Moscow Times, 9/20/24
Over 70,000 Russian soldiers have been confirmed killed in Ukraine since the Kremlin launched its invasion more than two and a half years ago, according to an independent tally by the BBC’s Russian service and the independent Mediazona news website.
The two outlets have been verifying the number of Russian troops killed through open-source information including official statements, newspaper obituaries and social media posts.
The latest death toll update, published Friday by the BBC’s Russian service, highlights how the demographic profile of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine has shifted since the full-scale invasion. Currently, one in five of the dead had signed a contract with the Russian army or the National Guard (Rosgvardia) after the war started, and more than half were not affiliated with the military before Feb. 24, 2022.
In 2022, the average Russian soldier killed was a 21-year-old contract serviceman in elite units like Special Forces, Airborne Forces or the Marines. Now, those dying in the conflict tend to be men in their 40s, 50s or even 60s, often lacking combat experience or specialized training.
The report found a steady rise in casualties among volunteers since October 2023, coinciding with a renewed Russian offensive in the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka. Meanwhile, losses among mobilized troops and prisoners have remained steady.
As of Sept. 20, the republic of Bashkortostan has reported the highest confirmed losses, with 2,775 deaths, while the far northern Nenets Autonomous District has the lowest, with 55 residents confirmed killed.
Russia has lost 4,104 officers in Ukraine, including seven generals. Among the fallen are 458 high-ranking officers, including lieutenant colonels and above, and 1,142 elite command specialists.
The BBC estimates that their count covers only 45% to 65% of the actual death toll. This suggests that the real number of Russian military deaths could range from 107,864 to 155,804.
The tally does not account for fighters from the self-proclaimed Luhansk or Donetsk People’s Republics of occupied eastern Ukraine — the BBC estimates the fighter death toll from there at between 21,000 and 23,500.
The Russian Defense Ministry last updated its official death toll for the war in Ukraine in September 2022, placing the figure at fewer than 6,000 killed.
Given the source publication, (Moscow Times), and its orientation, I view this report with a healthy skepticism. They might be wrong or right, but they do have a definite bias.
Maybe, maybe not.
“In 2022, the average Russian soldier killed was a 21-year-old contract serviceman in elite units like Special Forces, Airborne Forces or the Marines. Now, those dying in the conflict tend to be men in their 40s, 50s or even 60s, often lacking combat experience or specialized training.”
Which is pretty much an admission that either they are counting Ukrainians or they are just taking any deaths of men under 70 and interpreting them as military deaths.
What we know for certain is that Russia has not recruited untrained men in their 50s while Ukraine mostly trains them.
Pity the Mediazone figures were credible for a while – when they had an actual count and added some 25% to make an estimate. Now the 25% extra has been raised to some 100% and the actual count has become nonsense.
Time BBC abandoned them.
Alexander Mercouris/The Duran has mentioned several times that Mediazona was pressured to change some of their methods, or rather the BBC was pressured, and I assume they persuaded their partner to “improve” the method of calculation. I wish I could recall the source he used. In general he’s given the Mediazona/Medusa effort praise, and wished that something similar was done for the Ukraine side, so I assume his source was reasonable, or even unimpeachable.