Russia Matters, 2/18/25

1. Senior American and Russian officials agreed on Feb. 18 to establish high-level teams to work toward ending the war in Ukraine and finding a path toward normalizing relations, in the most extensive bilateral negotiations in more than three years, according to NYT. After the 4.5 hours of talks, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio described a three-step plan for what the U.S. and Russia planned to do next, NYT reported. First, he said, both countries would negotiate how to remove restrictions placed on each other’s embassies in Moscow and Washington. In addition, he said, the U.S. would engage with Russia about “parameters of what an end” to the Ukraine war would look like. “There’s going to be engagement and consultation with Ukraine, with our partners in Europe and others,” Rubio was quoted by NYT as saying. And finally, he said, Russia and the U.S. would explore new “historic” partnerships, both in geopolitics and in business.¹
   1. After the talks, Trump’s national security adviser Waltz suggested Ukraine’s government would have a say, calling it “common sense” that “if you’re going to bring both sides together, you have to talk to both sides,” according to CBS. “We are absolutely talking to both sides,” Waltz said.
   2. After the talks, Trump’s envoy Witkoff said the U.S has consulted Zelenskyy and Macron, and that the EU was “going to have to be at the table at some point because they have sanctions as well that have been imposed.” But the Russian foreign ministry ruled out a role for Europe in the Ukraine talks and demanded NATO rescind an open-ended 2008 invitation to Kyiv, as it said Moscow was “categorically opposed” to a European peacekeeping deployment, NYT reported.
   3. After the talks Ushakov, Putin’s foreign policy adviser, said the discussions were “not bad,” NYT reported. Ushakov said the exact date of the meeting between Putin and Trump has not yet been determined, but it is unlikely to be next week, according to TASS.
   4. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that the parties “not only listened, but heard each other,” according to Republic.ru. Lavrov also announced that Russia-U.S. consultations on Ukraine would now be held regularly. Lavrov also said  that he was unaware of a reported U.S. peace proposal for Ukraine that includes agreeing to a ceasefire, holding elections and signing a final peace deal. The so-called “three-stage peace plan” was allegedly proposed by both the United States and Russia, Fox News White House correspondent Jacqui Heinrich reported, citing unnamed foreign diplomatic sources.
   5. The Russian Foreign Ministry said: “agreements were reached on establishing a dialogue to agree on ways to resume cooperation in the economy, including energy, space and other areas of mutual interest.” “The parties agreed to resume communication channels on other international issues, taking into account the special responsibility of Russia and the United States in matters of peace and security as nuclear powers,” the ministry said.
   6. Russian deputy foreign minister Grushko said the Kremlin was “categorically opposed” to European troops deploying to Ukraine “no matter what their role is.” He added that such a move would be “a step towards escalation,” according to FT.
   7. Kremlin spokesman Peskov said any deal should “take into account the possibility of disputing Zelenskyy’s legitimacy” after the Ukrainian president’s term expired last year, according to FT.
   8. Pro-government Russian political analyst Markov claimed that the talks produced “no results” and that “all assessments are abstract,” according to Republic.ru. He noted that a Putin-Trump meeting has not been scheduled and that “it cannot yet be said that Russia and the U.S. are moving closer.”²
2. “A strong transatlantic relationship remains as critical today as it has for the past 75 years,” but “the way the transatlantic partners confront common challenges must change,” according to a newly-released report by the Belfer Center Task Force on Building a European Pillar within the Transatlantic Relationship, which is co-chaired by Ivo Daalder, Camille Grand and Daniela Schwarzer.³ “For Europe—and for NATO—the territorial defense of the continent will be the top priority for years to come,” the task force’s report, entitled “Transatlantic Bargain: The Case for Building a Strong European Pillar,” argues. “Under a new and sustainable transatlantic bargain, Europeans need to augment their defense capabilities and contributions significantly to take much greater responsibility for the defense of the continent.” As for the United States, it “needs to proactively help Europe build a strong and capable European pillar both by advocating better burden sharing and facilitating a shift in responsibilities to Europe, and reducing roadblocks to European defense investment and collaboration with U.S. defense industry,” according to the report, which was published as the Munich Security Conference took place. One of MSC’s Feb. 15 panels featured Ian Bremmer, Fiona Hill, Dmytro Kuleba, Meghan O’Sullivan and David Sanger; and focused on “Adversarial Alignment.” See a summary of this panel’s analysis and recommendations below.*
3. “If Europe wants to be at the negotiating table rather than being on the menu, it is time to act with unity and clarity, rather than continuing to act surprised, divided and embarrassed,” Camile Grant writes in a commentary for ECFR. First, Europeans need to make clear that their support for Ukraine is not conditioned on continued U.S. support and can be increased.⁴ Second, Europeans need to clarify what they are ready to offer in terms of security guarantees, such as deployment of troops to Ukraine. Finally, “Putin, who probably celebrates his new status as a special negotiation partner of Washington, has not shown any signs of an openness to compromise or closing a deal soon. This creates an opportunity for Europe to shape—even partially—the terms of the deal,” according to Grand.⁵

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Summary of February 18th Meeting of American and Russian Diplomats in Saudi Arabia

By Brian McDonald, Twitter, 2/18/25

Lavrov & Rubio agree to create negotiation groups on Ukraine and a mechanism to ease tensions in US-Russia relations (Reuters).

🕊️ Three-stage peace plan on the table: Ceasefire ➡️ Elections in Ukraine ➡️ Final agreement (Fox News).

💼 Economic ties back on the agenda – Russia & US agree to cooperate on investment & energy prices post-settlement (Reuters).

🏛️ Embassy staffing to be restored in Moscow & Washington – a major thawing move (Rubio).

📢 State Dept: One meeting won’t solve Ukraine, but Riyadh was an “important step forward.”

💬 Zelensky fumes – says talks without Kyiv are just bilateral Russia-US agreements, not peace talks.

🔮 Trump & Putin both believe Zelensky’s re-election chances are slim (Fox News).