By Prof. Oliver Boyd-Barrett, Substack, 12/1/22

Summary of Alexander Mercouris Commentary (Mercouris 12.1.2022)

Bakhmut

Ukraine is rushing reinforcements to Bakhmut to avoid encirclement by Russian forces. One report claims that 30,000 Ukrainian forces are in danger of encirclement. This further confirms the critical importance of Bakhmut to Ukrainian defense lines in the Donbass and further west, despite attempts by western mainstream media to argue otherwise. It is a key transportation and logistics hub. Mercouris has previously noted that the Wagner group is now supported by regular Russian forces and that one reason why the Russian offensive here has taken so long (four months) is because the Wagner group might have bitten off more than they could chew and that it would have been more effective had the regular army contributed more to this offensive and much sooner.

The battle for Bakhmut is the most brutal and cruel of all battles fought so far in this war.

In the event that Ukraine loses the battle of Bakhmut and loses up to 30,000 troops, amid shell shortages and threats to the energy system, at a time when the weather has turned considerably colder, it will have experienced a very major set-back.

Missile Attacks

There are satellite indications of a forthcoming massive Russian missile attack in preparation, judging by activities at the Engels airfield where pictures show two dozen bombers ready for action with very active ground crews. This could be an exercise in Russian misinformation or a signal of some other kind of operation. There have been recent expectations of such an attack. Even following repairs of previous missile attacks (the last one was a week ago), 40% of the energy system remains severely degraded.

Another two to four such raids might lead to a final collapse of the energy system, at which point an overall repair might become impossible. The prospect of western help is not huge, given disparities of voltage etc. between Soviet-era and western standards. There have been multiple attacks by Kalibri and many other missiles, but there have not been any recent sightings of Geranium 2 drones imported from Iran. It could be that Russia is building up a stock of these and other drones in preparation for a terminal attack on Ukraine’s energy system. Lavrov has said that attacks on the dual-use energy system of Ukraine are justified for military reasons. His saying this points towards a Russian intention to knock out energy, rail, communication and transportation systems that might also include the Dnieper bridges.

Storm Clouds

Things are now building up. Shoigu has indicated that training of the 300,000 new reservists and the additional 80,000 volunteers is now basically over and that the soldiers can be deployed in preparation for the Russian winter offensive.

Kharkiv

Other reports talk about a critical situation for Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv region. The Ukrainian forces’ advance has been at a standstill while Russia builds up heavy fortifications and mounts limited counteroffensives. Ukraine says that Ukrainian forces in Kharkiv are running critically short of ammunition, because the railway system is beginning to crumble.

Shortages

Ukraine is in need of far more ammunition at a point in time when they are experiencing a shell shortage on the frontlines and NATO countries are finding it increasingly difficult to keep up with their supply. France has indicated that it is now capped out of the military equipment, Caesar systems, multiple rocket launch systems, etgc.,and will not be in a position to provide much more.

Evacuations

If Ukraine is indeed worried for its energy system it is the legal and moral duty of the Ukrainian government to organize evacuations of citizens, especially the most vulnerable, from Ukrainian cities. If the transportation system also collapses it will simply not be possible to evacuate. Mercouris wonders whether one of the reasons why Ukraine has not been already organizing massive evacuations is that some people in Kiev are hoping for a humanitarian crisis so that this might elicit more western sympathy.

Diplomacy

The Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has also talked of the state of diplomatic discussions. He has ridiculed the idea that there are effective discussions taking place, and that there is no indication that Ukraine is in any position for discussion. This points increasingly to the Russians focusing on the military side of the war and discounting any idea of a diplomatic solution.

On the western side there are indications of considerable confusion. Macron is accusing Washington of benefitting from the war, from the sales of US LNG to Europe at very high prices, and complaining that the US Inflation Reduction Act is a mechanism for official subsidies to US industries at the expense of European (long gone the days of World Trade Organization authority, and even of “globalization.” OBB) There is no sign of any real US concession to Europe.

What to Do

There has been much discussion as to what to do to help Ukraine. The US is talking about relatively low levels of training support (2500 men a month, for a month at a time, will not remotely address Ukraine’s problems), talk about more weapons systems, perhaps including Patriot surface-to-air missiles (the Pentagon is strongly opposed, as it does not want to lose what it has), and suggestions about F-16s fighter jets which will only be available in a timeframe of months or years and, if used, will not make much difference.

Infighting

The issue of delivery of Patriots has caused a furious row between Germany and Poland in the wake of the fall of a Ukrainian missile on Poland. Germany offered its Patriots to Poland. The Poles have launched an anti-German campaign because Germany will not allow Poland to pass on the Patriots to Ukraine (which would require a full agreement of the entire NATO alliance). These kinds of quarrel are intensifying. Britain is also sniping at Germany.

Western media carry reports (as in the Guardian) that the USA should send 1,000 Abrahms tanks to Ukraine, that these would be sufficient to achieve victory over the Russian army – in other words, are suggesting that the USA should send a third of its entire arsenal of tanks to Ukraine. There would be enormous logistic challenges, challenges of maintenance (they are very heavy maintenance), and of supplying them with the 150mm tank ammunition, and of supplying fuel for their gas turbine engines. Fighter jets, long range missiles are also talked about.

Mercouris calls such talk borderline irrational/deranged. If and when Ukraine goes down to defeat such writers will doubtless claim that the defeat was because of failure to deliver such systems, that it was all the fault of the weak west and weak western politicians. (Such talk sounds like typicaly neocon double-down mischief, and indicates the extent to which mainstream media are bought and paid for by the neocons. OBB).

Non-Diplomacy

Russia’s intelligence chief has confirmed that he talked about Ukraine in his recent meeting with the CIA chief, William Burns, in Ankara, showing that there is nothing to the US claim that “there will be no talks about Ukraine without Ukraine.” But we dont know the substance of the talks.

Lavrov was clearly not impressed. Russia clearly feels, says Mercouris, that Washington is incapable of coming up with ideas that remotely address the problems. Western diplomacy, says Mercouris, is bankrupt. Attempts to isolate Russia, to implement a sanctions war, achieve military success, persuade China to intervene on behalf of the West, persuade India to stop buying Russian gas, etc., etc, – nothing has worked. The only promising negotiation back in March was wrecked by Washington and Boris Johnson. The price: Ukraine has suffered at least 100,000 dead among its military forces (as stated rather clumsily this week by Ursula von Leyen. OBB). Thousands more will die; many people will suffer extreme cold and similar hardships. Extreme cold, without heat, is unsustainable, despite however much clothing is worn.

The effects will be catastropic, especially for the vulnerable. We will have to go through all of this horror before negotiations begin – an act of tardiness and stubborness that represents political and moral bankruptcy.

(Note. There are western reports of an indication from Washington that Biden is ready for talks with Putin. OBB).