The Cuban missile crisis of October 1962 was the most dangerous crisis of the nuclear age. U.S., Russian and Cuban leaders at the time felt themselves close to the brink of catastrophic nuclear war. Research on the crisis over the past quarter century suggests that the risk of nuclear war in October 1962 was even greater than those leaders–John F. Kennedy, Nikita Khrushchev and Fidel Castro–believed at the time. In the 2004 Academy Award-winning documentary film by Errol Morris, “The Fog of War,” former U.S. Defense Secretary Robert McNamara held up his thumb and forefinger in front of the camera until they almost touched. “We came this close to nuclear war,” he said, “this close to the total destruction” of the U.S., Soviet Union, Cuba and much of the rest of the world as well. The world as we know it could have been destroyed in October 1962 and a primary reason why this did not happen, according to McNamara was luck. “We lucked out,” as McNamara says in “The Fog of War.” On the 48th anniversary of the crisis, four distinguished scholars will take the stage at CIGI who have vast experience working with and on McNamara. They will address these questions: why did the crisis occur? What caused it to spin out of control? How close did the crisis come to nuclear war? What would likely have happened if nuclear weapons had been used by either side in or around Cuba? And what lessons do Robert McNamara’s experience of the crisis—both in October 1962 and in his subsequent historical research—offer to leaders and citizens alike who wish to reduce the risk of nuclear war in the 21st century so that nothing as dangerous as the missile crisis another never happens again? The panel’s presentation will begin with a brief dramatic excerpt of McNamara recalling the crisis from “The Fog of War.”
I think it’s good to show this again to remind people of some of the historical context of the current proxy war between Russia and the US/NATO in Ukraine. The first portion of the video is of Putin discussing his concerns at the 2016 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum to a group of western journalists about the placing of anti-ballistic missiles in Romania (and later Poland) as a result of the US having pulled out of the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty in 2002, and the national security threat this poses to Russia and why. The last portion is a clip from Putin’s famous 2007 speech at the Munich Security Conference in which he touched on this same emerging problem.
As Ray McGovern discussed this January, Putin had requested an urgent phone call with President Biden on December 30, 2021 with respect to the talks that were to take place regarding Russia’s proposed security treaties with the US and NATO. During that call, Putin had reportedly obtained a promise from Biden that the US had no intention of placing offensive missiles in Ukraine. After that phone call, Russia drew back 10,000 of its troops from near the Ukrainian border.
Apparently, someone in the Biden administration put the kibosh on that promise and the subsequent diplomatic talks failed.
The President held a meeting, via videoconference, with members of the Government Coordination Council on meeting the needs of the Russian Federation Armed Forces, other troops, military formations and bodies.
President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Good afternoon, colleagues,
As you know, the Executive Order to establish the Coordination Council under the Russian Government was signed on October 21.
My colleagues told me many times and for different reasons – in connection with the economic restrictions and the conduct of the special military operation – about the need to update procedures and regulations on decision-making in the most diverse areas of activity. This concerns the economy in general and individual branches of production, the Armed Forces, supporting the special military operation with everything necessary and so on.
We faced certain difficulties and the need to upgrade our work, give it a new momentum and new character when we were responding the coronavirus pandemic. We managed to do much then to update these regulations and get rid of the archaic procedures that are preventing us from moving forward at the pace the country needs.
Now we are faced with the need to more rapidly resolve issues associated with providing support for the special military operation and the need to counter economic restrictions that were imposed on us, which are truly unprecedented without any exaggeration. I have spoken many times with many of those present at this meeting about issues related to the need to update our entire work to improve administrative procedures. We have approached these problems many times from various angles.
And now the situation is such that life itself is pushing us to give this effort the most profound consideration and develop common approaches to updating all procedures, all administrative procedures, everything that is part of “governance” in the broadest sense of the word. And this, of course, cannot be done without broad and deep coordination between all efforts, all entities, all ministries, agencies with entirely different scopes – officials responsible for security and economics, and regional governments. This is precisely the purpose that the Coordination Council was created for.
Let me remind you that the Coordination Council was to have formulated target objectives for each specific effort by today. These target objectives are not ready yet, but I have no doubt that they will be sent in in the near future.
The Coordination Council includes deputy prime ministers, heads of agencies, including security ones, representatives of the Executive Office and of Russian regions. As you know, it is headed by the Prime Minister, and I would like to give him the floor now.
Mr Mishustin, I would like to ask you to tell us how you are planning to organise this work in the very near future and what you consider to be the most important, the highest priority in this work.
Please, Mr Mishustin, go ahead.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin: Thank you.
Mr President, colleagues,
Following your instruction, Mr President, we established the special Coordination Council to meet the needs of the Armed Forces. It held its first meeting yesterday. To begin with, we formed its structure, determined the main sets of tasks and the supervising deputy prime ministers.
Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Grigorenko will be in charge of finances and regulations as a deputy head of the Council, while Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov will deal with supplying weaponry, uniforms and food for our military personnel. He will head the working group at the same time.
Another two deputy prime ministers will head the Council’s groups in other key areas. Marat Khusnullin will be responsible for building infrastructure. It is not limited to barracks or training camps but also includes social facilities, transport and logistics. Tatyana Golikova will be in charge of medical support, including provision of specialised, high-tech assistance and rehabilitation for our defenders. Naturally, she will also supervise a very important area – the military pay system.
There are other areas in which we will systematise our work. This primarily concerns fuel supplies, energy, communications, information system development, databases, analytical support and, of course, feedback from mobilised personnel and their families.
In accordance with your instruction, we have already developed this information system. There is a hotline people can reach by dialling 122 to receive the information they need. It has already received about 1.5 million calls though the number is steadily declining. By today, it has gone down from 170,000 to 20,000 calls per day. The hotline’s database has over 600 replies. It is being expanded with the arrival of new questions. A major portion of answers is published on the Obyasnyayem.RF website. Almost 18 million people have visited this website since the start of mobilisation.
We are dealing with life situations, responding to people’s requests, using the feedback platform of the unified public services portal for this purpose as well. We are not only analysing typical problems but are also working on a case-by-case basis with due account for regional features and other specifics.
Mr President, you gave an instruction to organise the timely issuance of monthly payments to our defenders, including mobilised soldiers and those who were called up and are undergoing training. As I already said, this work is being carried out by Tatyana Golikova and Anton Siluanov as part of the Coordination Council’s activities.
Monetary allowance for the rank-and-file mobilised troops amounts to 195,000 rubles from day one. Increased payments are made in accordance with rank. All funds have been made available to the Defence Ministry in a timely manner. We are keeping a close watch.
These payments are being monitored by the Finance Ministry jointly with the Defence Ministry as part of the Coordination Council working group’s activities.
We are about to launch a feedback form on the public services portal to monitor compliance.
We will continue to inform the public about federal and regional support measures.
I am confident that the distribution of responsibilities between the Coordination Council members will allow us to quickly establish interaction at all levels in order to deliver on time everything that our servicemen may need.
Mr President, separately I will discuss special personal protective equipment and materials for them as it is an important issue. It is important to increase their production and to launch full-scale production of uniforms and clothing items to fully provide mobilised citizens with all they may need. The light industry capacities, including small businesses in the regions, and the constituent entities of the Russian Federation must be involved in this. Uninterrupted supplies of raw materials, materials, fabrics must be organised as well.
The Defence Ministry’s technical requests for equipment and, accordingly, compliance control measures were brought to the attention of each contractor.
The Government acted quickly to allocate additional funds to buy necessary types of uniforms, and the contract-signing procedure is in full swing. We need to make sure that our defenders’ needs for equipment are covered in full.
Mr President, the Coordination Council will work on a regular basis, and we will report to you weekly on the decisions it makes as per the Executive Order.
Thank you for your attention.
Vladimir Putin: Thank you.
Please, Mr Sobyanin.
Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin: Good afternoon, Mr President, colleagues,
Mr President, following your instruction we established a State Council working group that included all regions of the Russian Federation, as well as representatives of the Government and special services.
We are working in four key areas. The first one deals with Presidential executive orders on developing levels of response to arising threats. This is complicated technical and organisational work involving all security departments and the Government. In the majority of regions, this work is conducted in a calm, planned out manner, without any emergency measures. Nonetheless, in a number of regions, especially in the border areas like the Belgorod Region, it is necessary to take additional response measures and we are working on them both with the regions and the Government of the Russian Federation.
The second area is assistance to the Defence Ministry in setting up places for accommodation and training of mobilised personnel in accordance with your instruction. At present, we have organised accommodation for about 60,000 with the assistance of the Russian Federation regions. This is a big job and we will continue to work on it. Today, we also talked with the Defence Ministry to coordinate these efforts in view of the experience gained so far.
Many regions are providing the Defence Ministry with material and technical support. Today, we also spoke at the Government Commission meeting with the Defence Ministry about the need to coordinate this work to make it more effective.
The third area is probably the most important one – social support for the families of mobilised personnel. I am referring to targeted support – material, legal and psychological assistance, sending children to kindergartens and schools with the most convenient location for families of the military personnel. This also includes job seeking and professional development for wives of mobilised personnel. There are also systemic measures – zero payment for kindergartens, afterschool childcare, hobby and sports groups and the like. This practically means zeroing out the eligibility criteria for the payment of children’s allowances and a number of other benefits.
We will conduct all this work consistently with the Government and the regions of the Russian Federation. The overwhelming majority of regions are already taking these measures or have already taken them.
The fourth area that Mr Mishustin has just mentioned concerns joint actions to support the defence industry and assistance in deploying additional capacities to produce everything that the army needs.
One more area is helping the Defence Ministry to build military facilities. A number of regions have already joined this work.
Thank you. That concludes my report.
Vladimir Putin: I will say a few words in conclusion.
What do I want to say? The work in the format we are now discussing and in which we met has been going on for a week. This is a short interval and, of course, a draft of the Coordination Council’s target task may not yet be ready for objective reasons. Still, I am asking you to get this done as soon as possible.
It is clear that not much time has elapsed, as I have already said. But where should your main focus be?
We need higher rates of work in all areas and the most realistic assessment of the situation, the state of affairs overall. As I have already said in the very beginning, in my opening remarks, this is not only about the special military operation. This is about all our work practically in all areas.
We are trying to do this, to arrange this work in a new way, to make administration more efficient in all areas of our activities since our fight against coronavirus. Now we are facing new challenges that are serious and considerable. I will repeat that this concerns the activities of law-enforcement bodies, the security wing, and the Defence Ministry, but this also concerns the entire civilian component. Therefore, I would like to ask all of you to set your minds on doing meaningful work in the new format.
If we follow standard bureaucratic procedures and hide behind formalities, we will not achieve the desired result in any area. We established a mechanism like the Coordination Council with the express purpose of resolving all issues faster and more effectively.
Furthermore, we cannot just follow previously established standards in our work. They were created who knows when in completely different circumstances. And so, I would like to draw your attention to the following point – standards are important but we should either change them or adapt them quickly to the current conditions – of course, without any violations of the law. That said, we must be guided by the real situation and real needs in different areas.
As far as the special military operation is directly concerned, kits, special gear and other special equipment must not be simply available but must be modern, easy to use and effective. There must be a clear-cut specific plan of work in every area.
Incidentally, the producers – and many are doing this, I know – should receive feedback on the spot. They should know what they are doing and how this affects real life in this or other fields. It is necessary to know the opinion of those for whom our plants and design bureaus work. This concerns not only companies, their management and specialists but, colleagues, this concerns also the members of your Council. You should also receive first-hand information. I know that some of you are already doing this now. I would like to ask you to continue this practice and expand it.
To achieve a fundamentally different, new result, it is not enough to follow the well-trodden path, cooperating only with a narrow circle of customary contractors. I have already said this several times. It is necessary to toughen competition. There should appear new producers – efficient, with modern equipment and ready to work in the required new format and produce products with the quality we need. This concerns medicine. This concerns the construction sector in the broadest sense of this word.
And, of course, support for the regions is a separate issue. I am asking the Finance Ministry jointly with the State Council Commission under Sergei Sobyanin’s guidance to determine the required level of support for the regions that need it more than others in the current conditions. I am hoping this work will be organised just like we managed to organise things up to this point. I have no doubts that it will be organised in the best possible way and will produce a positive result.
Thank you. We will be in constant contact with you on the areas which we gathered here today to discuss.
Update(1534ET): Putin in his nearly four-hour long annual Valdai Discussion Club speech (which included a the lengthy Q&A portion) “appeared relaxed”, Reuters observed while at times questioned by journalists and panelists about the prospect of nuclear war.
Importantly, he rejected head-on the allegations from the West that he ever so much as hinted at plans to deploy nukes in Ukraine, describing a nuclear strike in the context of the “special operation” to be ultimately pointless. “We see no need for that,” Putin said. “There is no point in that, neither political, nor military.” He underscored, “it doesn’t make sense for us to do it.
He went on to emphasize that Russia had “never said anything proactively about the possible use of nuclear weapons by Russia.” At the same time he lashed out at Washington, for being the “only country in the world that has used nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear state” – in reference to WWII and the bombs over Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
He specifically referenced prior statements of Liz Truss and vague references to his saying he’s willing to defend Russia “by all means available” as having been intentionally misinterpreted and distorted:
Putin said an earlier warning of his readiness to use “all means available to protect Russia” didn’t amount to nuclear saber-rattling but was merely a response to Western statements about their possible use of nuclear weapons.
He particularly mentioned Liz Truss saying in August that she would be ready to use nuclear weapons if she became Britain’s prime minister, a remark which he said worried the Kremlin.
“What were we supposed to think?” Putin said. “We saw that as a coordinated position, an attempt to blackmail us.”
Literally as Putin was speaking, the Pentagon decided it was a good time to unveil a stunning nuclear strategy reversal, saying it would no longer rule out use of nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear threat.
As we detailed earlier, the Defense Department said in the long-awaited document issued Thursday that “By the 2030s the United States will, for the first time in its history face two major nuclear powers as strategic competitors and potential adversaries”. In response, the US will “maintain a very high bar for nuclear employment” without ruling out using the weapons in retaliation to a non-nuclear strategic threat to the homeland, US forces abroad or allies.
In the document, which was framed well before the invasion, the Pentagon says Russia continues to “brandish its nuclear weapons in support of its revisionist security policy” while its modern arsenal is expected to grow further.
Of course, Putin is now essentially pointing the finger at Washington and its allies for being the real nuclear threat in the world. The DoD briefing certainly didn’t hurt his case, at least from the point of view of Moscow and its allies.
* * *
“Russia is not challenging the western elite. We are not trying to become the hegemon,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said early in an important speech before the Valdai Discussion Club meeting outside Moscow on Thursday. Each year the Valdai speech is a major one and closely watched by Western officials and media.
This year it was touted with the eye-catching title of “A Post-Hegemonic World: Justice and Security for Everyone.” And of course, this year’s Valdai meeting comes against the backdrop of the biggest war Europe has seen on its eastern doorstep since WWII.
Putin said in his remarks that Russia merely wants to “defend its right to exist” and “won’t let itself be destroyed and wiped off the geopolitical map.” This as nuclear rhetoric and threats of defending red lines between Moscow and the West have reached heights not seen since the Cold War.
He repeated a familiar refrain of a crisis unfolding because the Western allies are using Ukraine for their “dirty game” in an ultimate drive for world domination. “Power over the world is what the West has put at stake in the game it plays. This game is certainly dangerous, bloody and I would call it dirty,” he said according to a state media translation.
“But in the modern world, sitting aside is hardly an option. He who sows the wind will reap the whirlwind, as the proverb says,” he added. Repeating a well-known theme of his, juxtapositioning collapsing unipolar order vs. multipolarity, he said “new centers of power in the multipolar world and the West will have to start talking as equals about our common future.”
“[This game] denies the sovereignty of nations and peoples, their identity and uniqueness, and has no regard whatsoever for other countries,” Putin added.
Commenting on one segment of the talk, The New York Times said the Valdai speech sought to appeal to conservatives in Europe and the US:
Mr. Putin insisted that Russia did not fundamentally see itself as an “enemy of the West.” Rather, he said — as he has before — that it was “Western elites” that he was fighting, ones who were trying to impose their “pretty strange” values on everyone else.
“There are at least two Wests,” Mr. Putin said in his speech at the plenary session in Moscow of an annual foreign policy conference. One, he said, was the West of “traditional, mainly Christian values,” which Russia was close to.
But Putin drove home in contrast that “There’s another West — aggressive, cosmopolitan, neocolonial, acting as the weapon of the neoliberal elite.”
Ukrainian officials have been watching the speech closely, and commenting:
“Confidence in one’s infallibility is a very dangerous state, one step away from destroying those they don’t like” – Putin knows what he is talking about at Valdai. pic.twitter.com/0VRSjKlWiu— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) October 27, 2022
And more specifically on the Ukraine conflict, the Russian leader charged of the West’s actions, “They’re always trying to escalate…They’re fueling the war in Ukraine, organizing provocations around Taiwan, destabilizing the world food and energy markets.”
Putin warned that the West’s confidence in its “infallibility” is a “very dangerous” condition, with there only being “one step” between this self-confidence to the idea that “they can simply destroy those they do not like, or as they say, to ‘cancel’ them.”
Emphasizing that Russia is not a natural “enemy” of the West, Putin urged Western political elites to stop seeing “the hand of the Kremlin” behind all their internal problems.
On multipolarity, Putin’s message to Europe is essentially “take it or leave it”…
Putin is at it again. New Munich III speech at Valdai conference. He is laying the foundations of new multipolar world order. The message to Europe is “take it or leave it”. pic.twitter.com/oUixDO7Jmm— србин (@forzaserbia) October 27, 2022
Western officials are also keeping a close watch on Putin’s words regarding nuclear doctrine and usage. Putin at Valdai underscored he sees “no political or military reason” to conduct a nuke strike in Ukraine. He also stressed Moscow’s nuclear doctrine is defensive in nature. “Russia has never talked about nuclear use, only replied,” he said.
He went on to warn that it remains Russia will never “put up with what the West tells it to do” – and that while Russia should not be seen as a direct challenge to the West, it reserves the right to develop. With this theme established, Putin asserted that Washington has discredited international finance“by using the dollar as a weapon” – thus he posited that in the future continued moves toward “settlements in national currencies will dominate.”
October 22 was an unseasonably warm Saturday night in the Altai Republic. 8PM and thousands of well-wishers crowded the Victory Square to see their mobilized men off. The first of two ceremonies, this one was for men from the outlying districts. Many of them are Altai and this will be their second farewell of the day.
The first came in the morning with a sendoff from their villages. The one I attended the mobilized young men stood on one side of the road smoking and palling if they were waiting outside school for the bell to ring. One young woman hung onto the arm of her man. The children and grandchildren of these men will see pictures where the line is straightened and a few of the men have wrapped their arms around each other with big smiles while others stare with looks of duty and resignation into the cameras.
On the other side of the road relatives were distraught and silent except for comforting those who were crying. Both sides of the road shared a disbelief that this was happening. A short speech by the Mayor, final hugs, and the minibus pulled away with very sad people left behind waving and horns honking.
As farewell number two began there were surprisingly few tears at Victory Square. Those devastated by this parting hold them back. The focus here is on how proud they are of their husband, son, brother, friend. There are scattered conversations among the crowd that includes many who just wanted to be supportive, “are you seeing someone off?” “Yes, my son in law”, “Contract?” “No, mobilized”. A mother explaining to her young son “these men are going off to something terrifying”.
There were also surprisingly few flags and the ceremony was kept to a civilized 30 minutes. Music was a mix of patriotic and hard rock. The usual suspects spoke, there was no self-indulgence. The Governor defined their purpose, “… to protect the Motherland, its sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity” that will now include Kherson and Zaporozhets as well as the Donbass, Luhansk, and Crimea. A returned participant in the special military operation and recipient of the Order of Courage told the mobilized, “We had a motto, ‘No one but us’, now that applies to all of Russia!”.
Born in 1936, Boris Konduleevich Alushkin, Chairman of the Republican Council of Veterans and the Union of Journalists, reflected on a childhood memory “I was a first-grader, when we had to see off our fathers and older brothers during the Great Patriotic War. Together with grandmothers and mothers, we remained in the rear. Today the situation has arisen so that you have to go to the front line of Russia’s defense. You can rely on us. We will take care of your children, families…. Today, the entire Altai Mountains and Russia, representatives of all faiths, are praying for you. I wish you to return to Altai with victory, may the great achievement of our older generation keep you safe.”
Then came the call to board the buses, the final final goodbye. The friends slap backs, laugh, “we’ll be meeting you soon there”, and hug. A small crowd surrounded a not so young man as everyone got a proper, individual goodbye. The longest is for what seemed to be his wife who can no longer hold back her tears as he bends down to the grandchildren and then back up to hug the friends and other relatives.
A couple of wives and girlfriends lingered inside the buses until they were forced to leave when they were fully loaded. Outside, small children sat on shoulders for a last wave to Daddy, brother, or Uncle. Here, as in the morning, there is a contrast between the people going, band of brothers camaraderie, and those staying many of whom have finally allowed themselves to cry. Everyone waved goodbye as the buses pulled out for the 450 km trip to Novosibirsk where the mobilized will spend the next month training.
As this scene played out, “Farewell of Slavianka” blasted from the loudspeakers . The doleful march was written to honor the women seeing their men off to the First Balkans War. A reminder, as if one was needed, that this ritual has been repeated throughout history. There are undoubtedly wives, children, fathers, mothers, and friends waving goodbye to their loved ones in Ukraine. Some of those getting on the buses in Ukraine may be relatives or friends of those getting on the buses on this unseasonably warm Saturday night in the Altai Republic.
