Kremlin website (machine translation), 6/7/24

The discussion was moderated by political scientist, historian, and academic supervisor of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs of the Higher School of Economics Sergey Karaganov….

S. Karaganov: Let’s move on to more political issues. You always talk about your desire to negotiate an end to the conflict with the West in Ukraine. This, of course, is a commendable and positive desire to negotiate.

But with whom to negotiate? Our Western partners have cheated us many times and are violating all the agreements that we reach with them. The Kiev regime is morally illegitimate, politically illegitimate and even legally illegitimate from the point of view of even the already failed state that exists there.

How is it even possible to conduct any kind of negotiations with them without first defeating them, without achieving complete surrender and without, so to speak, pointing a nuclear pistol at our Western opponents so that they don’t twitch anymore? Because, in principle, any agreements now will not be implemented until there is a defeat. Illegitimate and unreliable partners.

How to deal with this?

V. Putin: Well, yes, but, as Joseph Vissarionovich said, “I have no other writers” – he spoke in relation to the Union of Writers of the USSR at one time, when Beria came to snitch on them once again. He said: “I have no other writers.” Well, these are the partners – what should we do now, fight with everyone, or what?

We must, of course, seek agreements and conditions that would correspond to our interests and be as reliable as possible. You are right that it is very difficult to negotiate with such a public; they deceive at every step. They say one thing and do another. It’s sad, but all armed conflicts end in some kind of peace agreement. True, as one of the former leaders of a fairly significant European country told me, all these agreements can be based either on the basis of military defeat or on the basis of victory. We, of course, strive and will achieve victory.

The question of the legitimacy of those with whom we negotiate. Yes, there are problems there, of course. Because a preliminary, even cursory analysis of the legislation of Ukraine shows that the current executive authorities have lost their legitimacy.

There is the 103rd article of the Constitution [of Ukraine], which says that the President is elected for only five years, there is the 83rd article of the Constitution of Ukraine, which states that in conditions of martial law the powers of the Verkhovna Rada can be extended. Nothing has been said about extending the president’s powers.

There is a law on the essence of the martial law regime, and it says that under martial law, presidential elections are not held, but it does not say that they are prolonged – after all, I am a graduate of St. Petersburg University, Faculty of Law – and this is very important, this an essential thing: if it is not said, then it does not exist.

The Criminal Code has relevant articles that talk about usurpation of power. It looks like we are dealing with a usurpation of power. But negotiations can still be conducted, because, in my opinion, in accordance with Articles 109, 110, 111 of the Constitution, powers are transferred to the Speaker of the Rada. So if you want to negotiate, you can find someone to negotiate with.

We are ready for these negotiations, but only, I repeat, on the terms that we agreed on when we started these negotiations in Minsk and then in Istanbul, and not on some conjectures. Even if we take the agreements in Istanbul as a basis, we must still proceed from the realities of today. This is in general terms.

S. Karaganov: Vladimir Vladimirovich, naturally, the maxim that all wars end in negotiations is a false maxim, of course, it is being imposed on us. Most wars end in defeat and surrender of the enemy. This is the only way to end this war.

I move on to the next question, which is that the defeat and surrender of the enemy in the current circumstances, when America benefits from this war, and they will continue it, driving Ukrainians to slaughter and finishing them off, and now they will also drive Europeans to slaughter – This war will not be able to be stopped in the near future without rapid movement along the ladder of nuclear escalation. This is the first.

Second. The plates under the world system have moved apart. There will be a lot of conflicts that will arise objectively. There used to be a nuclear fuse, but now it has seriously weakened – fear of nuclear weapons. Do we understand that we have a huge responsibility not only to win this war – and for this we need to go much tougher on the ladder of escalation and be ready to use it – but also to return this nuclear fuse to the international system in order to prevent movement towards a huge wave of conflicts. After all, who, besides us, will do this? Who, besides you, will do this?

You have a huge responsibility. And if we crawl so slowly up this ladder, although there is, of course, movement, then I am afraid that we will seem to be shirking this responsibility. Although I understand the gravity of the moral choice.

Vladimir Putin: Regarding nuclear escalation: we never started this rhetoric. I don’t remember the name of this lady, the former Prime Minister of Great Britain, who, when asked when she became Prime Minister, said that she was ready to press the nuclear button.

We never said that. This is where it all started. We simply responded that we needed to take this more seriously; we immediately started saying that we were rattling nuclear weapons. We don’t rattle. First.

Secondly, what is use, non-use, in what case to use. We have a nuclear doctrine, and everything is written there. Yesterday I just spoke with the heads of news agencies and said this. We have everything written there: use is possible in exceptional cases – in the event of a threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country, in exceptional cases.

I don’t think that such a case has arisen – there is no such need. But this doctrine is a living instrument, and we carefully monitor what is happening in the world, around us, and do not rule out making some changes to this doctrine.

Now this is also connected with the testing of nuclear weapons. We once not only signed it, but also ratified it, the Americans signed it, but did not ratify it, so in today’s conditions we have withdrawn our ratification. But, if necessary, we will conduct tests. So far there is no such need either, since our information capabilities, computer ones, allow us to produce everything in its current form.

Now regarding speed, regarding results. You said that I have a great responsibility. Yes indeed. Is it possible to increase the speed of solving the problems we face? It is possible, but it is directly proportional to the losses. And, understanding my responsibility, I still proceed from what the General Staff and the Ministry of Defense propose. Speed ​​is important, but even more important is caring for the lives and health of our guys who are fighting at the front.

Combat work is underway. Just since the beginning of this year, 47 settlements, in my opinion, have been liberated – 880 square kilometers. We are gradually pushing the enemy out of the territory of Donbass and other adjacent territories. The General Staff and the Ministry of Defense have plans for the implementation and achievement of all our goals – we are acting according to this plan. I am confident that all these plans will be implemented.

S. Karaganov: Nevertheless, we understand perfectly well that accelerating movement along the nuclear escalation ladder can save a large number of lives, because it can bring some sense to our opponents, who took advantage of the fact that we, among other things, had such an easy doctrine.

I have no doubt that it will be changed, I hope that it will be changed soon, and you will now have the formal right to respond, if you so decide, with a nuclear strike to any attacks on our territory. This absolutely must be the sovereign right of our leader. I hope that such a statement will appear in our doctrine, and it will cool our opponents a little, and will also save our soldiers sooner or later.

Of course, now it’s probably too early to go for nuclear escalation, but we need to move towards this in order to cool down our opponents. They went crazy, especially the Europeans. They are going to war for the third time in almost a hundred years. The Americans are much more careful, they fed the Ukrainians, they push them, and they themselves are much more careful. But the Europeans are going to war.

I am a hunter, I know how animals behave. If you are attacked by a pack of wild dogs or hyenas and you have a stick, then you can hit them, drive them away, and there is a chance that you will drive them away. But most likely they will tear your trousers, and then, if you get tired, they will chew you off. If you have the opportunity to nail a couple, they will run away – I guarantee it.

President Mnangagwa knows the habits of hyenas. Do you agree with me, Mr. President, that this is how they disperse hyenas?

E. Mnangagwa (as translated) : Yes, you know, there are a lot of hyenas in Zimbabwe. But they are all kept in national parks so that they do not bother us. We don’t have any problems with them, and they multiply quickly. If someone wants a hyena, we can give it to you.

Vladimir Putin: We have enough of our own.

S. Karaganov: In Europe.

Again, I repeat this question – I bring it to the end. If we do not move more decisively along the ladder of escalation, will we not anger the gifts of the Almighty? After all, the Almighty once showed us the way, when he destroyed Sodom and Gomorrah with fiery rain for dissipation and debauchery. And after this, humanity remembered this for many years and behaved carefully, but now it has forgotten about Sodom and Gomorrah.

So, maybe let’s remember this rain and try again to bring some sense into humanity or that part of humanity that has lost faith in God and has lost its mind?

Vladimir Putin: Without me, maybe not? You will set the heat there! They were already scared.

Although, of course, one might think: You are now talking about Europeans – any logic is possible. If, God forbid, it comes to some kind of strike, then everyone should understand that Russia has an early warning system – a missile attack warning system. The USA has it. There is no such developed system anywhere else in the world. We have. In Europe there is no developed system; in this sense, they are more or less defenseless. This is the first.

The second is the power of the blows. Our tactical nuclear weapons are four times more powerful than the bombs the Americans used against Hiroshima and Nagasaki, three to four times. We have many times more of them – both on the European continent, and even if the Americans bring theirs from the USA – we still have many times more.

If it comes [to this], God forbid, which we really don’t want, then – you said “let’s reduce the sacrifices” – they can increase indefinitely. This is the first.

And second. Of course, these same Europeans will have to think: if those with whom we exchange such blows do not exist, will the Americans get involved in this exchange of blows at the level of strategic weapons or not? I very much doubt it, and Europeans should also think about it, that’s for sure.

But still, I proceed from the fact that it will never come to this and we do not have such a need, because our Armed Forces are not just gaining experience, increasing their efficiency – our defense-industrial complex is demonstrating its effective work. I have said it many times, I can repeat it: we have increased the production of ammunition by more than 20 times, we are many times greater than the enemy’s capabilities in aviation technology, we are significantly superior in armored vehicles, and so on, and so on. We don’t even need to think about this topic.

Please, and I would also ask everyone not to mention such things in vain once again.

S. Karaganov: You behave so responsibly and speak so responsibly, but we are dealing with partners who are absolutely irresponsible and have lost their minds.

V. Putin: A terrible person.

S. Karaganov: No, you know… You looked at these partners from the outside, like most of us, but I grew up in that system, this happened in my life. I have known them from a young age and I assure you that I have reason to say what I say.

Although I understand perfectly well and support your hesitation, because this is a terrible choice, and the choice should be made only as a last resort. But if they know that you are not ready to make this choice, they will endlessly try to fight and bleed us.

And at the same time, they are fighting not only against us – they are also fighting against our friends in the world majority, because we are the military-strategic root, the core of this world majority. If they turn us back, they will begin to suppress them again. I don’t know whether the gentlemen presidents agree with this.

Vladimir Putin: Allow me to make one remark.

The decisions of both mine and my colleagues with whom I work in this area are not associated with any hesitation – there is no hesitation and cannot be. All our decisions must be based on analysis – a real, objective analysis of the current situation. That’s what we do.

S. Karaganov: The day before yesterday you spoke to the heads of agencies and said something extremely interesting about the fact that we are ready and can supply our long-range weapons to countries that are enemies of our enemies. This made me very happy because it was long overdue. What, will we supply both high-precision and hypersound? Naturally, with your technical specialists? This could really seriously improve the situation in the world. For example, aircraft carriers, which are generally a meaningless tool now, in the current circumstances, will leave the world stage, and people will stop spending huge amounts of money on them.

So what will we supply? When and how? Of course, at the same time, I understand that under no circumstances should we do this ourselves, or at least we should say that we are not doing it.

Vladimir Putin: Regarding aircraft carriers. You said they were meaningless. No. They are meaningless only in some kind of global conflict in a strategic sense. And from the point of view of solving geopolitical problems, as an instrument of geopolitics, in order to move them towards those territories against which the same Americans, French or British want to fight and force them to do something, they make sense. True, taking into account the presence of modern hypersonic weapons in Russia and China, to a certain extent, of course, they lose their meaning. You urge us not to spend money on this. Let them spend it. Why did you say this out loud? Let them spend it….