Russia Matters: Russia Takes Strategically Important Town of Vuhledar; Stoltenberg Suggests Ukraine Bear With Territorial Loss

Russia Matters, 10/4/24

4 Things to Know

  1. Ukrainian armed forces have abandoned the strategically important town of Vuhledar in the Donetsk region this week. Control of this eastern town is considered important by both sides due to its position on elevated ground and its place at the intersection of the eastern and southern battlefield fronts, giving it added significance for supplying both sides’ forces, according to Reuters. Vuhledar’s strategic importance is further heightened by its proximity to a rail line connecting Donbas in the east to Crimea in the south, according to Al Jazeera. 
  2. When asked by FT what he would propose to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Jens Stoltenberg demurred, then suggested a historical comparison. “Finland fought a brave war against the Soviet Union in ’39. They imposed much bigger costs on the Red Army than expected… The war ended with them giving up 10% of the territory. But they got a secure border,” said Stoltenberg, who served as NATO’s general secretary until Oct. 1.
  3. Russia’s Defense Ministry will soon have the authority to determine whether the conditions for using nuclear weapons are met, Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Sept. 29, according to MT. The Russian presidential spokesman said that the amendments to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which were announced by Putin last week and which would liberalize Russia’s conditions for nuclear use as the U.S. deliberates whether to allow Ukraine to use Western-supplied longer-range missiles against targets in Russia, will be legally formalized soon. When asked to comment on Putin’s announcement, his Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters at the U.N. in New York, “We expect that those who are interested in our approaches will listen… When it finally becomes clear whether they allow Ukraine to use long-range weapons or not, we will see how they understood what they heard.”
  4. Russia plans to increase state spending on national defense by a quarter in 2025 to 6.3% of GDP, marking a new post-Soviet high, according to draft budget documents published this week and seen by Reuters. Defense spending will rise to 13.5 trillion rubles ($145 billion) next year, according to these documents. Russia lags behind the U.S. and China in terms of defense spending last year, as measured by SIPRI in current dollars and exchange rates. If measured in purchasing power parity terms, however, the gap between the U.S. and Russia in defense spending would be substantially narrower.*