The Bell, 11/18/24

Russia’s reaction to the prospect of ATACMS strikes

The news that the United States will allow Ukraine to use its missiles to hit targets inside Russian territory was an unpleasant surprise for Russia’s leaders on Sunday evening. It is by no means certain that it will hand Ukrainian forces a significant advantage on the battlefield, but Vladimir Putin has previously said that he would regard such a move as equivalent to the US directly entering the war. According to The Bell’s sources, that is not just rhetoric — the Kremlin leader genuinely does see it that way. Now that it has become a reality, Moscow is searching for a response.

• The US decision to permit Ukraine to strike at Russia’s internationally recognized territory with long-range ATACMS missiles has not yet been announced publicly by any administration official. However, on Sunday evening several US media outlets reported simultaneously, citing administration insiders, that the green light had been given — and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky also referenced it cryptically in his evening address. The Kremlin did not respond right away, but on Monday, Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that the US decision injected a “significant new round of tension” into the conflict. Hours later, the foreign ministry said the decision radically changes the nature of the conflict and said Moscow would respond “appropriately and palpably”. Both directly referred to Putin’s speech of Sep. 12, when he spoke at length about the potential consequences of such a decision.
• At that time, Putin’s statement came in response to a New York Times report (which on that occasion turned out to be premature) that Biden might allow Ukraine to use ATACMS to strike deep into Russia. Putin said such a move “would mean that NATO countries — the US, European countries — were at war with Russia.” He added that Ukraine is not capable of carrying out such strikes by itself and that NATO personnel would have to enter the flight assignments and targets for the missiles. His words were indirectly backed up today by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who explained Germany’s refusal to supply Ukraine with its own long-range Taurus rockets was because Germany would have to take part in setting up the strike parameters — helping with targeting — something that was unacceptable to Scholz.
• Judging by TV broadcasts, Russian propaganda appears to be in a holding pattern — awaiting further instructions on how to respond. So far they have adopted something like “moderate nuclear threat” mode. Leading state TV host Dmitry Kiselyov, whose main weekly show was prepared ahead of the news, inserted a quick segment about a possible Russian response into a section about Joe Biden’s talks with European leaders at this week’s G20 in Brazil. “It could be anything, it’s not for nothing that we revised our nuclear doctrine,” Kiselyov said. The on-duty hawks, such as lawmaker Andrey Gurulyov, warned there “might be nothing left of America.” However, such threats have long been standard on Russian TV. 
• A source familiar with the Russian leadership’s thinking told The Bell that within the Kremlin the mood behind closed doors is very much that “NATO has gone to war with us” and they are proceeding from that basis. At the very least, Russia will step up its strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, as well as on government agencies. But there could be more radical options, The Bell’s source suggested.
• Russia was already escalating its aerial attacks even before news came from Washington. Through Saturday night and into Sunday morning, Russian forces launched one of their largest mass missile and drone assaults since last winter, targeting Ukraine’s electricity grid with 120 missiles and 90 drones. But that was not the end. Hours later a missile hit an apartment block in the city of Sumy, killing 12 people, and then on Monday, Russia launched a missile strike on a residential quarter of Odesa, killing another 10. Russia’s logic is clear — it’s trying to hit Ukraine as hard as possible to force it into negotiations that it hopes Donald Trump will broker.

Why the world should care

The two months before Trump’s inauguration will be tough for Ukraine and anxious for the rest of the world. Russia will seek to raise the stakes as much as possible ahead of any talks in order to sap Kyiv’s morale and advance its own hardline demands. It’s hard to say at this stage how serious the latest Russian threats about a response are.