One thought on “Alexander Mercouris: Austria Chancellor Nehammer Goes to Moscow as Russia Advances on Kramatorsk, More Surrenders in Mariupol”
Interesting listener comment/rumor relayed by Mercouris about Ukrainian members of the French Foreign legion leaving to return to Ukraine.
Re: Austrian PM visit to Moscow … wild guess, would make more sense to me if it were for trade issues, perhaps hoping for a softening of Russian responses taken against the EU sanctions regime. Austria is non-NATO, but is a key gas hub and otherwise a first-class EU state with financial interests in second-class EU states connected to the black sea pipelines (roughly everyone up to Hungary).
FWIW, european natgas futures for 2022-2023 have changed little since mid March (100 Euro/MWh, compare to long-term pre-covid levels around 20-25), so no acute panic but seems the pricing of the ’22-’23 season is in large part locked in. More concerning, the 2023-2024 european natgas futures are steadily marching up. (now up to 70 Euro/MWh, compare to around 45 prewar).
The impact of all this is delayed. Let it burn for one year and it will already be “very painful” — read: incumbents kicked out in elections wherever they are held. Two years is quite simply catastrophic, will cause major rearrangements in industry and agriculture.
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ref (scroll down to Q4 ’23 for a representative figure of the 2023-2024 season pricing):
Interesting listener comment/rumor relayed by Mercouris about Ukrainian members of the French Foreign legion leaving to return to Ukraine.
Re: Austrian PM visit to Moscow … wild guess, would make more sense to me if it were for trade issues, perhaps hoping for a softening of Russian responses taken against the EU sanctions regime. Austria is non-NATO, but is a key gas hub and otherwise a first-class EU state with financial interests in second-class EU states connected to the black sea pipelines (roughly everyone up to Hungary).
FWIW, european natgas futures for 2022-2023 have changed little since mid March (100 Euro/MWh, compare to long-term pre-covid levels around 20-25), so no acute panic but seems the pricing of the ’22-’23 season is in large part locked in. More concerning, the 2023-2024 european natgas futures are steadily marching up. (now up to 70 Euro/MWh, compare to around 45 prewar).
The impact of all this is delayed. Let it burn for one year and it will already be “very painful” — read: incumbents kicked out in elections wherever they are held. Two years is quite simply catastrophic, will cause major rearrangements in industry and agriculture.
——–
ref (scroll down to Q4 ’23 for a representative figure of the 2023-2024 season pricing):
https://www.theice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5889447&span=3