Russia Matters: Russia in Review, Jan. 12-19, 2024

Russia Matters, 1/19/24

5 Things to Know

1. In the past month, Russian forces have gained 57 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 1 square mile, according to the Jan. 16, 2024, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In an article on the war entitled “Russia Regains Upper Hand in Ukraine’s East as Kyiv’s Troops Flag,” NYT noted this week that “[n]ow Russian troops are on the attack, especially in the country’s east. The town of Marinka has all but fallen. Avdiivka is being slowly encircled. A push on Chasiv Yar, near Bakhmut, is expected.” A new Russian offensive could occur sometime between Jan. 12 and Feb. 2, ISW reported, citing estimates of Russian war watchers. For Ukraine to survive Russian offensives in 2024, it needs to pursue the strategy of active defense, according to Western officials cited by FT. Pursuing this strategy, toward which the Ukrainian government has recently allocated $466 million, could be vital, given the ammunition and personnel shortages the Ukrainian armed forces are suffering from, the former partially blamed on delays in disbursements of military aid by the U.S. and EU:

  • Russian artillery fire now exceeds Ukrainian artillery fire at ratios between five-to-one and ten-to-one, ISW reported this week, citing Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. “Today we had two shells, but some days we don’t have any in these positions,” a commander of a Ukrainian artillery crew told NYT. “I have two tanks, but only five shells,” a deputy Ukrainian battalion commander told this newspaper.
  • Russian forces can generate forces at a rate equal to Russian monthly personnel losses, while Ukrainian forces struggle to find adequate personnel reinforcements, according to the Ukrainian MoD’s military intelligence cited by ISW and  NYT, respectively. “Three out of 10 soldiers who show up are no better than drunks who fell asleep and woke up in uniform,” a Ukrainian soldier confided to NYT in reference to new recruits that arrive at his brigade. Ukrainian MPs are expecting to receive a revised version of the mobilization bill, which is expected to allow a mobilization of half a million Ukrainians, in the first week of February, according to Ukrainska Pravda.

2. Several top figures in NATO’s staff and alliance members’ governments have asserted this week that they believe a war with Russia is possible, with some warning that it could possibly erupt as soon as 5 years from now. Among them are Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and Britain’s defense secretary Grant Shapps. “We have to take into account that Vladimir Putin might even attack a NATO country one day,” Pistorius—whose country’s military is reportedly gaming out a Russian-NATO conflict in 2025—told Tagesspiegel. “Our experts expect a period of five to eight years in which this could be possible,” he added, according to Politico. As for Shapps, he has said that Western countries need to prepare for further conflicts involving Russia over the next five years, according to FT. In the view of NATO military committee chief Rob Bauer, a conflict could occur in the next 20 years. The alliance needs to be on high alert for war, and “that’s why we are preparing for a conflict with Russia,” Bauer said. Putin and his top ministers have repeatedly rejected predictions that Russia might attack a NATO country.

3. Around 90,000 troops will participate in NATO’s largest exercise in decades, known as Steadfast Defender 2024, which will kick off next week, the alliance’s top commander Chris Cavoli was quoted by Reuters as saying on Jan. 18. Steadfast Defender 2024 will run to late May and involve units from all 31 NATO member countries, plus Sweden, according to AFP. The drills will include at least 1,100 combat vehicles, 80 aircraft and 50 naval vessels and will be taking place in the Baltics and Poland, according to Axios and Stripes.com. The exercise will be the biggest since the 1988 Reforger drill during the Cold War, according to AFP.

4. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has rejected U.S.-Russian arms control talks because of U.S. support for Ukraine and warned about the risks of a direct confrontation, according to Reuters and  Bloomberg. “There is already more and more talk of a direct clash of nuclear powers” while “there are fewer and fewer restraining factors in the West,” he claimed at a Jan. 18 press conference meant to sum up Russian diplomats’ work in the past year. Lavrov—who will travel to New York for UNSC meetings next week—said Washington had proposed separating the issues of Ukraine and the resumption of talks on arms control, but Russia found the proposal unacceptable. Lavrov’s warning of a nuclear clash comes one week after Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev’s threat to carry out nuclear strikes if Ukraine tried to target “our missile launchers across the entire territory of Russia.” Speaking in Washington on Jan. 18, Pranay Vaddi, senior director for arms control at the White House national security council, expressed hope that Russia may change its mind as the February 2026 expiration of New START approaches.

5. Security officials from 83 countries have discussed the terms of Ukraine’s Peace Formula in Davos this week, with Switzerland agreeing to host the next meeting even as its foreign minister said it would be an “illusion” to think that Russia would participate on such terms. These include the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity within its 1991 borders and the withdrawal of Russian troops from the Ukrainian territories. In a setback to Ukraine, China chose not to attend the Jan. 14 meeting, which took place ahead of the World Economic Forum, even though Chinese Premier Li Qiang was attending WEF. In addition, officials from some non-Western states that did attend the meeting reiterated their position that a settlement should address Moscow’s security concerns, such as Ukraine’s desire to join NATO, according to FT. In remarks made this week, Putin and his foreign minister Lavrov rejected Kyiv’s peace formula again, with Lavrov reiterating Russia’s maximalist demands, including Ukraine’s “backing out of joining of NATO.”