Russia Matters, 5/30/25

1. Vladimir Putin’s conditions for ending the war in Ukraine include a demand that Western leaders pledge in writing to stop enlarging NATO eastward and lift a chunk of sanctions on Russia, three Russian sources with knowledge of the negotiations told Reuters. Asked by ABC on May 29 about the demand on non-enlargement, U.S. presidential envoy Keith Kellogg said: “It’s a fair concern.” “We’ve said that to us, Ukraine coming into NATO is not on the table, and we’re not the only country that says that—you know I could probably give you four other countries in NATO and it takes 32 of the 32 to allow you to come in to NATO,” Kellogg said. Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov lauded Kellogg’s comments, saying they came as a “result of Russia-U.S. talks held behind closed doors,” according to The New York Times.
2. Russian and Ukrainian officials continued to lock horns into the afternoon hours of May 30 on whether Moscow has to send its memorandum detailing its conditions for peace to Kyiv ahead of June 2 for the two warring sides to sit down for a second round of talks in Istanbul on that date. Russia’s top diplomat Sergei Lavrov insisted that the Russian side would present the memorandum in Istanbul on June 2, Washington Post reported May 28. The Ukrainians, meanwhile, said they had already sent their memorandum to Russia and that Russia should reciprocate immediately. According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, however, Russia has not received a copy of Ukraine’s memorandum, ISW reported. In a May 29 interview with ABC, Kellogg confirmed that the United States had received Ukraine’s memorandum, but was still waiting on Russia’s, according to The New York Times. He said the next step after the June 2 talks could be a trilateral meeting with Putin and Trump, which is something that Volodymyr Zelenskyy also proposed this week.
3. In the past week, Russian forces gained 52 square miles of Ukrainian territory (just over 2 Manhattan islands), a slight decrease in the rate of advance from the previous week, according to the May 28, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. The past week saw Russian forces capture four of the Sumy region’s villages, Novenke, Basivka, Veselivka and Zhuravka, according to this eastern Ukrainian province’s governor, Oleh Hryhorov, in remarks reported May 27. Then on May 28, Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group reported in its interactive map that the Russian armed forces occupied Zelene Pole in the neighboring Donetsk region. On May 29, DeepState reported that the Russian armed forces had occupied Romanivka and Troitske. In May, Russian armed forces have more than doubled the area that they seized in April, capturing an average of 5.5 square miles each day amid Kyiv’s claims of Russia’s pending summer offensive in the east, according to data provided by DeepState and reported by The New York Times. Russian forces are advancing on Ukrainian battlefields at the fastest pace this year, according to this newspaper.  If the pace of Russia’s advance so far this year, as estimated by ISW for January–April 2025 and DeepState for Jan. 1–May 22, 2025, remains unchanged (which is highly unlikely, as such trends are rarely linear), it would take Russia 140–180 years to capture the remaining 80+% of Ukraine’s territory.*
4. Russia’s aerial attacks against Ukraine in the past week have shattered some previous records, according to estimates by ISW that are based on data from the Ukrainian air force. Ukraine’s air force said May 25 that Russia had launched 69 ballistic and cruise missiles along with 298 attack drones. The air force spokesman, Yuriy Ihnat, said that it was the largest bombardment of the war in terms of the number of weapons used, according to The New York Times. Then, overnight on May 25–26, Russia fired what Kyiv said was the largest-ever drone barrage on Ukraine to date, including “355 Shahed-type drones” and nine cruise missiles. In between the attacks, Trump hit out at Putin “He has gone absolutely CRAZY!” the U.S. president wrote on May 25. On May 27, Trump warned that Putin is “playing with fire.”¹ While attacking Putin, Trump oscillated on whether he’d agree to impose new sanctions on Russia. On May 25, he said he was “absolutely” considering new sanctions against Russia. But on May 28, he said he’s holding off on new sanctions against Russia in order to preserve the chance for a deal to end the war in Ukraine.
5. The U.S.  has endorsed a Group of Seven communique adopted at the recent G-7 meeting in Canada, representing a significant change in the U.S. public position on the Russian-Ukrainian war. This past February alone saw U.S. either vote against condemnation of Russia for the Ukraine war or sign off on declarations only if the latter avoided assigning blame for the conflict on three occasions at international fora. First, on Feb. 21, 2025, the so-called Chair’s Summary of the First G-20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting had to be produced instead of a communique after top officials from the U.S. and several other countries skipped it and delegates remained far apart on key issues.² The summary said “there was agreement to support all efforts towards a just peace in Ukraine,” but it did not assign any blame for initiating the conflict. Then, on Feb. 24, 2025, the U.S. supported UNSC Resolution 2774 that mourned “the tragic loss of life throughout the Russian Federation-Ukraine conflict” and called for “a lasting peace between Ukraine and the Russian Federation,” but, again, assigned no blame to initiating the conflict. Finally, on Feb. 25, 2025, the U.S. voted against a UNGA resolution, which expressed “concern over “the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation,” and which demanded “that the Russian Federation immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces from the territory of Ukraine.” Such behavior at international fora has been consistent with the refusal by Trump and his top aides to blame Russia for the war. In contrast, however, the G-7 communique, which was adopted by G-7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors on May 22, had the following language: “We condemn Russia’s continued brutal war against Ukraine… The G-7 remains committed to unwavering support for Ukraine in defending its territorial integrity and right to exist, and its freedom, sovereignty and independence toward a just and durable peace.” Thus the signatories of the May 22, 2025, communique, including the U.S. representative, pointed the accusatory finger at Russia for initiating the war against Ukraine.