At the end of a special televised announcement on the evening of February 21 (Russia time), Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would formally recognize the DPR and LPR rebel states of East Ukraine as independent. He further instructed the foreign ministry to establish formal ties with the republics and for the Russian military to prepare to send a peacekeeping force to the republics. This all occurred after a meeting of Russia’s Security Council, which recommended the action.

As Paul Robinson commented right after the speech, Putin seemed frustrated that it had come to this. I agree that this was not the option that Putin wanted for the Donbas. For over six years, Russia has been pushing for the implementation of the Minsk Agreements that would have resolved the civil war by having the Kiev government grant autonomy to the Donbas. The agreement was signed by France and Germany as well as Ukraine and Russia. However, it has been clear that the Kiev government is politically unwilling to implement the agreement as written. This is largely due to the fact that any leader of Ukraine, even if he wanted to, cannot implement the agreement due to the outsized influence of the ultranationalist forces who have demonstrated their willingness to use violence to block any moves that are perceived as concessions to the Donbas residents or Russia.

It has also been clear, especially after the recent failed Normandy meeting, that Kiev will not budge on its recalcitrance regarding the Minsk Agreement and, more importantly, France and Germany are not willing to push Kiev to honor it, though they are co-signers. Washington is also not willing to do this, though it could. Apparently Moscow feels it waited long enough to realize that the Minsk Agreement is a dead end. From Moscow’s perspective, it is clear that if Kiev is unwilling to implement Minsk then the only other way of trying to head off a nasty escalation of the war in Donbas – which has lasted for eight years, has already killed thousands and in which violence has escalated in recent weeks – is for Kiev to let them go because they don’t accept them anyway. To facilitate this, Russia has recognized their independence and is taking the additional aforementioned steps in effort to protect them from any more aggression from Kiev. According to Russian media reports, it is estimated that between 100,000 and 150,000 Ukrainian troops are amassed near Donbas since December.

Another reason Russia did not want to take this option is that the Russian leadership knows perfectly well that this move will trigger the sanctions that Washington has clearly been itching to let loose. White House spokesperson Jen Psaki has already stated that economic sanctions will be taken up against any person or entity seeking to do business with the LPR and DPR. An NPR reporter has stated publicly that, on a call with reporters today, the Biden White House said it “will likely deploy sanctions against Russia tomorrow, responding to today’s “recognition gambit…” There are (as yet) unconfirmed reports that Europe will wait to see what Russia does next before implementing sanctions.

Meanwhile, the Foreign Minister of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, has stated that Ukraine has requested an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council regarding Russia’s move. The OSCE has condemned Russia’s actions in a joint statement by the OSCE Chairman-in-Office and Foreign Minister of Poland, Zbigniew Rau, OSCE Secretary General Helga Maria Schmid, OSCE Parliamentary Assembly President Cederfelt and OSCE Parliamentary Assembly Secretary General Montella:

“This step is a breach of international law and fundamental OSCE principles and runs counter to the Minsk agreements.

As all OSCE participating States, Russia has undertaken commitments to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of others. We call on Russia to immediately rescind this decision.

The recognition will only fuel further tensions and will separate the populations living in these regions from the rest of their country, Ukraine.”

Below is some of the reaction in Donetsk to the news: