Russia Matters, 10/25/24

Russia in Review, Oct. 18-25, 2024

5 Things to Know

1. Russia hosted the first BRICS summit since the group’s expansion to nine members with leaders from 32 countries, including China and India, as well as the U.N. General Secretary, participating in the event that took place in Kazan this week. The Oct. 22–24 summit, which has become the largest geopolitical event hosted by Russia since the invasion of Ukraine, symbolized Kremlin’s efforts to promote a multipolar world order as an alternative to U.S. dominance. One key item on the summit’s agenda was discussion of Russia’s “BRICS Bridge” proposal, aiming to create a blockchain-based payment system to bypass the U.S. dollar. However, practical progress on implementing Russia’s financial proposals was reportedly limited, as countries face U.S. pressure not to collaborate with Russia’s financial system. Putin, Xi and some other leaders of the BRICS countries’ would like this group to become a competitor to Western-led international organizations, while others, such as Modi, are careful to avoid turning the group into an alternative to global organizations. Lack of consensus on the issue is reflected in the Kazan summit’s declaration. It contains 20 references to multipolarity and multilateralism, calling for a more just world order. The declaration’s signatories also offer some implicit criticism of the West by asserting that “we are deeply concerned about the disruptive effect of unlawful unilateral coercive measures, including illegal sanctions, on the world economy, international trade and the achievement of the sustainable development goals.” However, while shaming, the declaration doesn’t name any particular group of countries.* 
2. Some 1,500 servicemen of North Korea’s Eleventh Army, an elite unit known as the “Storm Corps,” are undergoing training in Russia as part of a 10,000–12,000-strong unit that will be tasked with helping Russia to re-take parts of its Kursk region held by Ukrainian armed forces, according to South Korean intelligence as cited by Bloomberg and FT. The balance of forces in this region, where the Ukrainian army has already had to cede up to half of its gains, is already reportedly tilting slowly in Russia’s favor. U.S. officials have earlier this week acknowledged the presence of North Korean servicemen in Russia, but have not given any hints on whether and how Ukraine’s allies may respond if the DPRK personnel are employed to fight on Russia’s side. Meanwhile, Putin has appeared to acknowledge that North Korean troops had been deployed to his country, according to NYT. Alluding to the DPRK-RF treaty, which has a mutual assistance clause, Putin said on Oct. 24 that he “never doubted at all that the North Korean leadership takes our agreements seriously.”¹
3. A U.S. official told Fox News that America’s Intelligence Committee (IC) and Department of Defense (DOD) have recommended against modifying a U.S. policy that would allow Ukraine to strike targets deep within Russia using U.S.-made long-range missiles. According to the IC and DOD analysis, a change in policy would not have a strategic impact nor would it change the course of the war. In addition, “[i]t would be irresponsible if we didn’t take into account what Russia would do,” the official said. Russia is a “nuclear power capable of doing very bad things both to Ukraine and to the U.S.,” Fox News quoted the U.S. official as saying shortly after the Biden administration had announced a new $400 million shipment of arms to Ukraine. The new package includes ammunition for missile and artillery systems, armored personnel carriers, and satellite communication equipment, according to ISW.
4. Russia is open to a “reasonable compromise” but won’t make any concessions to end its war in Ukraine, Putin said in a TV interview that aired after he completed hosting the BRICS summit in Kazan. “We are ready to make reasonable compromises, but I don’t want to go into details right now because there are no substantive negotiations,” Putin was quoted by Bloomberg as saying in this TV interview broadcast Oct. 25. One day prior to the broadcast, Putin had told a BRICS summit press conference that “We are ready to consider any options for peace agreements, based on the realities that are developing on the ground,” repeating his earlier demands that Ukraine accept Russia’s land grabs. Last week, Putin said Russia is ready to hold a dialogue on a peaceful settlement, but only based on draft agreements Russian and Ukrainian negotiations discussed in Istanbul in spring 2022.
5. Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that if Russia and Ukraine can agree to refrain from attacking each others’ energy infrastructure, it could lead to the cessation of hostilities and peace talks, FT reported. “We saw during the first [peace] summit that there could be a decision on energy security. In other words: we do not attack their energy infrastructures, they don’t attack ours. Could this lead to the end of the war’s hot phase? I think so,” the Ukrainian leader was quoted by this U.K. newspaper as saying.