Russia Matters, 8/8/24

Less than three weeks ago, Kamala Harris seemed to be firmly positioned in Joe Biden’s shadow as the incumbent fought to extend Democrats’ control of the White House for another four years. On July 21, however, the low-key VP was propelled to the front of this fight following Biden’s announcement that he was dropping out of the presidential race, a decision with roots in the incumbent’s disastrous debate performance against the GOP’s Donald Trump. The change of Democratic front-runner has made many (including RM’s staff) wonder what policies the world’s most powerful country might pursue under a President Harris. Given the aims of the Russia Matters project, we focused on trying to ascertain what Harris’ public words and actions may tell us about her potential policies toward post-Soviet Eurasia.  

It follows from Harris’ role as vice president under Biden that overall, the new Democratic presidential candidate—who has just chosen Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate—shares the traditional post-Soviet American foreign policy establishment view of “Russian people good, Russia’s leaders bad.”  

While Harris didn’t drive the Biden administration’s policy on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, she was, nevertheless, charged with “walking Volodymyr Zelenskyy through Western intelligence indicating an attack was days away, [and] pushing the Ukrainian president, who had been publicly dismissive of the threat, to prepare for war,” days before Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, according to WP’s recent review of her foreign policy views. Speaking five days before that invasion at the 2022 Munich Security Conference, Harris warned that the U.S. would impose “significant and unprecedented economic costs” on Russia if Moscow invaded Ukraine, but reiterated Biden’s position that U.S. forces would not be deployed to fight for Ukraine even as they would participate in “defend[ing] every inch of NATO territory.” One year later, speaking at the 2023 Munich Security Conference, Harris vowed that “the United States will continue to strongly support Ukraine… for as long as it takes.” During that same conference in the capital of Bavaria, Harris proved instrumental in advancing U.S.-led efforts to secure the release of U.S. citizens wrongly detained in Russia in exchange for Russian nationals held for espionage, assassination and other crimes in the West (these efforts bore fruit Aug. 1, 2024, with the largest prisoner exchange between Russia and the West since the Cold War). More recently, Harris represented the United States at the Ukraine Peace Summit in Switzerland on June 15 and 16, 2024, during which she announced $1.5 billion in aid for Ukraine. 

While actively involved in shaping America’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Harris is also attuned to Russia’s domestic politics. For instance, she was among the first foreign leaders to comment on the death of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny in a Russian prison colony on Feb. 16, 2024. “If confirmed, this would be a further sign of Putin’s brutality,” she said on that day. Harris also developed a relationship with Navalny’s wife, Yulia, writing a tribute to her after Time named her one of the 100 Most Influential People of 2024. 

Given that Harris has followed Biden’s line on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and other issues described above, it could be tempting to predict that a President Harris’ foreign policy toward Russia will simply follow Biden’s lead. Indeed, Harris’ aides have recently told WP that the core of her foreign policy would not likely swerve from Biden’s robust support for Ukraine. However, she is still likely to approach global problems differently from Biden, who has longtime personal relationships with leaders such as Putin, which has shaped his rigid views on many issues, according to WP’s sources.

The compilation of Harris’ views on various issues, which you can find below, is part of Russia Matters’ “Competing Views” rubric, where we share prominent American figures’ takes on issues pertaining to Russia, U.S.-Russian relations and broader U.S. policies affecting Russia. All sections may be updated with new or past statements. The quotes below are divided into categories similar to those in Russia Matters’ news and analysis digests; reflecting the most pertinent topic areas for U.S.-Russian relations broadly, and for the drivers of the two countries’ policies toward one another.

I. U.S. and Russian priorities for the bilateral agenda

Nuclear security and safety:

• Kamala Harris with Sens. Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) writing in response to the Trump administration’s Nuclear Posture Review: “Our review reportedly pays only superficial attention to the substantial threat posed by nuclear terrorism and nuclear proliferation. These efforts are just as important as deterring existing nuclear weapons states.” (Letter to President Trump, 01.29.18)

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs:

• Harris with Sens. Sanders and Warren signed a February 2018 letter to Trump, along with 15 other senators, saying he lacks the “legal authority” to carry out a preemptive strike on North Korea. (WP, 02.05.19)
• Putin’s potential meeting with Kim Jong Un [would be] an act of desperation … when you look at Russia’s unprovoked war on Ukraine, and the idea that they would supply ammunition to Russia, well, it’s predictable where that ends up. I also believe very strongly that for both Russia and North Korea, this will further isolate them… We are all absolutely clear and unequivocal about the goal of the complete denuclearization of North Korea. (The Hill, 09.10.23)

Iran and its nuclear program:

• Today’s decision to violate the Iran nuclear deal jeopardizes our national security and isolates us from our closest allies. This nuclear deal is not perfect, but it is certainly the best existing tool we have to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons and avoid a disastrous military conflict in the Middle East. (Kamala Harris’ statement, 05.08.18)
• Iran poses a real threat to the United States based on its nuclear capabilities, and the negotiation of the JCPOA … was a smart way to put a cap on that in terms of escalating the threat. … If this president is thinking about putting us in a position where we are in a war with Iran, the consequences will be absolutely unacceptable and tragic in terms of the young men and women who are American soldiers sent and deployed into something that was completely avoidable. (MSNBC, 09.16.19)

Humanitarian impact of the Ukraine conflict:

• Absolutely there should be an investigation and we should all be watching and I have no question that the eyes of the world are on this war and what Russia has done in terms of this aggression and these atrocities. (Reuters, 03.10.22)
• First, from the starting days of this unprovoked war, we have witnessed Russian forces engage in horrendous atrocities and war crimes. Their actions are an assault on our common values, an attack on our common humanity. And let us be clear: Russian forces have pursued a widespread and systemic attack against a civilian population — gruesome acts of murder, torture, rape, and deportation. … In the case of Russia’s actions in Ukraine, we have examined the evidence. We know the legal standards. And there is no doubt these are crimes against humanity. And I say to all those who have perpetrated these crimes and to their superiors who are complicit in these crimes: You will be held to account. (White House, 02.18.23)

Military and security aspects of the Ukraine conflict and their impacts:

• There is a playbook of Russian aggression, and this playbook is too familiar to us all. Russia will plead ignorance and innocence. It will create false pretext for invasion, and it will amass troops and fire power in plain sight. … Our forces will not be deployed to fight Ukraine, but they will defend every inch of NATO territory. (Times, 02.22.22)
• Ukraine has regained more than half the territory Russia occupied at the start of the conflict thanks, in part, to a massive supply of American and European weapons. The Russian military has suffered severe setbacks.  It has lost two thirds of its tanks and more than a third of its fleet in the Black Sea. Because of Putin’s aggression and recklessness, Russia has also suffered over 300,000 casualties. Remember, that’s more than five times what it lost in 10 years in Afghanistan. And now it forces conscripts onto the frontlines with as little as two weeks of training. (White House, 02.16.24)

Military aid to Ukraine: 

• The United States will continue to strongly support Ukraine. And we will do so for as long as it takes. (White House, 02.18.23)
• In partnership with supportive, bipartisan majorities in both houses of the United States Congress, we will work to secure critical weapons and resources that Ukraine so badly needs. And let me be clear: The failure to do so would be a gift to Vladimir Putin. (White House, 02.16.24)
• [To Zelenskyy] the President and I … will continue to work to secure the resources and weapons that you need to succeed. We will also continue to support your efforts to secure a just and lasting peace. … President Zelensky, as President Joe Biden and I have made clear, we will be with you for as long as it takes. (The Hill, 02.17.24)
• Ukraine needs our support, and we must give it. (NBC, 02.18.24)
• We see it in Ukraine, where our weapon deliveries and missile warnings help the people of Ukraine defend their homes and homeland, their sovereignty and territorial integrity. (White House, 05.30.24)
• President Biden and my support for the people of Ukraine is unwavering. We support Ukraine not out of charity but because the people of Ukraine and their future is in our strategic interests. It is in our interest to uphold international rules and norms, such as sovereignty and territorial integrity and the international system we helped create following World War Two, which bolsters America’s security and prosperity. It is in the interest of the United States to defend democratic values and stand up to dictators.  It is in our interest to stand with our friends, such as Ukraine. (White House, 06.15.24)

Punitive measures related to Russia’s war against Ukraine and their impact globally:

• We are working with our allies in that regard, and we’ve been very clear that we are prepared to issue sanctions [on Russia over Ukraine] like you’ve not seen before. (CBS/RIAN, 12.26.21)
• We will interpret any violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity by Russia and Vladimir Putin as an aggressive action and it will be met with costs, severe and certain, (ABC, 01.20.22)
• If Russia further invades Ukraine, the United States, together with our allies and partners, will impose significant and unprecedented economic costs. (White House, 02.19.22)
• We have also imposed economic costs on Russia for its aggression. And together with our G-7 partners, we have frozen Russia’s sovereign assets and made clear Russia must pay for the damages it has caused to Ukraine … If we fail to impose severe consequences on Russia, other authoritarians across the globe would be emboldened, because you see, they will be watching—they are watching and drawing lessons. (White House, 02.16.24)
• We will work to make sure Russia pays damages to Ukraine and ultimately, we want to see Ukraine emerge from this war as a nation that is free, democratic and independent. (The Hill, 02.17.24)

Ukraine-related negotiations: 

• Russia continues to say it is ready to talk while at the same time it narrows the avenues for diplomacy. Their actions simply do not match their words. (AP, 02.19.22)
• The U.S. was committed to continuing to impose costs on Russia and we will continue to work toward a just and lasting peace. (AP, 06.15.24)
• In contrast, [Russian ruler Vladimir] Putin put forward a proposal yesterday. However, we must be frank: he is not calling for negotiations, he is calling for surrender. The United States is supporting Ukraine not out of charity but because it is in our strategic interest. (Ukrainska Pravda, 06.15.24)

Great Power rivalry/new Cold War/NATO-Russia relations:

• Harris cited “public reporting” that the Russian government had put bounties on American soldiers in Afghanistan. (Responsible Statecraft, 10.14.20)
•  [At the beginning of talks with the leaders of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania:] I recognize the threats… we stand with you on this and many other issues… and we stand together as NATO allies. (White House, 02.18.22)
• The NATO alliance is stronger and Russia is weaker because of what Putin has done. (NDTV, 03.10.22)
• Russia is a bigger country. Russia is a powerful country. Russia decided to invade a smaller country called Ukraine so basically that’s wrong. (Mail Online, 03.01.22)
• If Putin thinks he can wait us out, he is badly mistaken. Time is not on his side. (White House, 02.18.23)
• The NATO alliance is stronger now than ever before, and the United States commitment to NATO and to its Article 5 is ironclad. … Our response to the Russian invasion is a demonstration of our collective commitment to uphold international rules and norms… if Putin were to succeed with his attack on these fundamental principles, other nations could feel emboldened to follow his violent example. (White House, 02.18.23)
• The United States is prepared to defend every inch of NATO territory. (U.S. Embassy in Georgia, 03.14.22)
• Now, thanks to the leadership of the United States, NATO is stronger, larger, more unified and more effective than ever before. We have reinforced NATO’s eastern flank with more weapons and forces, including air defense and fighter coverage, a sustained presence of army brigades, and a permanent U.S Army headquarters in Poland. (White House, 02.16.24)
• Donald Trump has embraced Putin. … It’s not just happening today. It’s been happening, as he, Trump, threatened to abandon NATO and encouraged Putin to invade our Allies. (Politico, 07.21.24.)

China-Russia: Allied or aligned?

• The reality is that North America and Europe have now done more together now than in many years. This is important in dealing with Russia’s aggressive actions, but also in dealing with a more competitive world and the security implications of China’s growth. (CE NoticiasFinancieras, 02.18.22)
• We must maintain open lines of communication to responsibly manage the competition between our countries.  (AP, 11.19.22)
• We are also troubled that Beijing has deepened its relationship with Moscow since the war began. Looking ahead, any steps by China to provide lethal support to Russia would only reward aggression, continue the killing, and further undermine a rules-based order. (White House, 02.18.23)

Missile defense:

• To be updated.

Nuclear arms:

• Harris with Sens. Sanders, Warren, Booker and Gillibrand writing in response to the Trump administration’s Nuclear Posture Review: “Your purported plans to develop new, more usable low-yield nuclear weapons and reintroduce Cold War-era weapons systems are unnecessary to maintain deterrence and are destabilizing. Further, your reported decision to expand the conditions under which the United States might use its nuclear weapons, including to respond to a broadened range of non-nuclear attacks, is equally disturbing.” (Letter to President Trump, 01.29.18)
• Harris with Sens. Sanders, Warren, Booker, Klobuchar and Gillibrand to Trump: “Your administration’s efforts to double down on new, unnecessary nuclear weapons while scrapping mutually beneficial treaties risks the United States sliding into another arms race with Russia and erodes U.S. nonproliferation efforts around the world. … A collapse of the INF Treaty and failure to renew New START would lead to the absence of verifiable limits on U.S. and Russian nuclear forces for the first time since the early 1970s. … Abandoning the Treaty would free Russia to expand its capacity to directly threaten the entire U.S. homeland.” (Letter to President Trump, 12.12.18)

Counterterrorism:

• [Harris on Russian bounties for U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan:] Is the intelligence in doubt? I would say during my three plus years of being on the Senate intelligence committee and therefore being in receipt of classified information about threats to our national security … I have come to highly respect the intelligence community for their professionalism, the detail and precision with which they work … It is well known and understood that part of the responsibility of the president of the United States is to concern himself or herself with the wellbeing of our service members … It would be wonderful to have a president who actually cares about those men and women and expresses some level of concern about their wellbeing but we don’t see that with Donald Trump in any meaningful way. (WP, 07.02.20)
• No, there is no, whatsoever, any evidence [of Ukraine’s involvement in the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack]. And first, let me start by saying what has happened in an act of terrorism and the number of people who’ve been killed is obviously a tragedy and we should all send our condolences to those families. (The Hill, 03.24.24, ABC, 03.24.24)

Conflict in Syria:

• Syrian President Bashar al-Assad viciously attacked innocent civilians, including scores of children, who suffocated to death from chemical weapons. This attack reinforces the clear fact that President Assad is not only a ruthless dictator brutalizing his own people—he is a war criminal the international community cannot ignore. President Trump must consult with Congress to address the administration’s lack of clear objectives in Syria and articulate a detailed strategy and path forward in partnership with our allies. (Statement, 04.06.17)
• What has happened in Syria is yet again Donald Trump selling folks out. And in this case, he sold out the Kurds, who, yes, fought with us and thousands died in our fight against ISIS. And let’s be clear. What Donald Trump has done, because of that phone call with Erdogan, is basically giving 10,000 ISIS fighters a “get out of jail free” card. And you know who the winner is in this? There are four: Russia, Iran, Assad and ISIS. (Democratic debate transcript, 10.16.19)

Cyber security/AI:

•  [W]e must act urgently to bolster our country’s defenses like our election infrastructure and cybersecurity, a bipartisan issue that we have been working on in a bipartisan way. (Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, 08.01.18)

Elections interference:

• I think we’re all clear that Russia attacked our country during the 2016 election and that they are continuing to attack us today. Russia not only attacked one of our most sacred democratic values, which is a free and fair election, but also, I believe, our very American identity. … [T]hey manipulated us and they are an adversary and they provoked us and they tried to turn us against each other. (Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, 08.01.18)
• Russia was able to influence our election because they figured out that racism, sexism, anti-Semitism, homophobia, and transphobia are America’s Achilles heel. These issues aren’t only civil rights — they’re also a matter of national security. We have to deal with that. (Twitter, 02.05.19)
• On this election issue, this long standing adversary decided that they wanted to attack us where we are strong, and one of the almost intangible strengths of America is we can hold ourselves out as a democracy, as flawed though we may be, it gives us the authority to walk in rooms and actually talk about human rights, talk about civil rights, talk about concepts of freedom. … [T]hey decide to attack the strongest pillar of democracy which is freedom and open elections. So let’s get Americans going at each other, what’s going to get heat? And they tried out a bunch of different things and you know what caught heat? The issue of race. So Russia exposed America’s Achilles heel. (NBC, 08.11.19)
• We need to … upgrade the elections infrastructure, knowing that Russia needs to be held accountable for the fact that they interfered in the election of the president of the United States and will attempt to do it again. (Democratic debate transcript, 10.15.19)
• When they influenced our elections, they diminished in some ways the integrity of our election system and therefore their goal was accomplished … and they did it through technology. … Until we can get legislation passed, I would urge that social media companies institute [requiring disclosures] as their policy … 2020 is not going to be immune and [there will be] attacks, misinformation campaigns, distortions of reality and truth to turn the American people off from this election. (Remarks at Lesbians Who Tech Pride Summit, 06.21.20)
• I serve on the Senate Intelligence Committee. We have published detailed reports about exactly what we believe happened. And I do believe that there will be foreign interference in the 2020 election, and that Russia will be at the front of the line. (WP, 09.06.20)
• Let’s take for example, Russia. So, I serve on the intelligence committee of the United States Senate. America’s Intelligence Community told us Russia interfered in the election of the president of the United States in 2016 and his plan in 2020. Christopher Wray, the director of the FBI, said the same, but Donald Trump, the commander in chief of the United States of America, prefers to take the word of Vladimir Putin over the word of the American Intelligence Community. You look at our friends at NATO, he has walked away from agreements. (Vice presidential debate, 10.07.20)
• I serve on the Intelligence Committee of the United States Senate. America’s intelligence community told us Russia interfered in the election of the president of the United States in 2016 and is playing in 2020. (Responsible Statecraft, 10.14.20)

Energy exports:

• There could be a knock-on impact to energy prices paid by American consumers from ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris said, adding that the U.S. government is working to mitigate the effects. (Reuters, 02.20.22)

Climate change:

• To be updated.

U.S.-Russian economic ties:

• To be updated.

U.S.-Russian relations in general:

• [On the release of Russian-held prisoners in the Aug. 1, 2024 exchange:] [They and their families] have shown incredible courage in the face of atrocious and devastating circumstances. Russian authorities arrested, convicted them in sham trials, and sentenced them to long prison terms. This has been an appalling perversion of justice. Over many years President Biden and I and our team have engaged in complex diplomatic negotiations to bring these wrongfully detained Americans home. We never stopped fighting for their release… We will never waver in our commitment to bring home every American who has been wrongfully detained or held hostage. That is my solemn commitment to my fellow Americans which I will always honor. (AP News, 08.01.24)

II. Russia’s domestic policies

Domestic politics, economy and energy:

• [On Alexei Navalny’s death:] If confirmed, this would be a further sign of Putin’s brutality. … Whatever story they tell, let us be clear, Russia is responsible. (Independent Online, 02.16.24)
• Alexei Navalny has been a brave leader who stood up against corruption and autocracy, and he stood up for the truth. (Presidendcy.ucsb.edu, 02.17.24)
• [Yulia] Navalnaya has vowed to continue her husband’s fight for justice and the rule of law, giving renewed hope to those working against corruption and for a free, democratic Russia. And in so doing, she demonstrates exceptional selflessness and strength. Since that day in Munich, Navalnaya has emerged not only as a symbol of democratic values, but as a courageous fighter for them. The United States stands with her—and all those fighting for freedom and democracy. (Time, 04.07.24)

Defense and aerospace:

• [On Russia’s test of an anti-satellite weapon] Without clear norms for the responsible use of space, we face real threats to our national and global security. By blasting debris across space, this irresponsible act endangered the satellites of other nations as well as the astronauts on the International Space Station. (CNN, 12.01.21)

Security, law-enforcement and justice:

• N/A

III. Russia’s relations with other countries

Russia’s general foreign policy and relations with “far abroad” countries:

• See Great Powers competition and U.S.-Russian relations in general sections above.

Ukraine:

• The American people, you see, are in awe of the resolve of the people of Ukraine, in awe of their resilience and righteousness, their willingness to fight for freedom and liberty, and the extraordinary tenacity and leadership of President Zelenskyy. (White House, 02.18.23)

Other post-Soviet republics:

• President Biden and I have been following events in Georgia with great concern. We worry about developments, such as the Georgian parliament’s recent passage of the foreign agents bill, that could threaten Georgia’s democracy and undermine Georgia’s relationship with the United States and Europe. We applaud your recent actions to veto that anti-democratic measure and your commitment to protect civil society as it comes under threat in Georgia. (Messenger Online, 05.28.24)