Russia Matters, 2/9/24

1. On Feb. 8, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy replaced Valerii Zaluzhnyi with Oleksandr Syrskyi as the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU). Zelenskyy outlined problems in the military that Syrskyi will need to address, including disparity between the overall number of military servicemen and the number of servicemen participating in actual combat. Zelenskyy also called for “a different approach to mobilization and recruitment,” two issues over which he has had disagreements with Syrskyi’s predecessor. In the first comments on priorities since his appointment, Syrskyi himself vowed to improve the rotation of troops at the frontlines and to focus on the “introduction of new technical solutions and the scaling of successful experience,” including drones, according Bloomberg. Syrskyi—who is seen as a close ally of Zelenskyy and is considered more accessible by some U.S. commanders than Zaluzhnyi was—has been credited with the successful defense of Kyiv in Spring 2022 and recapturing territory in the east and south in Fall 2022. However, his reputation among the Ukrainian servicemen is far from stellar, with some describing him as a “butcher” for his willingness to sacrifice soldiers during the defense of Bakhmut in 2022-2023. 
2. In the past month, Russian forces have captured 64 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 0 square miles, according to the Feb. 6, 2024, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. This week, Russians have penetrated the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka from the north and south in a development acknowledged by Ukrainian OSINT project DeepState. The Russians are also closing in around Kupyansk, a town in the Kharkiv region that Ukrainian forces retook in 2022, according to WSJ. Russian forces plan to retake more territory in that eastern region, having amassed more than 40,000 troops and hundreds of tanks and armored vehicles near Kupyansk for that purpose, according to NYT.
3. On Feb. 8, the Democratic-controlled Senate cleared a critical hurdle toward passing a $95 billion national security-focused bill aimed at fortifying Ukraine, Israel and other allies. Most of the proposal’s funding—about $60 billion—is intended to help Ukraine as it fights off Russia’s invasion. The vote was 67-32, clearing the 60-vote bar needed to advance most legislation in the chamber, according to WSJ. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D) has said that he would allow an amendment process, which is something Republican senators said they intend to engage in, suggesting to trim funds that pay public servants in Kyiv, according to WSJ. Of the $60 billion intended for Ukraine, nearly $8 billion is intended to provide direct budget support for Ukraine. The largest portion, $19.9 billion, would replenish inventory levels of Defense Department weaponry that were emptied to help Ukraine’s military, according to WSJ. However, even if the bill ultimately clears the Senate, it faces an even tougher road in the Republican-controlled House, according to WSJ. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R) has declined to say whether he would bring the Senate-passed national-security package onto the floor, but Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R) has already threatened to try to oust Johnson as speaker if he advances more money for Ukraine, according to WSJ.
4. If Congress doesn’t approve new funding for Ukraine, U.S. equipment won’t suddenly stop, but slowly expire, according to NYT. ”Ukraine could effectively hold for some part of this year” without more American military aid, Michael Kofman, an expert on the Russian military, told NYT. Western officials and experts predict it would be at least a couple months before the lack of renewed aid has a widespread impact, according to NYT. By next month, Ukraine could struggle to conduct local counterattacks, and by early summer, its military might have difficulty rebuffing Russian assaults, the officials and analysts said to this newspaper.