Russia Matters, 2/21/25

1. A war of words erupted between Trump and Zelenskyy this week, reportedly bringing the U.S. leader to the verge of withdrawing American military support from Ukraine, according to Axios. It started in earnest with Zelenskyy rejecting on Feb. 15 the initial draft of the Trump team’s proposal for America’s access to Ukrainian mineral rights,¹ according to Axios. Zelenskyy then criticized the negotiations Trump’s top advisers held with their Russian counterparts on Feb. 18 in Saudi Arabia. Trump responded to this criticism by lashing out against Zelenskyy, but the latter chose to escalate even further, declaring on Feb. 19 that Trump “lives in a disinformation space.” The U.S. leader fired back, warning his Ukrainian counterpart to move quickly to secure peace or risk losing his country, while also describing Zelenskyy as a “dictator without elections,” whose approval rating supposedly has fallen to “four percent.”² Trump also claimed that Kyiv was to blame for the war while his envoys at a G-7 summit this week opposed calling Russia the aggressor in a joint statement. However, rather than “tone in down,” as suggested by Trump’s NSA Waltz, Zelenskyy fired back. Pointing to polling from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, which in February found that 57% of Ukrainians trusted their president, a defiant Zelenskyy said on Feb, 19: “So if anyone wants to replace me right now, that will not work.”³ The spat didn’t prevent Trump’s team from revising and resubmitting the minerals deal to Zelenskyy on Feb. 21, which Ukrainian officials were described as “working on” that same day. Various reports estimate that Ukraine has mineral deposits worth $10-$11 trillion, according to Bloomberg and British economist Adam Tooze. It is unclear, however, how realistic these estimates are, given that the total value of all mineral reserves in much larger Russia⁴ was estimated to be about $1.44 trillion, according to a February 2023 report by the U.S. Geological Survey.* 
2. Senior American and Russian officials agreed on Feb. 18 to establish high-level teams to work toward ending the war in Ukraine and finding a path toward normalizing relations, in the most extensive bilateral negotiations in more than three years, according to NYT. After the 4.5 hours of talks, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio described a three-step plan for what the U.S. and Russia planned to do next, NYT reported. First, Rubio said, both countries would negotiate how to remove restrictions placed on each other’s embassies in Moscow and Washington. In addition, he said, the U.S. would engage with Russia about “parameters of what an end” to the Ukraine war would look like. “There’s going to be engagement and consultation with Ukraine, with our partners in Europe and others,” Rubio was quoted by NYT as saying. And finally, he said, Russia and the U.S. would explore new “historic” partnerships, both in geopolitics and in business. On Feb. 19, Putin praised the past talks, describing them as “the first step to resume work across a variety of areas of mutual interest, including the Middle East.” “We also have other matters to consider such as the economy, and our joint activities on global energy markets.” “We, for example, [also] have the renewal of START-3 on the table,” he said. Both Moscow and Washington said this week that Trump and Putin may meet later this month.
3. The U.S. signaled that sanctions relief for Russia could be on the table in talks over the war in Ukraine, Bloomberg reported. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Feb. 20 that the U.S. is prepared to either ramp up or take down penalties based on the Kremlin’s willingness to negotiate. Meanwhile, Putin has ordered his cabinet to prepare for the return of Western companies, according to FT. He also referred to “the economy, and our joint activities on global energy markets” when describing on Feb. 19 the agenda of his interactions with Trump. A handful of U.S. companies have expressed tentative interest in resuming their Russian operations, and France’s Renault would not rule out a return to Russia either, according to FT.
4. Russia gained 190 square miles of Ukraine’s territory (about 2 Martha’s Vineyard islands) in the past month, according to the Feb. 19, 2025, issue of RM’s Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. The monthly rate of the Russian advance may have slowed down recently, but it is still nearly five times higher this winter than last, according to the card. Moreover, Russian troops are now less than three miles from the borders of Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region, “marking the fifth region to face partial Russian occupation and expanding Moscow’s control over the war-torn country,” according to NYT. As of the afternoon of Feb. 21, the DeepState map showed Russian forces approaching the Donetsk region’s Udachne settlement, which is less than 3 miles on a straight line from this region’s border with the Dnipropetrovsk region.
5. Ukraine and Russia are likely to reach a ceasefire in 2025, according to Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence.
6. Russia, which has seen its air base in Syria attacked by UAVs this week, will likely keep a reduced military presence in Syria, according to Bloomberg.