Russia Matters, 9/20/24

1. Rossiiskaya Gazeta has just published an interview with the head of Russia’s Central Test Site, in which he vowed that this facility, which hosted more than 200 nuclear detonations before 1990, is ready to resume testing at any moment. In the interview with this Russian government daily, Rear Adm. Andrei Sinitsyn states at least thrice that this Novaya Zemlya archipelago-based facility is ready for resuming tests. “If the order is given, we will begin tests at any moment,” the admiral stated. “If the task is set to resume testing, it will be completed within the specified time frame,” he vowed.  “The test site is ready to resume full-scale testing activities,” he said.¹ Sinitsyn’s interview is apparently meant to contribute to the Russian military-political leadership’s continued effort to dissuade the U.S. and its allies from approving Ukraine’s use of Western-made long-range missiles against targets inside “mainland Russia,” as well to exercise general pressure on the U.S. and allies as they ponder the amount and types of continued military aid to Ukraine. The interview was published less than a week after Vladimir Putin warned that if NATO countries allow Ukraine to use their long-range missiles for such strikes, it would mean that these countries “are at war with Russia.” Russia “will make appropriate decisions in response to the threats that will be posed to us,” according to Putin, who has earlier said that Russia will resume nuclear tests if the U.S. does.*
2. The number of Ukrainians and Russians killed or wounded in the war has reached roughly one million, WSJ reported, citing Ukrainian and Western estimates. Ukraine’s and Russia’s casualties are estimated to have totaled 480,000 and 600,000, respectively, this daily reported. Mobilization for the Ukrainian army, which is expected to help compensate for its personnel losses, is on track, but it would take another three months before the newly-trained troops could make an impact on the battlefield, head of the defense committee of Ukraine’s parliament, Oleksandr Zavitnevych, told the FT. One obstacle for this recruitment campaign is that Ukraine has lost at least 10 million people to occupation or as refugees in the past decade, according to Ukrainian government estimates cited by WSJ. About one year ago, U.S. officials estimated that the total number of Ukrainian and Russian troops killed or wounded since the war in Ukraine began was nearing half a million, according to NYT. Thus, if these latest estimates are accurate, then casualties have doubled in about one year.
3. Russian authorities have reportedly ordered their armed forces to push Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region by mid-October 2024 and to establish a “buffer zone” into Ukrainian border areas along the international border with Russia in northeastern Ukraine by the end of October, according to ISW. It has also been reported by The Guardian that Russia’s military had anticipated a possible Ukrainian advance into the southwestern Kursk region for months prior to the actual incursion in early August.
4. Ukraine’s electricity deficit this winter could reach as much as 6GW, around a third of anticipated peak demand, according to the IEA. “It’s time for everybody to understand that this winter could be consequential in Ukraine,” Fatih Birol, director-general of this agency, told the FT. Half of all Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been destroyed, roughly equivalent to the capacity of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, according to FT. 
5. U.S. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic party’s presidential nominee, will hold separate meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Sept. 26 to discuss what he calls Ukraine’s “victory plan.” Zelenskyy has refused to disclose the plan, which he also wants to share with Donald Trump. The Ukrainian leader did disclose that “most of the decisions on the plan depend” on Biden, and that these decisions need to be made in October to December, according to Ukrainska Pravda. Zelenskyy’s decision to focus on obtaining Biden’s support during his visit to the U.S. is understandable, given that a potential Trump administration’s approach to ending the war calls for a “demilitarized zone” on Ukrainian territory and a guarantee of its neutrality, according to Republican vice-presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance.