Moon of Alabama, 6/30/23

Last December the commander of the Ukrainian armed forces, General Valery Zaluzhny, talked with The Economist. He asked for more weapons which, he said, would allow him to throw the Russian forces out of Ukraine:

“I know that I can beat this enemy. But I need resources. I need 300 tanks, 600-700 IFVs, 500 Howitzers. Then, I think it is completely realistic to get to the lines of February 23rd.”

Some seemed to believe his talk. Following the request Ukraine received more or less all of what it had requested. Ukraine then loudly announced a counter-offensive but took several months before launching it. In the meantime it threw all available resources into a useless battle to hold onto the city of Bakhmut against the steady advance of the Wagner mercenary forces. That fight alone cost the Ukraine some 70,000 casualties. Meanwhile the Russian army engineers were building multiple reinforced defense lines which any counter-offensive will now have to overcome.

At the beginning of June, under pressure for the U.S., the Ukrainian army finally launched its counteroffensive. It was a dud. The Ukrainian troops entered the Russian security zone miles away from the real defense lines and immediately ran into mine fields and came under intense artillery fire. After 4 weeks of fighting they ‘liberated’ some 50 square miles of open land and a few small settlements. This came at significant costs:

“There were fewer than 50 men in the unit, he said, and 30 did not return — they were killed, wounded or captured by the enemy. Five of the unit’s armored vehicles were destroyed within the first hour.

…

“For the first hour and a half of the 37th’s assault near Velyka Novosilka, the Russians bombarded the unit with nonstop shelling that penetrated their AMX-10 RC armored vehicles, according to Grey, another soldier in the battalion who spoke on the condition that he be identified only by his call sign. The armored vehicles, sometimes called “light tanks,” were not heavy enough to protect the soldiers, Grey said, and had to be positioned behind them instead of in front.

…

“Everyone expected that we would have some kind of support, but unfortunately, for some reason, there was none,” Lumberjack said. His commander had little experience, he said, and had counted on assistance from artillery units. “But he got confused when he saw that there was none.”

At this speed it will take the Ukraine many years of fighting and an unlimited supply of weapons and men to kick the Russians out:

“To put the matter in perspective: Today, Russia controls about 17 percent of the territory that was previously Ukraine’s. If Ukrainian forces are no more successful in the weeks ahead than they have been so far, Ukraine will not recapture all of its territory for 16 years.”

Over the last months I used a spreadsheet to list and sum up the Ukrainian casualties as they are listed in the daily reports of the Defense Ministry of Russia. These numbers are likely a bit too high but by what percentage, 10 or 20%, is hard to say.

From June 1 to June 30 the numbers sum up to: 313 tanks, 815 Infantry Fighting Vehicles and other armored vehicles, 313 howitzer and other long range artillery systems. The Ukraine also lost some 21,900 men which gives an average of 730 per day.

During the month the Russian air defense claimed to have shot down 15 Ukraine planes, 5 helicopters, 200 HIMARS and 20 Storm Shadow ‘wonder weapon’ missiles. Those numbers do not include the significant damage Russia has done to defense repair shops, weapon and ammunition depots all over Ukraine with its constant long range missile attacks.

In total the Ukraine lost in one months more than Zaluzhny requested back in December and more than it has received during the time since.

In the Washington Post Zaluzhny is back and begging for more weapons:

“For Ukraine’s counteroffensive to progress faster, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, the top officer in Ukraine’s armed forces, says he needs more — of every weapon. And he is telling anyone who will listen, including his American counterpart Gen. Mark A. Milley as recently as Wednesday, that he needs those resources now.

“In a rare, wide-ranging interview with The Washington Post, Zaluzhny expressed frustration that while his biggest Western backers would never launch an offensive without air superiority, Ukraine still has not received modern fighter jets but is expected to rapidly take back territory from the occupying Russians. American-made F-16s, promised only recently, are not likely to arrive until the fall — in a best-case scenario.

“His troops also should be firing at least as many artillery shells as their enemy, Zaluzhny said, but have been outshot tenfold at times because of limited resources.”

Zaluzhny wants F-16s and more ammunition but also more of ‘every weapon’. Here are the problems.

When Zaluzhny will get his F-16s he will immediately learn that the Russian Su-35 is by far superior to them. Its radar can see farther than the F-16’s and its long range over-the-horizon missiles can kill the F-16s before they even have a chance to fire their own ones.

The ‘west’ is currently unable to produce as much ammunition as Ukraine wants to fire. And while the U.S. still has some Bradleys and Abrams battle tanks in its reserves the depots for ‘every weapon’ in other NATO countries are already empty. There are no more tanks, armored vehicles or howitzers they could give away.

In total there simply is not enough to replace the losses the Ukraine has on a daily basis. Meanwhile Russia is already producing more of every weapon than its military needs for its daily operations.

There is no way the Ukraine can win this fight or even hold on to its current positions. That was easy to foresee and predict. Those who urged Ukraine on should be condemned for the murderous slaughter they caused.

Ukraine needs to make peace with Russia. Yes, it will come with conditions that are not easy to swallow. Still, there is no other way out.

To continue the fight, with ever increasing losses of men and land, is not a sustainable alternative.