By Prof. Oliver Boyd-Barrett, Substack, 9/17/22

My summary (of Alexander Mercouris video)

Focuses on Putin’s press conference at the SCO summit in Samarkand. He addressed criticisms of the SMO in Ukraine, gave some hints as to what may come, and dealt with some implicit criticisms of himself.

Ukraine Battlefields

Not much happening. More Ukrainian attempts on Russian positions in Kherson. Each has failed. The bridgehead at Adievka may be in its final days because of the stronger current arising from Russia’s destruction of the upriver dam. The Ukrainians have persisted with this bridgehead despite having gained nothing from it (usual demonstration of PR heroics over longer term interest? – OBB)

Further east there has been a flurry of rumors that Russia had withdrawn from the eastern part of Kupiansk (?) on the Ostol river, but this morning it is clear that the area is still under Russian control.

Is this area of eastern Kharkiv essential for Russia? Will it complicate Russian supplies? The British MOD repeated that narrative this morning. Mercouris considers the claim to be nonsense. He notes that Donetsk and Lugansk border on Russia’s Rostov oblast, together with one other. Rostov-on-Don is the official capital of southern Russia, heavily industrialized, and also very agricultural. The majority of Russian supplies go directly from Rostov to the Donbass, and Russia is not at all dependent on Kharkiv.

In the 2014-2015 war between the coup regime’s army and the people’s republics, western powers were so concerned about supplies from Rostov that the entire Ukrainian plan at that time, which failed, was to gain control of the border with Russia and cut off supplies to Donbass from Rostov. This led directly to a battle at which the Ukrainian army suffered a catastrophic defeat.

We are getting more and more information that Russian reinforcements are rolling in to the northern Lugansk region. In the ZPNN region there is much debate about a possible Ukrainian offensive, but nothing so far has happened: the longer Ukraine delays, the more difficult it will become because Russians are reinforcing fast and the climatic conditions will become more challenging for movements across the Dnieper. Likewise in the south Donetsk city of Uglada. There is a lot of news about advances by Donetsk militia around the ring road of Donetsk City. There was a failed Ukrainian attempt to retake Peskiy, at which Ukraine suffered heavy loss of life. There is continuing heavy fighting around Bakhmut.

Putin’s Press Conference (with Russian media only) at Samarkand

Putin received pointed questions from Russian journalists at this televised conference. Mercouris reads from the Kremlin’s own transcript. Western media make lots of claims about what is said at these kinds of event, and their accounts are often based on mistranslations, or taken badly out of context, or simply invented. Russian is a very subtle, nuanced language, and the Kremlin is very careful when it translates into English, seeking to achieve the same nuances that Putin sought to give.

Putin talked about the SMO in response to recent Ukrainian raids, even on Russian soil, and answers a question as to why Russia’s response is restrained. Putin said there is nothing new about this. Western countries cultivate the idea of Russian collapse. They have had a long standing plan, going back to WW1, to split Russia up. Mercouris notes that Putin conflates the Soviet Union with “historical Russia” of which Russia is its nucleus. Let the West address their own challenges, Putin says, and most likely they are doing harm to themselves. He knows the western objective and says it wont succeed, nor will the west’s attempt to pit Russia against China. The west’s trying to do these things will work against the west’s own interests. But they have always been seeking Russia’s dissolution. It is unfortunate they decided to use Ukraine for these purposes.

The SMO was designed to prevent events taking this turn. For Russia, Mercouris explains, the SMO is an existential matter. Russian authorities cannot allow the SMO to fail. Russia has the resources to make it succeed. The ultimate outcome will be Russian victory. Putin would not say Russia’s response is “restrained,” but notes that in the course of the military operation Russia has encountered terrorist attacks on Russian civilian infrastructure. Russia was at first quite restrained but this will not last forever. Recently Russian armed forces have struck blows against Ukraine’s energy system – Putin calls them “warning shots.” If such Ukrainian attacks continue, Russia will respond more forcefully.

Terrorist attacks are a serious matter; it is in the use of terrorist methods such as has been seen in the killing of officials in the liberated territories and attacks on administrative buildings for which the Ukrainian government has taken credit. We even see attempts at perpetrating terrorist attacks on the Russian federation, including attacks near Russian nuclear facilities and nuclear power stations. These may not have been reported. He is not even talking about the ZPNN. Those attacks have been perpetrated by Ukraine, something which has now been acknowledged by Ukrainian officials and by the NYT. Putin says Russia is monitoring the situation and will respond if Ukraine fails to realize that this behavior is unacceptable – they are not different from terrorist attacks – the clearest indicator that the possibility of upgrading the SMO to the status of an ATO is probably about to happen.

This does not necessarily mean a Russian mass mobilization, but may involve calling up reserves. What it does mean is that if the SMO is upgraded to an ATO, then that will give Russian military the freedom to attack civilian infrastructure, perhaps to target Ukrainian military leaders and security officials and perhaps even the political leadership, things which up to this moment in time they have not been permitted to do.

There is a discussion about the special security guarantees that Ukraine is demanding from the West. Putin hasn’t even bothered to read them. If the West were to take them seriously we would be in World War 3 (says Mercouris). Talking about the SMO plan, Putin says the plan will not be adjusted. It leaves open the possibility of an upgrade to an ATO but the terms of reference may still be the same. The General Staff takes real-time decisions: but the main goal is to liberate the entire territory of the Donbass which continues despite Ukrainian attempts to limit the Russian offensive, which is slow and gradual. Putin points out that Russia is fighting with “contracted forces,” not the Russian Army as such. Russia is not “in a rush.” The main task remains the same. So secondary objectives, such as holding on to Kharkiv, are less important. Putin notes Kiev’s active counteroffensive and says “let us see how it unfolds, and how it ends,” and notes that Ukraine has dropped negotiations in favor of winning on the battlefield – let them try!, says Putin.

Mercouris makes an aside to an article by Gordon Hahn, where Hahn discusses a paper written by Ukraine’s forces commander. It is now unequivocally the case that the Ukrainian command is not in favor of these multiple Ukrainian offensives. This demonstrates the rift between Zelenskiy in concert with his British and American advisors, who appear to be throwing away the very reserves that the Ukrainian command want to build up, and his military leaders. Putin clearly thinks Zelenskiy’s approach is the wrong one, that the Ukrainian offensives will ultimately fail.

The press conference ended with an angry debate about Ukraine’s failure to deliver its grain supplies to the Global South (they have mainly gone, instead, to the EU). Ukraine’s exports are now almost entirely agricultural.

What is the ultimate take? Putin is unfazed by Ukraine’s counteroffensive. He is confident in Russia’s General Staff. His main focus is the liberation of Donbass, which is proceeding steadily. It is highly likely that the SMO will be upgraded to ATO. He is clearly indicating that Ukraine’s conduct is setting up a situation that demands this response. This may happen very soon; – Shoigu is due to visit the Russian parliament on Monday and may announce something there.

Russia and India (based on both Russian and Indian transcripts)

Putin’s meeting in Samarkand with Indian premier Modi makes it clear that the relationship between India and Russia is coming to be second in importance to the relationship between Russia and China.

India and China appear to welcome these developments, despite their border tensions. Their mutual links to Russia will help them manage these border issues.

British media are trying to make out that there are problems with these talks between Russia and India (as they did the day before with the discussion between Putin and Jinping, by focusing just on one word – “concerns” – totally out of context). This time, the focus is on some of Modi’s words that British media have interpreted as a rebuke to Putin for the war in Ukraine. The reality is the diametric opposite.

The actual exchange between Putin and Modi shows that Putin said warm things about India, Modi, and the SCO and then specifically addressed the question of Ukraine. He said that he knew Modi’s position on Ukraine and that Russia would do its best to end the war as soon as possible. But it cannot, because Zelenskiy has chosen the objective of battlefield victory over negotiation. To this, Modi says that he knows that today’s era is not one of war, and acknowledges that he and Putin have talked before of these matters and that they will talk further.

It is clear that Modi is not criticizing Putin. He understands that Putin is trying to bring an end to the war but that Ukraine is refusing to negotiate. Unlike Zelenskiy, both Putin and Modi are saying they are committed to diplomacy. Modi was very careful to take an outwardly neutral position on the war, thankful for Ukraine’s efforts to allow the departure of Indian students from Ukraine at the beginning of the war. But if he is critical of anybody he is critical of Ukraine, not Russia. Modi also says that the relationship between India and Russia has strengthened, and has evolved over many decades; Russia’s relationship with India has been and in the eyes of the world is an “unbreakable friendship:” – the journey for both started at the same time. Modi and Putin have had a personal relationship for over twenty years and both men are constantly working to improve it for the benefit of their respective peoples.

Syria and Turkey

Erdogan of Turkey has said that had Assad attended the SCO, Erdogan would have been willing to meet with him, confirming that the rapprochement between Turkey and Syria is intensifying. A summit meeting between the two is in the works. This is a game changer with respect to developments in the Middle East.

*Link to transcript of Putin’s press conference following SCO conference here.