RT.com, 3/29/22
After a month of hostilities, Kiev has come up with a written proposal for what it wants from a peace treaty
On Tuesday, Turkey hosted the latest round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. The Ukrainian side has come up with a written proposal for a peace treaty between the two nations, Russia’s top negotiator Vladimir Medinsky told the media after the session, which he described as “substantive.”
The proposal will now be relayed to Russian President Vladimir Putin for consideration, he added. Here is what else emerged after the talks.
Russian offensive scaled down
An immediate practical effect of the talks will be a de-escalation of military activities in some parts of Ukraine, the Russian Defense Ministry announced. In particular, it pledged to “dramatically” reduce its operations near the cities of Chernigov and the capital, Kiev.
NATO-like security guarantees
David Arakhamia, Medinsky’s opposite number in the Ukrainian delegation, said Kiev had sought a security guarantee similar to that contained in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. He named Russia, the UK, China, the US, Turkey, France, Canada, Italy, Poland and Israel as possible providers. Some of them have given their preliminary agreement, he said.
No military blocs and non-nuclear Ukraine
In the proposal, Ukraine pledged not to join any military alliance, not to host foreign military bases or foreign troops, Medinsky said. Even military exercises would require prior approval from guarantors, according to the proposal. Kiev also pledged not to seek to obtain weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons, the official added. But in return Ukraine wants Russia not to object to its joining the EU one day.
Crimea, Donbass unresolved
According to Medinsky, Kiev offered to pledge not to use military force in an attempt to restore its sovereignty over Ukraine or the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Lugansk. He stressed that Moscow did not commit to having the Ukrainian wording in the final version of any peace treaty.
Russia considers Crimea to be part of its territory and wants Kiev to recognize it as such. It also recognized the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics as sovereign states days before launching its attack against Ukraine last month.
Borders in question
Medinsky said Kiev did not state whether it would relinquish its territorial claim to Donetsk and Lugansk. Prior to February, Ukraine controlled a large portion of both Donetsk and Lugansk and considers the regions to be its own territory.
Arakhamia made it clear that Kiev will assert sovereignty over the entire territory that Ukraine had when it declared independence in 1991, saying there could be no compromise on this point.
New conditions for Zelensky-Putin meeting
Moscow has agreed to organize a meeting between Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky as part of the final phase of negotiations over the future peace treaty. The Kremlin had previously said that such a meeting could only be scheduled once the document was finalized and inked by the respective foreign ministers. Holding a summit as soon as possible would speed up the resolution, Medinsky believes.
As far as I can tell, the main change in position at this point is they’re considering trading away NATO basing. NATO membership was already deemed unrealistic, at least verbally. The trade for giving away NATO basing would be security guarantees. Unclear how Ukraine would get security guarantees without bases, unless a mutually accepted neutral party could be found to commit to a peacekeeping role.
On the plus side, Russian fears / complaints of encroaching NATO deployment were one of the most emphasized justifications for the war. If this element of a deal can be made to work, it would be an accomplishment of sorts, if painfully expensive for all sides. It could be a stopping point, if one were desired.
Once the questions of NATO exclusion and mutual security are settled, perhaps territorial lines could be based on local plebiscites. This would not be a simple matter, given the uncertainty of return of refugees. Another matter would be the avoidance of enclaves, which, as we saw in the former Yugoslavia, became subject to ‘ethnic cleansing’. As long as there is a strong ultra-nationalist constituency like the Pravy Sektor, Azovs, etc., these enclaves and the principle of self determination would be at risk.
Former high level Reagan appointee, and current critic of belligerent and economically senseless policies, Paul Craig Roberts, expresses concerns that the Russian administration is about to blunder with concessions: https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2022/03/29/does-the-kremlin-know-what-it-is-doing/