By Anatol Lieven, UnHerd, 11/10/24

The Russian establishment profoundly distrusts Donald Trump. Though usually forgotten in the West, it was his administration — not Barack Obama’s or Joe Biden’s – which began the supply of weapons to Ukraine in 2017. Trump also allowed US intelligence to build up the presence in Ukraine that played an important role in preventing Russian victory in the first months of 2022. In fact, apart from some complimentary remarks about Vladimir Putin, the US President-elect has done little to improve relations with Russia.

Following Trump’s election win this week, the Russian Foreign Ministry declared that it had “no illusions” about him, adding that America’s “ruling political elite adheres to anti-Russia principles and the policy of ‘containing Moscow’” no matter which party is in charge. While Putin himself is more sympathetic, on Thursday hailing Trump’s “desire to restore relations with Russia, to help end the Ukrainian crisis”, these comments can be attributed to a recognition that the Russian President needs to maintain good relations with his American counterpart.

When it comes to negotiations with the Trump administration to end the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin still has one big fear. This, according to members of the Russian establishment with whom I spoke this summer, is a repeat of Trump’s notorious initiative to negotiate a deal with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un. In that instance, Trump launched into an exercise in personal diplomacy without preparation or any understanding of the other side — or seemingly of his own aims. When the talks failed, Trump responded with furious bluster and left US relations with Pyongyang in even worse shape than before.

Moscow worries that Trump may make Putin a peace offer which he genuinely thinks is a generous and viable one, but which fails to meet minimal Russian conditions, and that if Putin rejects it Trump will turn violently against Russia. There is also fear in the Kremlin that opponents of a deal in the State Department may deliberately set Trump up to fail in this way, and that the President-elect’s immediate team will not see it coming. That’s before factoring in a Ukrainian establishment which is likely to bitterly resist a compromise peace.

Trump’s own advisors are reported to be deeply divided on the subject of Ukraine. And, according to one former aide, “anyone — no matter how senior in Trump’s circle — who claims to have a different view or more detailed window into his plans on Ukraine simply doesn’t know what he or she is talking about.” More than that, in the words of the same aide, they don’t “understand that he makes his own calls on national-security issues, many times in the moment, particularly on an issue as central as this”.

To have a chance of success, formal negotiations will therefore have to be preceded by preparatory talks, preferably in secret. Each side can then explore which of the other’s conditions are basic and non-negotiable, and which are open to compromise. We do not yet know Trump’s choices for secretary of state and national security advisor, or what their attitudes to Russia and Ukraine will be. Yet sheer military reality has seemingly persuaded most of his team that Ukrainian recovery of all its lost territory is now impossible.

As one advisor on the 2024 campaign, Bryan Lanza, told the BBC this week: “if President Zelensky comes to the table and says, ‘well, we can only have peace if we have Crimea’, he shows to us that he’s not serious […] Crimea is gone.” Lanza added that the US plan is “not a vision for winning, but it’s a vision for peace”.

However, the Moscow establishment — and, according to opinion polls, most of the Russian public — cannot countenance withdrawal not just from Crimea but from any of the territory that Russia holds in the five Ukrainian provinces it claims to have annexed. Putin has demanded that Ukraine withdraw from the territory it still holds in these provinces, but this is just as impossible as Kyiv’s demand that Russia withdraw from all the territory it occupies in Ukraine.

These must therefore be understood not as absolute conditions but as initial bargaining positions. It seems probable that a ceasefire along the actually existing battle-line — but without formal recognition of Russia’s annexations — will be a central part of any Trump proposal.

Putin’s insistence that Ukraine sign a treaty of neutrality, and that Nato membership be categorically excluded, is supposedly non-negotiable but could yet be subject to compromise. Russia might accept a lengthy moratorium on Ukraine’s application for Nato membership — for example, 20 years, as reportedly proposed by some members of Trump’s team — but this is a question that can only be clarified in talks.

The question remains as to what will happen in the 73 days until Trump actually takes office. President Joe Biden is already rushing through a major tranche of aid, a smart move geared towards strengthening the US at the negotiating table. The Pentagon is also for the first time officially allowing US military contractors to repair and maintain American weaponry inside Ukraine. Some fear — hopefully without reason — that the Biden administration will go much further and initiate a drastic escalation in an effort to preemptively wreck any talks.

A new crisis may also be initiated from the Russian side. If the Russians know the only territory they will get in Ukraine is that which they actually occupy, then they obviously have a huge incentive to take as much ground as possible before Trump enters office. At the very least, they will want to push Ukrainian troops out of the remaining territory they hold in the Russian province of Kursk. The next few weeks may therefore bring a major Russian offensive, whose outcome could have a significant effect on ensuing peace talks.