Russia Matters, 4/25/25
- Trump wrote on Truth Social on April 20, 2025 that he hoped Russia and Ukraine “will make a deal this week,” and then told Time on April 22 that he thinks such a deal is possible with Zelensky remaining in power. Trump also told Time that “Crimea will stay with Russia” and that “I don’t think they [Ukrainians] will ever be able to join NATO.” The next day saw Trump lash out at Zelenskyy’s refusal to recognize the loss of Crimea, arguing that that “Crimea was lost years ago,” claiming that “nobody is asking Zelensky to recognize Crimea as Russian territory,” according to Reuters. In his turn Putin has reportedly offered to halt his invasion across the current front line and said he was open to direct talks with Kyiv on a peace deal, according to FT and NYT. Putin stated his readiness for direct talks prior to hosting Steve Witkoff for the fourth time to discuss the direct talks. The two had a 3-hour conversation in the Kremlin on April 25 in what “allowed Russia and the United States to further bring their positions closer together, not only on Ukraine but also on a number of other international issues,” according to ,Putin’s foreign policy advisor Yuri Ushakov. Shortly after the Moscow meeting ended, Trump said he heard that his envoy and Putin had “a pretty good meeting,” according to Reuters.
- Ukrainian and European officials pushed back this week against some U.S. proposals on how to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, making counterproposals on issues from territory to sanctions, according to the full texts of the proposals seen by Reuters. The sets of proposals from talks between U.S., European and Ukrainian officials in Paris on April 17 and in London on April 23 laid bare the inner workings of the shuttle diplomacy under way as Donald Trump seeks a quick end to the war, Reuters reported. See RM’s comparison of the two proposals in Table 1 below:
Table 1
| The U.S. proposal for Russian-Ukrainianpeace discussed by the high-ranking U.S., European and Ukrainian officials on April 17 in Paris. | The European-Ukrainian proposal for Russian-Ukrainian peace discussed by the lower-level U.S. officials with European and Ukrainian officials on April 23 in London. |
| The U.S. proposal calls for a “de jure” U.S. recognition of Russian control in Crimea plus “de-facto recognition” of the Russia’s occupation of nearly all of Luhansk oblast and the occupied portions of Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. (Reuters, 04.25.25, Axios, 04.23.25) | The Ukrainian-European proposal defers detailed discussion about territory until after a ceasefire is concluded, with no mention in the document of recognizing Russian control over any Ukrainian territory. (Reuters, 04.25.25) |
| The U.S. proposal calls for the return of the small part of Kharkiv oblast Russia has occupied. It also calls for the unimpeded passage of the Dnieper River, which runs along the front line in parts of southern Ukraine.(Axios, 04.23.25) | We could not find any language in descriptionsof the proposal, but assume that a European-Ukrainian proposal would welcome return of Ukrainian territory to Kyiv’s control. |
| On Ukraine’s long-term security, the U.S. proposal states Ukraine will have a “robust security guarantee” with European and other friendly states acting as guarantors. It gives no further detail on this but says Kyiv will not seek to join NATO. (Reuters, 04.25.25, Axios, 04.23.25) | The Ukrainian-European proposal says there will be no limits on Ukrainian forces and no restrictions on Ukraine’s allies stationing their military forces on Ukrainian soil — a provision likely to irk Moscow. It proposes robust security guarantees for Kyiv including from the United States with an “Article 5-like agreement,” a reference to NATO’s mutual defense clause. (Reuters, 04.25.25) |
| The U.S. proposal notes that Ukraine could become part of the European Union. (Axios, 04.23.25) | We could not find any language in descriptionsof the Ukrainian-European proposal, but assume that a European-Ukrainian proposal would reaffirm Ukraine’s path to EU. |
| The U.S. proposal says that sanctions in place on Russia since its 2014 annexation of Crimea will be removed as part of the deal under discussion. (Reuters, 04.25.25) | The Ukrainian-European proposal says that “US sanctions imposed on Russia since 2014 may be subject to gradual easing after a sustainable peace is achieved” and that they can be re-instated if Russia breaches the terms of the peace deal. (Reuters, 04.25.25) |
| The U.S. proposal says Ukraine will be compensated financially, without giving the source of the money. (Reuters, 04.25.25, Axios, 04.23.25) | The Ukrainian-European proposal proposes Ukraine receives financial compensation for damage inflicted in the war from Russian assets abroad that have been frozen (Reuters, 04.25.25) |
| The U.S. proposal calls for Russia’s enhanced economic cooperation with the U.S., particularly in the energy and industrial sectors. (Axios, 04.23.25) | We could not find any language in descriptionsof the Ukrainian-European proposal, but assume it won’t contain such a call. |
| The U.S. proposal calls for he Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to considered as Ukrainian territory but operated by the U.S. (Axios, 04.22.25) | We could not find any language in descriptionsof the Ukrainian-European proposal, but recall that Russia has in the recent past rejected offers of U.S. operation of this NPP. |
- In the past month (March 25–April 22, 2025), Russia gained 166 square miles. (Area equivalent to about 1 ½ Nantucket island), according to the April 23, 2025 issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card . In the past week Russia gained 40 square miles (the equivalent of about 2 Manhattan islands)—a slow down as compared to the previous week’s 50 square miles in the war, which “Ukraine’s ex-chief commander Valerii Zaluzhnyi has described as being in a “stupor.” According to Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group’s map, as of April 25, 2025, Russian forces occupied a total 112,643 square kilometers of Ukrainian land (43,491 square miles), which constituted 18.7% of Ukrainian territory. In Russia’s Kursk region, Ukraine gave up 14 square miles of control: down to only 5 square miles; nearly concluding its complete withdrawal from Russia.
- Britain is likely to abandon plans to send thousands of troops to protect Ukraine because the risks are deemed “too high,” according to The Times of London. Britain and Europe would no longer have a ground force guarding key cities, ports and nuclear power plants to secure the peace, this newspaper reported. Instead, the focus for a security commitment to Ukraine would be on the reconstitution and rearmament of Kyiv’s army, with protection from the air and sea, according to the Times story which appeared one day before Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu warned in an interview with TASS deployment of NATO troops in what this Russian state news agency described as “new Russian territories still controlled by Ukraine” can trigger World War III.
- In its revised outlook IMF expects Russia’s GDP growth to exceed that of “Advanced Economies” in 2025 (1.5% vs 1.4%), but this growth rate is significantly slower than that of “Emerging Market and Developing Economies,” (3.7%) and it will slow down to 0.9% in 2026.
Nice catch, Natylie. A good use of the table layout.