Russia Matters, 11/1/24

1. Russia gained more territory in October, including 160+ square miles in the Donetsk region, than in any month since July 2022, according to NYT’s analysis of ISW maps. According to estimates, which ISW itself shared with RM, the Russian armed forces have made a net gain of 206 square miles between Sept. 30, 2024, and Oct. 31, 2024. Just this week, Russian gains acknowledged by Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT project included the seizures of Levadne, Hirnyk, Bohoyavlenka, Novoukrainka, Selydove, Vyshneve, and Zoryane. Capture of Selydove can give the Russian army a tactical exit to Pokrovsk, which is a key logistics hub for Ukrainian forces in the Donbas, according to Ukrainian Gen. Dmytro Marchenko. “This is very bad for us,” he said, according to the Daily Telegraph. “I won’t be revealing a military secret if I say that our front has crumbled,” said the general. While Ukrainian forces have so far managed to hold on to Pokrovsk, Russia is slicing its way through Ukrainian defenses elsewhere, according to an Oct. 29 story in the Economist. Russia cannot fight forever, but the worry is that, on current trends, Ukraine’s breaking point will come first, according to this U.K. newspaper. Those involved in the guts of planning in the Pentagon say the narrow focus is on preventing defeat. “At this point we are thinking more and more about how Ukraine can survive,” a person involved in that planning told the Economist. Interestingly, the headline on this story, which The Economist ran on Oct. 29 and which RM staff accessed on that day and wrote about in a post on X, said “Ukraine is now struggling to survive, not to win.”¹ On Oct. 31, however, that story’s headline already read “Ukraine is now struggling to cling on, not to win.”*   
2. Volodymyr Zelenskyy told journalists this week that the Ukrainian forces have received only 10% of a $61 billion U.S. aid package pledged in April, blaming delays on bureaucracy and logistics. He has repeatedly asked the U.S., so far without success, to provide long-range weapons so that Ukraine can strike military targets in Russia, per his victory plan, according to Bloomberg. In one part of his victory plan, Zelenskyy proposed a “nonnuclear deterrence package,” in which Ukraine would get Tomahawk missiles, a totally unfeasible request, a senior U.S. official told NYT.Ukrainian Gen. Dmytro Marchenko said that Zelenskyy’s victory plan was too heavily focused on pleading with Western allies for more support. “This plan lacks any points addressing Ukraine or our needs,” Marchenko said of Zelenskyy’s plan, according to the Daily Telegraph. Referring to Western supplies of arms to Ukraine, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin wrote in FA, “There is no silver bullet. No single capability will turn the tide. No one system will end Putin’s assault. What matters is the combined effects of Ukraine’s military capabilities—and staying focused on what works.”   
3. More than two-thirds of Ukrainians believe it’s time to start peace talks with Russia, according to a recent survey by the Kyiv-based Razumkov Center cited by Bloomberg. This represents an increase of 14 percentage points on the same period last year. As for Russians’ attitudes toward peace, a majority of them support ending hostilities and launching peace negotiations, according to the results of a recent poll by the Levada Center. However, when asked by Levada if Russia should make concessions in such negotiations, a vast majority answered in the negative.
4. In a recent interview, Zelenskyy reiterated that he was still against ceding territory, but he also talked about diplomatic steps on the protection of energy infrastructure and safe shipping in the Black Sea. He also hinted at one approach that might allow Ukraine to save face if it does not reclaim all the land Russia has captured, NYT reported. “No one will legally recognize the occupied territories as belonging to other states,” he said. Zelenskyy may also strive to show Ukrainians that he has done all he can, prepare them for the possibility that Ukraine might have to make a deal and give Ukrainians a convenient scapegoat: the West, according to NYT. Meanwhile, some in Moscow hope Vladimir Putin will be ready to open peace talks once Russian troops reach the administrative border of the Donetsk region, Sergei Markov, a political consultant close to the Kremlin, told Bloomberg. So far, however, Putin would not even discuss the mutual non-targeting of energy infrastructure with Ukraine, to say less of a peace deal, until the Ukrainian army loses control of over 600 square kilometers of Russian land in the Kursk region, according to a Kremlin insider. Ukraine needs a deal on non-targeting of energy infrastructure more than Russia does, given Russia’s vast energy resources and that some 60% of Ukraine’s power generation has been knocked out by Russian attacks.