Is Putin quietly grooming Mishustin to be his successor? Bolding for emphasis is mine. – Natylie
By Anna Arutunyan, The Spectator, 6/4/23
As the war in Ukraine spilled into Russian territory, with shelling in the Russian city of Belgorod, President Vladimir Putin was busy explaining that he “sleeps like a normal person” during an online meeting with families to honor Children’s Day. That Putin mentioned his healthy sleeping pattern, without discussing the ongoing Ukrainian incursion into Belgorod – where civilians, including children, were being evacuated — left some observers wondering who is actually running the country while he plays war.
The Russian regime is far from monolithic, and there are other forces in power besides Putin and the turbo-patriots
Putin has a penchant for disengaging and struggling to make decisions, especially when there are no good ones left to make. He will micromanage his generals, but when it comes down to serious policy choices — like whether to announce another round of mobilization, or intercede in the vicious conflict between his defense minister Sergei Shoigu and the head of the Wagner mercenaries Yevgeny Prigozhin — he can’t seem to make up his mind.
Which is odd, because aside from his floundering military campaign, the Russian economy is doing surprisingly well for a country slapped with unprecedented sanctions and isolation. Despite forecasts of a double-digit contraction, the economy shrank by just 2.1 percent in 2022 — less than it did during the pandemic year of 2020. And in April, the International Monetary Fund raised its prognosis for 2023, forecasting growth of 0.7 percent.
While Putin is focusing all of his attention on the front — but without actually deciding much — the business of actually running the country has fallen to his prime minister, Mikhail Mishustin. The resilience of Russia’s economy and its day-to-day functioning is owed to Mishustin and his team of technocrats in the cabinet, as well as the fiscal miracles being worked by Central Bank chief Elvira Nabiullina. The prime minister has done a great deal to reorient Russia’s economy towards the global southeast, and has acted with a considerable degree of autonomy in dealing with foreign heads of state.
It was Mishustin, not Putin, who traveled to China on May 24. He met not only with his counterpart, premier Li Qiang, but also directly with President Xi Jinping. Russia is the junior partner in its relationship with China, so it is significant that Mishustin, and not Putin, reciprocated this state visit.
What is interesting, though, is that evidence suggests Mishustin does not support the war. At the fateful Security Council meeting on February 21, 2022, when Putin essentially asked each of his officials to approve a decision to recognize the secession of a good chunk of Ukrainian territory, Mishustin was one of only three officials who instead favored continuing talks with the West. Insiders say Mishustin was not even informed of the plans to invade until the night before. Moreover, in his public statements, Mishustin, unlike the majority of officials eager to stoke patriotic fervor, avoids talking about the “special military operation” when he can. True, he was responsible for implementing Putin’s orders on economic and social mobilization to support the war effort, but it is believed that even in private he doesn’t like talking about the war.
That has led some observers to identify a “party of silence” or even a “party of peace” in the Kremlin that does not support the war, and which includes powerful officials close to Putin such as Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin.
And this is where things get interesting. While Russia is very much ruled by a system where personal relations with the president often take precedence over institutional power, that is only part of the picture. Institutions still matter, and as prime minister, Mikhail Mishustin is the second most powerful man after Putin, regardless of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s temper tantrums. All state bodies — except the so-called of “men of force,” or siloviki, such as the defense ministry and security agencies — report to the prime minister. In addition, Putin’s practice of over-delegating hard decisions — especially during the pandemic — further beefed up Mishustin’s role.
Mishustin cannot simply go to Putin and talk him out of the invasion. His power depends on his trustworthiness and his impeccable loyalty. Which leaves him little other choice but to make the best out of an impossible situation and at least preserve Russia’s economy to the extent that he can.
All of this is important, however, because it demonstrates that the Russian regime is far from monolithic, and there are other forces in power besides Putin and the turbo-patriots — the loud supporters of the war in Ukraine.
Right now, keeping quiet and doing their job is the only option for these silent, pragmatic technocrats, and we shouldn’t expect them to be in a position to sway Putin towards peace anytime soon. But a time will come when these forces may well be deciding Russia’s future. It is a giant stretch to call them the “good guys”: mired in corruption and complicit in the war, they will inevitably face a reckoning. But beyond the magical thinking about Russia’s disintegration, or conversely its overnight transformation into a peaceful democracy, western policymakers need to start thinking about a realistic future for Russia if they are serious about sustainable security in Europe. These technocrats will not have the answers anytime soon, but alienating them wholesale is not in anyone’s interests.
as essentially patronising piece throwing names about like confetti to seek to add legitimacy which has numerous clear errors and prejudices not least that the evil disinterested Putin will be called to give account when Western leaders will easily top this bill in that they have paid for the 10,000s of young lives of pressganged Ukrainian youth and deceived their electorates as more and more people see through the deceitful media of which this is a marginally more sophisticated genre.So Putins war is floundering is it when its very clear Ukr forces have been decimated even further by this useless and pointless counteroffensive when as yet Ru heavy armour still hasnt rolled.Has it even too occurred to the writer damning with faint praise as stock-in-trade that Putin as leader stays above the fray and is an excellent delegator so conserving his own time to think and plan? They couldnt bring Ru down and balkanise it;Ru has withstood vicious sanctions which have completely backfired and has added cement to BRICS and Rus increasingly important relationship with China where together in unity and peace they are ending the unipolarity this article seeks to mischievously defend and bring harmony in place of US chaos.Ru will defeat the psychopathic W leaders and the Nazis and had been preparing for the MO for years suspecting Minsk 2 was a deliberate deception and protecting its back.These W leaders who are not outright psychopaths havent the courage to resist the USA and they have no off-ramps and therefore will murder 10,000s more…how will this writer dress this up ?
Yes, but that’s not why I posted this article. I posted it for the points made about how Putin is now allowing Mishustin to go and meet with political leaders in other important countries – in other words, giving him some experience in handling foreign affairs. Also, it points out how much domestic experience he has accumulated.
The same “high” level of analysis we have come to expect of the Spectator but you make an extremely good point about the China visit.
I remember being slightly surprised but had not thought out the possible implications.
Yeah Right. Such speculation isn’t new. There’s also been speculation that Putin is grooming Medvedev for a return run after he met Xi & especially introduced Medvedev. Separately, there are similar kinds of speculation in the UK about the possibility of a Bojo bumper return; speculations about Biden’s health and whether or not he will last through his second term. Yes, don’t forget, speculative and outlandish claims about Putin’s health; robust speculations about the health and whereabouts of Ukranian General Zelushny, etc. To be honest, none of this is newsworthy until there are official announcements, not forgetting, as far as the Russian election season is concerned, the possibility that Putin himself may run again. Otherwise, we can imaginatively line up all kinds of people as prospective candidates for special grooming by Putin e.g. Maria Zakharova (quite a strong voice in her own right with a fan base of her own), Sergei Lavrov, Yevgeny Prigozhin (who, apart from his appeal as a sort of TDR-style roughrider, some say has Putin’s devoted ear even when he appears to be playing off-side and issuing ultimatums to the Ministry of Defence), and let’s not forget Presidential Commissioner for Children’s Rights Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova, issued an ICC arrest warrant alongside Putin, who could become a hard-to-ignore frontrunner because: 1) of widespread empathy for her; 2) of her work in the rescue children from the warzone 3) she has the looks, the articulateness, and the intelligence, that may raise her popularity stakes. Who knows?
Of course, Putin may run again in 2024, but the man is 70 years old and won’t live forever. It would be wise to groom a successor rather than to suddenly drop dead and not have one, which would be much more destabilizing for Russia. As for some of the other people you mentioned as possible successors – some can be ruled out more than others. Medvedev is not going to be Putin’s successor. He got his chance and showed himself to be weak. He’s also plagued by corruption allegations and is unpopular. Zacharova is unlikely because she’s a woman – sorry, but I think that’s the reality for the short to medium term future – and I think she’s too much of a firebrand. Prighozin – give me a break. Lavrov is at least as old as Putin so it won’t be him. Putin is likely to pick someone who’s competent, trustworthy, not power-hungry and who is young enough to easily serve 12 years in office. He wants someone who will be a steady hand. Mishustin fits those criteria. I do agree the one potential weakness is his lack of foreign policy experience and whether some of the hardliners would respect him enough to not undermine him. Although Putin is fairly moderate, he came up through the security service and had that advantage.
Funny…but after getting to know Mr Mishustin I have concluded on my own that he would be my first choice to succeed Mr Putin.
Who needs these flaky writers to describe the obvious.
Mishustin is a very competent prime minister, but I am afraid he lacks the kind of charisma that the Russians have come to expect from their top leader. As president, he may be vulnerable to being undermined by nationalistic populists, which would either make him appear increasingly weak, or push him to compensate by veering further and further to the right.
As far as I can tell, there is zero appetite in Russia right now for rapprochement w/West, and there won’t be any in foreseeable future. Competent technocrats will continue to reorient the country towards the East. And even those who oppose the war understand that one thing that’s worse than a war is loosing one.
We’re back at Kremlinology, reading the tea leaves, but this time not the Soviet Press, but rags of the West, to gather up that Mishustin visits China. Thank you for catching it, but it’s a sad day for me. Not that I watch the Russian Press, but I do follow China’s closely and missed this information. Shame on me, and shame on western academia.