weeks, based largely on ultimately discredited modeling projections from a British academic with a history of discredited projections for viruses, turned into rolling lockdowns depending on the ebb and flow of Covid cases for nearly two years. Eventually many other western countries like Austria and Germany – who have touted themselves as democracies for the rest of the world to emulate – began implementing what amounts to Covid-apartheid regimes for the unvaccinated in response to a virus with an overall 0.15 fatality rate and a fatality rate of .05 for the non-elderly.

Meanwhile, the costs in terms of the deterioration in general mental and physical health have been disastrous as further figures from The Grayzone article reflect:

As lockdowns drove inequality in the US, millions skipped routine medical care such as childhood vaccinations and cancer screenings, because the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) recommended that hospitals suspend non-essential and elective procedures. In May 2021, almost ten million routine screenings were missed in the United States, while other preventative health visits declined on a mass scale due to elective procedure suspensions, which may also lead to worsening public health problems in the long-term.

Due to the CDC’s recommendations, 1.4 million medical workers lost their jobs in April 2020. One medical record company estimated that screening for breast, colorectal, and cervical cancers dropped by 80% to 90% during March and April of 2020 compared to the same months in 2019. Now, the US is struggling with a surge of cancers and other ailments that went undetected because of overzealous and overly broad lockdowns.

Mental health issues have also been exacerbated by Covid policies. Depression and anxiety increased, along with opioid overdoses, and domestic and child abuse. Suicide attempts among teenagers and young adults have also risen significantly during the pandemic.

Media Accountability

Most media malpractice, from WMDs to Russiagate to Covid, reflects an official government narrative. In Manufacturing Consent: The Political Economy of the Mass Media, Edward Herman and Noam Chomsky describe how journalists often have a close source relationship with government officials who work for various agencies because it’s an efficient and cost-effective way to obtain information about crime, disasters, regulations and other activity presided over or handled by government authorities. In turn, we know that those government authorities serve the interests of their rich and powerful donors. Sometimes those government authorities are even appointed from the donor class.

The job of journalists – representing the mythical fourth estate – is supposed to be informing citizens and providing a check on abuse by the powerful. These days what passes for journalism seems to be facilitating that abuse by repeating the narrative of the corporate and government abusers and shutting down debate.

If recent history is any indication, within a couple of years there will be a few articles here and there reluctantly asking “How did we get taken in by the nonsense?” But no lessons will actually be learned, no one responsible will actually be held accountable, and the government and media will move on to the next sensational distortion that will harm regular people while benefiting the powerful.

US & NATO Written Responses to Russia Leaked to Media

The Spanish newspaper El Pais obtained a copy of the written responses provided to Russia by both NATO and the U.S. The U.S. rejected Russia’s main security concerns regarding NATO expansion but offered significant negotiations on arms control issues. The responses can be read here.

Below is an excerpt from a summary report by Antiwar.com:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been concerned that US MK 41 missile launchers that are deployed in Romania can fit Tomahawk missiles that could potentially target Russia. In the written response, the US said that it was willing to discuss a “transparency mechanism to confirm the absence of Tomohawk cruise missiles” at US bases in Romania and Poland.

In exchange for the verification method, which would likely be in the form of on-site inspections, the US wants Russia to offer “reciprocal transparency measures on two ground-launched missile bases of our choosing in Russia.”

Russia is also seeking a mutual ban on the deployment of short and medium-range missiles in Europe that were previously prohibited under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which the US withdrew from in 2019. The US said it’s prepared to start talks on “arms control for ground-based intermediate and shorter-range missiles and their launchers.”

…Another major concern for Moscow is the potential deployment of US missiles and combat troops to Ukraine. The US said it’s “prepared to discuss conditions-based reciprocal transparency measures and reciprocal commitments by both the United States and Russia to refrain from deploying offensive ground-based missile systems and permanent forces with a combat mission on the territory of Ukraine.”

Read full article here.

Russia analyst Andrey Baklitskiy published a thread on Twitter yesterday breaking down the responses and how they will likely be viewed in Moscow. I have embedded a link to the thread below:

https://mobile.twitter.com/baklitskiy/status/1488898262937518091

Are We On the Brink of War? An Interview With Dmitri Trenin

Interview by Elena Chernenko originally appeared in Kommersant, reprinted by Carnegie Moscow Center, 1/29/22

ARE WE ON THE BRINK OF AN ACTUAL MILITARY CONFLICT?

In the immediate future, say, the coming month, I think the answer is no. As for the longer term, I have questions for both sides.

A question for the West: Could the government in Kyiv—its constituent parts or some elements it doesn’t fully control, acting in concert with some shadow players—stage a provocation to draw Russia in? The answer to this question is likely negative. This scenario won’t do much good for those standing behind Kyiv. Any such provocation is certain to end with the defeat of Ukrainian forces.

The scale of this defeat for Ukraine may vary. And however high the cost of victory would be for Russia, that wouldn’t make up for the colossal reputational losses the Joe Biden administration would sustain, particularly on the domestic arena. After the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, losing another prominent regional ally would be extremely dangerous for the administration, especially in the domestic political context. In addition, there is the NATO context and the factor of U.S. international prestige. After all, countries like China and Iran have been monitoring the situation closely.

IN OTHER WORDS, YOU BELIEVE THE GEORGIAN SCENARIO TO BE UNLIKELY?

Yes. I believe that the Americans have sufficient control over the Ukrainian government and other elements active in Ukraine [to make a provocation unlikely].

AND WHAT’S YOUR QUESTION FOR RUSSIA?

I have many questions for Russia. I think everything comes down to how the commander-in-chief, the president of the Russian Federation appraises what’s happening right before our eyes. I am talking about all of the latest diplomatic efforts supplemented with military moves and allusions to measures in the military and military technology realm. Indeed, there are many questions here, since we can’t know what exactly is on Vladimir Putin’s mind. What’s his plan? What’s his strategy? What options does he see for various situational scenarios? It’s very hard to judge from the outside.

What’s clear is that the demands that Russia has advanced and describes as imperative cannot be met by the West, at least not as they were framed. And since that’s obvious to everyone, the president certainly knows it too. The question is what his answer will be to the rejection of those demands.

SO YOU ARE RULING OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE UNITED STATES AND ITS ALLIES COULD IN SOME FORM AGREE TO RUSSIA’S DEMAND TO GUARANTEE NATO NON-EXPANSION?

There will be no legally binding agreement on non-expansion. Nor will there be written political guarantees—as Russia insists—that Ukraine and Georgia will “never ever” be admitted to NATO. The question is how Russia will act when it becomes completely clear that the demands that Russian officials have frequently described as an “absolute imperative” will be rejected by Western states.

WHAT DO YOU SEE AS POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR HOW THE SITUATION MIGHT DEVELOP?

The first scenario is ostensibly a logical one. It will be announced that we actually didn’t expect them to agree to that [NATO non-expansion and other demands – Kommersant]. We are sensible people and understand everything perfectly, but we had to break the impasse, shake up the Western political and diplomatic scene, especially in Washington, and demonstrate our seriousness to them. And we managed to get something out of it. First, they didn’t reject our proposals outright, but started responding. Moreover, they agreed to submit a written response to our proposals, which is a major step. This means that they effectively recognize the seriousness of our concerns and demands.

Second, they agreed to discuss important subjects that they previously ignored, for instance, our proposals for a moratorium on the deployment of INF-range missiles. They previously wouldn’t even hear of it, but now they themselves propose to negotiate. They are also prepared to discuss limitations on military exercises in close proximity to our borders: all those naval and air force training exercises, including the ones imitating nuclear missile launches. We have proposed mutual restraint in this sphere numerous times, but they have only taken heed now. There have been responses to some other Russian initiatives as well.

Russia presented its demands in such a decisive fashion to induce Western powers, primarily the United States, to take action that benefits us from the security standpoint. It was important for us not just to diffuse the situation on our Western borders but, above all, to force the West to finally negotiate with us on issues of European security.

This has already happened: a dialogue is underway. For the first time since talks on German reunification, the West has agreed to discuss European security with Russia. From 1999 to 2021, European security hinged on the goodwill—or its opposite—of the United States, which relied on NATO as its main instrument. Now, just as at the times of the Yalta and Helsinki summits, the United States and NATO have been negotiating European security with Russia, so the security rests on two pillars rather than one.

UNDER THIS SCENARIO, SHOULD WE EXPECT THE WEST AND PRIMARILY THE UNITED STATES TO PUT MEANINGFUL PRESSURE ON UKRAINE TO COMPLY WITH THE MINSK AGREEMENTS [AIMED AT ENDING THE CONFLICT IN EASTERN UKRAINE]?

I really hope so but wouldn’t count on it at this time. The Minsk Agreements are a Russian diplomatic victory that followed on from the military victory that the Donbas militia and its supporters scored against the Ukrainian military in February 2015. I am not sure that the United States realizes that the key to diffusing the situation around Ukraine is complying with the Minsk Agreements, although this is certainly the case.

Essentially, these agreements can still be implemented. Donbas can return to Ukraine under the terms of the Minsk Agreements, which would guarantee the rights of those living in the area and preserve Ukraine’s territorial integrity within Russia-recognized borders. But for the time being, I don’t see willingness from Washington to pressure Kyiv into complying with the Minsk Agreements.

The lack of resolution in the Donbas conflict is the best formal pretext for continuing to put pressure on Moscow. In recent years, U.S. policies have been aimed at intensifying pressure on Russia, and Ukraine is but one element of that. If I understand the Western strategy correctly, this pressure will peak when the transfer of power in Russia gets underway. Amid its confrontation with China, the United States needs a more compliant Russia. But that’s a long-term goal.

OKAY, THAT’S THE FIRST SCENARIO. WE’VE SHAKEN THINGS UP, AND WE SETTLE FOR WHAT THEY GIVE US.

Yes. In this regard, we could also remember that politics is the art of the possible, as well as a host of other arguments in support of this scenario.

As for the second scenario, it assumes that things have actually gotten way too serious, and we’ve reached the point when new politics have come to replace the old ones in Russia. In my book The New Balance of Forces, I wrote that Russia’s foreign policy—both under Yeltsin and Putin, including the Medvedev presidency—rested on the shoulders of Gorbachev’s policies. In one way or another, Russia continued integrating into the West, finding its place there, searching for a certain balance of interests in relations with the United States and other Western countries, with an emphasis on cooperation.

But what if this course is being radically overhauled now? This relates not only to foreign policy, but Russia’s general direction. What if we are distancing ourselves from the period in which the main goal was to integrate into the world at large, albeit on our own terms? What’s more, what if the severance from the West that President Putin talked about in response to the prospects of U.S. “sanctions from hell” becomes reality? What if Russia eventually embarks on a completely different foreign and domestic policy course, which would also include the economic, social, and ideological spheres?

Perhaps a separate “Russian project” is already being constructed, and it no longer anticipates integration into the world where the West still plays a leading, though not dominant, role. Given its rupture with the West, Russia may establish much closer and even de facto allied relations with key non-Western states, primarily with China, as well as Iran and U.S. adversaries in the Western hemisphere: Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua. Under this scenario, Russia may conduct a significantly more active foreign policy. Moscow may start doing the very thing that the West has so often accused it of doing.

ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT CREATING SPHERES OF INFLUENCE?

Both spheres of influence and the right to use force to overthrow unwanted regimes. For instance, the United States overthrew a dictatorial regime in Iraq. True, they found no weapons of mass destruction there, but, on the whole, the West believes that it did a good thing by eliminating a dictator.

I’ve noticed now that Russian diplomats and the foreign minister have been increasingly using the term “regime,” especially when talking about the Ukrainian government. Regime is something illegitimate, at least from a moral standpoint. And if the government is illegitimate, why not help the forces of good to overthrow it?

I have a feeling that Russia has been looking for a new starting point around which to reassemble territories in the post-Soviet space. A variety of options could be employed here. For instance, Russia could expand on the concept of the Union State [which currently consists of Russia and Belarus] by incorporating new territories into it. Loosely speaking, if the Russian authorities come to the conclusion that it’s impossible to get the Minsk Agreements implemented, they may recognize the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk republics as one or two states and incorporate them into the Union State of Russia and Belarus. Hypothetically, that entity may also include Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

This will happen if Russia decides to destroy what it dislikes and use force since it can’t get what it wants nicely. The United States most likely won’t be able to do much about it. It won’t engage in a direct confrontation with Russia.

YOU HAVE DESCRIBED TWO VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. TO DRAW A CHESS ANALOGY, THE FIRST ONE IS А SHREWD GAME WITH DELIBERATE MOVES AND CALCULATED RISKS. IN THE SECOND, ONE OF THE PLAYERS SIMPLY OVERTURNS THE CHESSBOARD AND ALL THE PIECES ON IT. SO WHICH OF THE SCENARIOS IS BEING IMPLEMENTED NOW?

I don’t know. Only one person in our country can answer this question. It’s impossible to figure out his answer from the outside. Russia has the capabilities to implement both scenarios. The Russian state and its armed forces will be prepared to accomplish any task assigned to them.

Both scenarios come at a certain cost and involve known risks. In the first case, we are talking about reputational losses, both internationally and domestically. If Russia abandons its demands, which it declared to be an “absolute imperative,” it may be accused of bluffing. Great powers don’t bluff. If Russia is bluffing, it’s descending to some other level in terms of its global status. But even if some sections of the population view this negatively, it’s no big deal overall. The government’s position at home is quite strong. It will be more of a blow to its international reputation: Russia may be taken less seriously in the future. But we can live with this too.

The second scenario, which entails the use of force, calls for a very serious rupture in relations, including within Russia itself. It would destroy the hopes of a small but influential part of the Russian elite that still hopes that relations with the West will be normalized someday. In the radical form described by some Western think tanks— the “Ukraine occupation” scenario—it would also test broader segments of the Russian population.

THIS WILL HAPPEN IF RUSSIA GOES BEYOND RECOGNIZING THE INDEPENDENCE OF THE DONETSK AND LUHANSK PEOPLE’S REPUBLICS?

Yes, if the Russian authorities decide that the only guarantee of Ukraine not joining NATO and not having American missile bases on its territory is Russia’s direct control over Ukraine or establishing a friendly regime in Kyiv. In any event, the use of force scenario won’t be similar to what happened in Crimea, where not a single shot was fired, and there were no casualties.

DO YOU BELIEVE THIS [USE OF FORCE] SCENARIO TO BE AT ALL PROBABLE?

I think it’s unlikely. It’s fraught with many negative consequences, and great human and financial losses.

Read full interview here.