By Dmitry Trenin, Profil, 12/18/24 (Translated by karlof1)
There is a rule: in peacetime, prepare for war, and in wartime, think about organizing peace. Now, while the conflict in Ukraine is not over, our thoughts are about victory. We are sure it will come. But it is time now to start thinking about the world that will follow. Paraphrasing Stalin’s famous statement, we can say: Bandera come and go, but the Ukrainian people remain.
Ukraine within the borders of December 31, 1991 has not existed for a long time. Part of the territories of the former Ukrainian SSR—Crimea, Donbass and Novorossiya—became part of the Russian Federation through referendums. It is possible that over time, some other regions will follow this path. Perhaps Odessa with Nikolaev, perhaps Kharkov with Dnepropetrovsk. Perhaps something else. But definitely not all. It is worth attaching only what can be really integrated and, if necessary, retained.
Some part of today’s Ukrainian territories will remain outside the Russian Federation. What will this Ukraine be like? The future of Russia depends on the answer to this question–-and in fact it is a very serious challenge. In the recent example of Syria, we received a clear confirmation of the military maxim of the great Alexander Suvorov: an undercut forest grows.
In civilizational, cultural, historical, and ethnic relations, Ukraine–-or at least most of it–-is an integral part of the Russian world. However, today this territory is at the mercy of forces desperately fighting the Russian world. It is impossible not to notice that even these forces themselves and the West standing behind them are fighting us with the hands, in fact, of Russian people fighting in the Russian way— stubbornly, inventively and evilly, despite huge losses.
The liberation mission of Russia–-its historical task–-does not end with the liberation of the cities and villages of Donbass and Novorossiya. It is aimed at liberating the whole of Ukraine from the anti-Russian Bandera regime, its neo-Nazi ideology, as well as from the influence of external forces hostile to the Russian world.
Like any other country, Ukraine belongs first and foremost to the people living on its territory. Russia, however, is closely and inextricably linked with this people and the land on which they live. After the end of the war, we owe it to ourselves, first of all, to help our neighbors build a new Ukraine–-initially a reconciled and then a peaceful neighbor, in the medium term–-a partner, and in the long term–-an ally.
Russia has historical experience in turning military opponents into friends or reliable fellow citizens. Suffice it to recall the revival of the Chechen Republic, which became a stronghold of stability in the North Caucasus; the alliance of former mujahideen with the Afghan “northern alliance” or the example of the GDR and a number of other satellite countries of Nazi Germany after World War II.
In the Russian expert community, there are different visions of post-war Ukraine.
The most radical option is for Russia to take control of the entire territory of Ukraine, up to Lviv, and access to the borders with NATO countries. Logically, this military success is followed by a political continuation–-the second “reunification of Ukraine with Russia”, which actually means the abolition of Ukrainian statehood. We will not discuss the realism of such an outcome of the NWO [SMO] from a military point of view. But we can say for sure: there are reasonable doubts about the ability to keep all of Ukraine under Moscow’s control and then integrate it entirely into the Russian Federation, as well as about the material cost for Russia of such a solution to the issue.
The opposite, least acceptable and most dangerous option for us is an embittered Bandera pro-Western Ukraine with slightly reduced borders compared to 2022. It is a fiercely anti-Russian state, an instrument of the West to constantly put pressure on Russia and provoke it, and then, at an opportune moment, a springboard for a new war for the “liberation of the occupied territories.” The main idea of this “undefeated” Ukraine will be revenge. Such an option should be completely excluded.
There is one option—a weakened Ukraine, a kind of large “gulyai-pole”, an entity abandoned by the West as unnecessary and dependent on Russia. In this incarnation of the Makhnovshchina, the various interest groups and criminal gangs will fight each other incessantly and tirelessly. It is assumed that Moscow will be able, by manipulating local elements, to turn such a Ukraine into a safe buffer for Russia in the southwestern direction. In this option, two things are doubtful. First, the fact that the West will “retreat” from the Ukrainian “gulyai-pole” and will not use its “heroes” to fight Russia, which will not stop after the end of hostilities in Ukraine. Secondly, that Moscow will be able to control this Makhnovshchina.
The best and not entirely fantastic option for us would be to oust anti-Russian, revanchist elements to the western regions of Ukraine. There they could create their own “free Ukraine” under the protectorate of the West or become a zone of influence of neighboring states—Poland, Hungary and Romania. The West could console itself with the fact that part of the country has avoided falling under Moscow’s control, and speculate that Western Ukraine, consisting of five or seven regions, will become an analogue of the Federal Republic of Germany during the Cold War. Let [Пусть]. It is not scary to give up what is not only expensive for us, but also dangerous to have. The mistake of Stalin, who annexed Galicia and Volhynia and thereby infected Soviet Ukraine with the virus of nationalism, cannot be repeated.
The main thing is that “Galicia”, taking into account all possible assistance to it from the West, does not pose a danger to Russia, that is, it would have a subcritical mass. The rest of Ukraine–-isolated from the hotbed of ultranationalism, and without regions that have already joined or may yet join the Russian Federation–-would become a new sovereign Ukrainian state. At the same time, by a state that is not under our occupation. It makes sense to offer such a prospect to the Ukrainians, explaining how beneficial it is to them.
The new Ukraine would be much more Ukrainian than the Ukrainian SSR or even Ukraine without Crimea and the four regions that voted to join Russia in 2022. The Ukrainian economy would gain access to the market of Russia and the EAEU countries. At the same time, the New Ukraine would be rigidly separated from the alien Bandera element, which was historically formed in isolation from Russia and on an anti-Russian basis. Kiev would have freed itself from those who flooded and desecrated it after the Maidan coup of 2014.
A new Ukraine as a state and society would be created on a broad all-Russian–-or, if you like, East Slavic–-basis. Such a Ukraine would inherit Kievan Rus and the Zaporozhian Cossacks; it would be proud of the contribution of its people to the strengthening and prosperity of the Russian Tsardom and the Russian Empire, as well as the Soviet Union, of which the Little Russian lands were an important component. Finally, it would embody the historical dream of several generations of Ukrainians about independence.
In the realities of the modern world, the true sovereignty of Ukraine–-as well as other neighboring states of the former USSR–-is possible only in conditions of close cooperation with Russia. At the same time, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church would remain the spiritual basis of society.
The “New Ukraine” project does not have to wait for Victory Day. You can start planning now. There are many Ukrainians in Russia who are not indifferent to the fate of their homeland. Many of them have the necessary competencies to join the work on state, economic and cultural building of the future Ukrainian statehood. At the same time, it should be emphasized that this work is aimed precisely at creating a new statehood, and not at restoring the Ukraine that was swept away by the Maidan almost 11 years ago.
We are not talking only about those who have moved. After our victory, there is work to be done to separate war criminals, criminal figures, ideological opponents and incorrigible Russophobes from the bulk of the population of Ukraine. From its ranks, the New Ukraine could attract patriots–-officers, public and cultural figures, businessmen—who are ready to rebuild their country in cooperation with Russia. We, in turn, will have to give these people an initial credit of trust and treat their “Ukrainianness” with respect. They are not “khokhly”, “ukrops” who speak “language”, and not just neighbors, but a part of the Russian world that we have to return. Not for their sake, but first of all for the sake of ourselves, our safe (in this direction) future.
In our work with the Ukrainians, it is already necessary to emphasize that for the West, Ukraine and its population are only a tool, an expendable material in weakening Russia. That for the West, Ukrainians (who were massively “discovered” there only three years ago) are strangers, second- or third-class people. That the wonderful Ukrainian folk values are destined to be buried under the avalanche of Western mass culture and all the latest innovations in the field of gender policy. That the Ukrainian language is experiencing increasing pressure from English. That Ukrainian wealth – black soil, subsoil – was bought up by American and Western companies and in fact for the most part no longer belongs to Ukraine. That a hypothetical attempt by Ukraine to protect its identity will be met with the same wave of arrogant pressure from the West as the actions of the current Georgian authorities.
So, to sum up: we need to be ready for war, but we also need to be ready for peace. We will expect that all the goals of the NWO will be achieved, and hope at least for the optimal option for ending the war described above. In other words, for our victory. But this will be a victory, first of all, over the attempt of the collective West to restrain our development and weaken us. This will be a victory over the Ukrainian Bandera followers—enemies of both Russians and Ukrainians. For ordinary citizens of the New Ukraine, the day of our victory will be the day of their liberation. This was the name of Victory Day in the GDR.