YouTube link here.

“James Galbraith challenges common perceptions about western sanctions and their impact on Russia, revealing unexpected outcomes for its economy and development. Contrary to the goals of defunding the war and degrading Russia’s military capacity, sanctions have led to economic adjustments that have fostered Russia’s independent development. Galbraith points out that despite initial disruptions, Russia adapted by focusing on domestic production and diversifying its economic partnerships. This analysis provides a nuanced view of economic sanctions’ real-world impacts, suggesting that their effectiveness and consequences are more complex than commonly understood.“

Read Putin’s address to the citizens of Russia on the terrorist attack here.

The Bell, 3/23/24

The biggest terrorist attack in Moscow for 20 years

A group of armed people killed at least 115 people Friday in an attack on a shopping and entertainment center in Moscow – the most deadly terrorist incident in the Russian capital in two decades. Amid the war in Ukraine, Russia’s response is very difficult to predict. [Note: Both Euronews and RT a the time of this posting are reporting 133 dead. – Natylie]

• The attack began about 8 p.m. in Crocus City Hall, which includes one of Moscow’s biggest concert halls (seating about 6,200 people). Five well-armed people in camouflage entered the hall just before the start of a sold-out performance, shooting the security guards, and then those present in the room. According to officials, at least 150 people were killed and hundreds more injured. A large fire began at about this time, as a result of which part of the roof of the hall collapsed.
• Initially, there were reports that the attackers had remained in the building, but, at about midnight, the police announced they had begun a search for the culprits. On Saturday, the Federal Security Service (FSB) said that the four terrorists were detained in th western Bryansk region, which borders Ukraine. Russian state media posted videos of their interrogations; one of the attackers said that he was offered to carry out the shooting by a “preacher’s assistant” on messaging app Telegram, and was promised 1 million rubles ($11,000) as a reward.
• All the recent developments (especially the fact that the shooters were offered a money reward) and the tone of the propaganda, suggests that the Russian official version will inevitably focus on blaming Ukraine.
• The political backdrop is extremely concerning. President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Thursday for the first time that Russia is waging a “war” in Ukraine – not a “special military operation,” which has been the preferred official term for more than two years, And the day before, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced plans to establish three new armies – sparking speculation about another round of mobilization to raise the soldiers to man them.

Why the world should care

Such a brazen attack in the heart of Moscow could potentially be used by the Kremlin to justify another escalation in Ukraine, or another wave of mobilization. However, Russian officials stopped short of blaming Ukraine on Friday evening. We will look at the attack and its fallout in more detail in our following newsletters.

Wartime economics puts money in pockets of Russia’s poor 

Predictably, Western nations were dismissive of the “election” that saw Vladimir Putin voted in for a fifth presidential term. Of course, the election was neither free, nor fair. However, that does not mean it was meaningless. The words once credited to U.S. political strategist James Carville also apply here: “It’s the economy, stupid.”

Even if the votes had been counted accurately, it’s more than possible that the economy would have powered Putin to victory. After all, most Russians have never lived as well as they do now. Nor do people believe that things are about to get worse. This is particularly notable in Russia’s regions, far from the hipsters of Moscow and St. Petersburg. 

An economy that is growing because of the needs of the military and rising government spending has ensured wages outstripping inflation.

After the start of the war, inflation rocketed – but wages more than kept pace. Central Bank head Elvira Nabiullina said Friday that the economy’s “production capacity and labor reserves are almost totally committed.” In other words, there is no way of boosting production and the labor shortage is ongoing. That means salaries will continue to rise. Same the inflation.

The fact that Russians are living better is evident from their outgoings. Spending at cafes and restaurants, for example, is increasing.

Demand for non-food goods (i.e. items where purchases can be postponed or even canceled) has recovered from its slump in the months after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Its rate of growth now exceeds both inflation, and wage increases.

This does not look like the sort of panic buying that happens in a crisis, when many rush out to buy whatever consumer durables they can afford. Instead, Russians appear to have sufficient confidence in their finances to take out personal loans. Consumer confidence is approaching record levels, Nabiullina told reporters on Friday.

Of course, increased prosperity is not universal. But those who have lost out are the more wealthy Russians. The average income of the richest 10% in Russian society has increased by 27% since the start of the war. While this may seem a lot, it’s the lowest rise of all 10 income groups, and barely matches the combined inflation rate for the past two years. Incomes for the poorest in society have grown much faster.

“A large-scale redistribution of resources in favor of the less well-off has prompted a widespread shift in perceptions of justice for the first time since 1990,” Denis Volkov, director of independent pollster Levada Center, wrote in an article last month. According to Levada, the proportion of Russians who feel that the distribution of material wealth in Russia is getting more unfair fell from 45% in 2021 to 25% in November 2023.

Why the world should care

The war has caused disproportionate economic suffering for a small minority of privileged Russians living in big cities, working for international companies (or companies integrated into global networks) and regarding themselves as “citizens of the world.” The Kremlin has apparently given up on this group. Now, Russian citizens who once regarded themselves as forgotten and overlooked are ready to take their place. Both the war, and the Kremlin’s economic policies, resonate in the hearts and wallets of these people.

Putin Prepares For China Visit as Russia’s Dependence Grows

Putin’s first foreign visit after his upcoming inauguration could be to China. The Russian president could head eastward as soon as May, Reuters reported Tuesday. The increasing regularity of meetings between Putin and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, is testament to the rapidly deepening ties between the two countries.

• Putin and Xi met twice last year. In March, the Chinese leader came to Moscow. Then, in October, Putin made a visit to Beijing for the Belt and Road Forum. The Russian leader’s next trip would likely be a mirror of Xi Jinping’s Moscow visit. 
• Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s relationship with China has begun to look a lot like dependence. Western sanctions are pushing Moscow into Beijing’s embrace, with Sino-Russian trade last year topping $240 billion (China delivered 38% of Russia’s imports, and received 31% of Russian exports). Beijing now holds a monopoly in a range of goods (and, as a result, can charge Russia more than other countries).There was a 594% increase in imports of Chinese cars to Russia in 2023, and an almost 600% increase in imports of Chinese tractors.
• China is not just Russia’s leading trade partner. It also plays a key role in helping settle accounts with third countries. In just two years, the yuan has become the most important currency for Russian business. In December, 35.8% of Russian exports and 37% of imports were paid for in yuan. That’s more than the ruble (35.7% and 31.5% respectively). The amount of yuan held in Russian business and personal accounts last year even outstripped the U.S. dollar ($68.7 billion vs $64.7 billion). And lending to companies in yuan was up 3.6 times to $36.1 billion in 2023, primarily due to the conversion of debts once held in U.S. dollars and euros.
• Some media outlets speculated that one of Putin’s reasons for visiting China was to solve the problems some Russian financial institutions had with Chinese banks last year. The issues seemed to arise after U.S. President Joe Biden passed a decree tightening the penalties on third parties helping Russia evade Western sanctions. However, this speculation is probably little more than speculation. It’s true that correspondent banks in China began curtailing relationships with their Russian counterparts after the U.S. decree, and businesses complained of problems. But this did not halt financial transactions. “In general, payments were made and continue to be made,” a source from a Russian export company told The Bell. “It’s just that first-tier banks are being replaced by second and third-tier organizations.”
• The average time to verify funds received from Russia in China is now 18 days, according to the “Business Practice in China” Telegram channel. In other words, payment chains are adapting to new realities. “Before, the relationship was: client – Russian bank – foreign bank – client. Now, there are three or five more banks in the chain. But everything still works,” added The Bell’s source.

By Matt Taibbi, Substack, 2/17/24

The State Department is so unhappy a newspaper published details about where it’s been spending your taxes, it’s threatened to only show a congressional committee its records in camera until it gets a “better understanding of how the Committee will utilize this sensitive information.” Essentially, Tony Blinken is threatening to take his transparency ball home unless details about what censorship programs he’s sponsoring stop appearing in papers like the Washington Examiner:

A year ago the Examiner published “Disinformation, Inc.”, a series by investigative reporter Gabe Kaminsky describing how the State Department was backing a UK-based agency that creates digital blacklists for disfavored media outlets. Your taxes helped fund the Global Disinformation Index, or GDI, which proudly touts among its services an Orwellian horror called the Dynamic Exclusion List, a digital time-out corner where at least 2,000 websites were put on blast as unsuitable for advertising, “thus disrupting the ad-funded disinformation business model.”

The culprit was the Global Engagement Center, a little-known State Department entity created in Barack Obama’s last year in office and a surprise focus of Twitter Files reporting. The GEC grew out of a counter-terrorism agency called the CSCC and has a mission to “counter” any messaging, foreign or domestic as it turns out, that they see as “undermining or influencing the policies, security, or stability of the United States.” The GEC-funded GDI rated ten conservative sites as most “risky” and put the Examiner on its “exclusion” list, while its ten sites rated at the “lowest level of disinformation” included Buzzfeed, which famously published the Steele Dossier knowing it contained errors and is now out of business.

In an effort to find out what other ventures GEC was funding — an absurd 36 of 39 2018 contractors were redacted even in an Inspector General’s report — the House Small Business Committee wrote the State Department last June asking for basic information about where the public’s money was being spent. State and GEC stalled until December 3 of last year, when it finally produced a partial list of recipients. Although House Republicans asked for an “unredacted list of all GEC grant recipients and associated award numbers” from 2019 through the current year, the list the Committee received was missing “dozens” of contractors, including some listed on USASpending.com.

The Examiner and Kaminsky subsequently wrote an article slamming GEC for sending “incomplete” records of the censorship investigation, in the process including links to a “snippet” of the GEC’s contractors:

In response to the outrage of this disclosure, the State Department sent its letter threatening in camera sessions until it gets a better “understanding” of how the Committee will use its “sensitive” information. That’s Beltway-ese for “We wouldn’t mind knowing the Examiner’s sources.”

About that: the State letter wrote that the Examiner’s records were “reportedly obtained from the Committee,” and included a footnote and a link to a Kaminsky story, implying that the Examiner reported that it got the records from the Committee. But the paper said nothing about the source of the documents, which as anyone who’s ever covered these types of stories knows, could have come from any number of places. It’s a small but revealing detail about current petulance levels at State.

“Anti-disinformation” work is not exactly hypersonic missile construction. There’s no legitimate reason for it to be kept from the public, especially since it’s increasingly clear its programs target American media companies and American media consumers, seemingly in violation of the State Department’s mission. The requested information is also not classified, making the delays and tantrums more ridiculous.

There are simply too many agencies that have adopted the attitude that the entire federal government is one giant intelligence service, entitled to secret budgeting and an oversight-free existence. They need pushback on this score and have at last started to get it. Thanks in significant part to the Examiner as well as lawsuits by The Federalist, Daily Wire, and Consortium News, the latest National Defense Authorization Act included for the first time a provision banning the Pentagon from using “any advertiser for recruitment that uses biased censorship entities like NewsGuard and GDI,” as a congressional spokesperson put it in December. We’ll see how it pans out, but congress withholding money for domestic spy programs is at least a possible solution, now in play.

Perhaps it’s time for the State Department to receive a similar wake-up call. If GEC wants to put conditions on disclosure, can we put conditions on paying taxes? SMH, SMH…

Earlier today in Russia, a major terrorist attack took place at a concert hall outside of Moscow. The most up to date coverage from RT is citing 60 dead, however, I’m seeing it reported on Twitter that the number has reached 70 but I haven’t confirmed that yet. TASS News Agency is now reporting that 145 have been hospitalized including several children.

The attack seems to have been well coordinated and intended to inflict maximum death and destruction.

The latest reporting I could find is that Putin has been briefed on the attack but has not yet made any public statements.

RT reporting:

Russia suffered one of the worst terrorist attacks in its modern history on Friday. At least 40 people were killed and scores injured by a group of gunmen who stormed a large music venue just outside of Moscow.

Details are still emerging, but it appears that the attack was well prepared and designed to maximize casualties. Here is what is known so far.

A packed venue

The terrorists struck at Crocus City Hall, a concert venue located in Krasnogorsk, a settlement on the western outskirts of the Russian capital. It is part of a larger entertainment complex opened in 2009, which also includes a shopping mall and hotel.

The concert hall holds up to 7,500 people and was almost packed when the terrorists launched their assault. The popular rock band Picnic was set to perform.

Shooting spree

According to footage circulating online, some five gunmen took part in the shooting. They appeared to be carrying automatic firearms and had other military gear.

They reportedly killed the security guards – who were unarmed – at the main entrance to the venue, and blocked it before continuing their rampage inside.

Large blaze follows

Once the terrorists reached the concert hall, they reportedly set chairs inside on fire. The blaze spread across the building and reached the roof before firefighters could start combating it. Helicopters were seen pouring large quantities of water on the building following the attack.

Dozens killed

Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) has put the preliminary death toll in the attack at 40, adding that around 100 people have been injured.

At least 70 ambulances were dispatched to the scene to attend to the wounded, according to officials.

A list of wounded released by the Moscow Region Health Ministry has more than 140 entries, some of which are yet to be identified by name. Dozens of victims were said to be in serious condition.

Five people on the list are children as young as seven, while an 11-year-old girl is also listed.

Fate of the perpetrators

Russian law enforcement did not report any arrests in the wake of the shooting. Commando units were dispatched to the scene, but it was not immediately clear whether they confronted the gunmen inside.

Unconfirmed media reports said that several Crocus employees had been detained.

Dozens killed

Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) has put the preliminary death toll in the attack at 40, adding that around 100 people have been injured.

At least 70 ambulances were dispatched to the scene to attend to the wounded, according to officials.

A list of wounded released by the Moscow Region Health Ministry has more than 140 entries, some of which are yet to be identified by name. Dozens of victims were said to be in serious condition.

Five people on the list are children as young as seven, while an 11-year-old girl is also listed.

Fate of the perpetrators

Russian law enforcement did not report any arrests in the wake of the shooting. Commando units were dispatched to the scene, but it was not immediately clear whether they confronted the gunmen inside.

Unconfirmed media reports said that several Crocus employees had been detained.

READ MORE: US condemns Moscow terrorist attack

Identity of the terrorists

No terrorist group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack.

Senior Ukrainian official Mikhail Podoliak posted a video statement on social media shortly after the news broke. The aide to President Vladimir Zelensky distanced the Ukrainian government from the tragedy, claiming that Kiev does not resort to terrorism in its fight against Russia.

Reactions from abroad

International organizations and foreign governments, including those that Russia considers unfriendly, have condemned the terrorist attack.

White House White House National Security Communications Adviser John Kirby, who was giving a daily briefing shortly after the incident, called the images from the scene “hard to watch,” adding: “Our thoughts obviously are going to be with the victims of this terrible, terrible shooting attack.”

Security alerts in March

Earlier this month, the US issued a warning to its citizens in Russia, urging them to avoid public places and mass gatherings. The embassy claimed that “extremists” had imminent plans for an attack in Moscow. Several other embassies followed suit, issuing similar alerts.

Kirby stressed that Washington had “no advanced knowledge” of Friday’s shooting.

***

There is reporting that ISIS has claimed responsibility for the attacks. According to CNN:

ISIS has claimed responsibility for an attack at a popular concert venue complex near Moscow Friday that left at least 40 dead and more than 100 wounded after assailants stormed the venue with guns and incendiary devices.

The terror group took responsibility for the attack in a short statement published by ISIS-affiliated news agency Amaq on Telegram on Friday. The group did not provide evidence to support the claim.

Video footage from the site of the attack, the Crocus City Hall concert venue, shows the vast complex, which is home to both the music hall and a shopping center, on fire with smoke billowing into the air. State-run RIA Novosti reported the armed individuals “opened fire with automatic weapons” and “threw a grenade or an incendiary bomb, which started a fire.” They then “allegedly fled in a white Renault car,” the news agency said.

State media Russia 24 reported the roof on the venue has partially collapsed.

***

Judging from the commentary on Twitter, many are expressing skepticism at ISIS’s claim of responsibility as well as suspicion about the US government’s warning earlier in the month that extremists may attack Moscow. Let’s pray that neither Ukraine nor the US was behind this in any way. I understand that Putin is a long-term thinking and patient leader who tends to not let his opponents press him into unwise moves or relinquishing his own control of his responses. However, unlike other provocations, like the attack on Nordstream 2, I don’t think the Russian government would be able to let this one go for long.

An excerpt from Seymour Hersh’s “The Iron-Clad Pinata” published on 3/21/24:

The American official, who is kept abreast of the ongoing talks between leaders of the two armies at war, said that officials of the Biden administration, working with Zelensky, continue to rebuff any chances of significant progress in peace talks. The reality, he said, is “that the lands in dispute”—four oblasts formerly in Ukraine’s control and Crimea—“from north to south and east to west all are Russia’s. So stop talking about it and make a deal.” Right now, “Putin could drive to Lviv”—near the border with Poland in western Ukraine—“but what would he gain in terms of his current dominance? US vacillation and peace at home? He wants Kharkiv, and he will get it when he forces Zalensky to capitulate. 

“We were on the verge of a reasonable negotiation several months ago before Putin’s re-election and Zelensky’s military degradation. The US leaders got wind of the possibility and gave Zelensky the ultimatum—‘No negotiations or settlement or we won’t support your government with the $45 billion in non-military funds [that Ukraine is now receiving annually]. Biden has staked his presidency on meeting the Russian threat to NATO and outsmarting the monster, and he will not change course now, under any circumstances, and the end is inevitable. There is no road to victory for Ukraine, and it will end with Putin as an historical icon in Russia, having recovered a national jewel[Kharkiv]from the West.”