Russia Matters, 9/27/24

U.S. intelligence agencies believe that Russia is likely to retaliate with greater force against the United States and its coalition partners, possibly with lethal attacks, if they agree to give the Ukrainians permission to use their long-range missiles for deep strikes inside Russia, NYT reported. As the debate continued this week among Ukraine’s Western allies, officials interviewed by WP said that the Ukrainians had expected Joe Biden to have already granted permission by now. 

Russia has made fresh gains in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region this week. Moscow’s forces captured the town of Ukrainsk near the logistical hub of Pokrovsk, and looked closer to encircling Vulhedar and Kurakove, which, if taken, would allow Russia to encircle and take Pokrovsk, severing Ukraine’s main supply line to the region according to FT and Ukrainian group DeepState. FT reported that Russian forces have moved within 8 kilometers of Pokrovsk and just 4 kilometers of Myrnohrad. On each of two days last week, the Ukrainian military reported more than 200 clashes between the two sides—the highest such numbers in many months, according to DeepState,

Russia plans to spend 6.2% of GDP on defense in 2025 and sees only slight declines in the following two years as Putin’s war on Ukraine shows no sign of ending, Bloomberg reported. Draft three-year budget proposals seen by Bloomberg News show the government intends to increase defense spending to 13.2 trillion rubles ($142 billion) in 2025 from 10.4 trillion rubles projected for this year. Additionally, the Kremlin is planning to spend more than 40 trillion rubles ($431 billion) over six years to achieve social targets Putin set for his current presidential term, according to Bloomberg.