Russia Matters, 5/9/25

1. The U.S. and Europe are finalizing a proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine. If Russia refuses the proposal, it will trigger new jointly imposed sanctions on Russia, according to Reuters. “What could happen in the coming hours and days, there could be an announcement of a ceasefire either of 30 days or compartmentalized, which is still being discussed,” a French diplomatic source said May 9. A meeting of Ukraine’s closest allies is due to take place on May 10, where the U.S.-European proposal will be discussed. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Finnish President Alexander Stubb have both expressed optimism that a ceasefire agreement could be reached as soon as “this weekend,” according to RBC.ua. Russia supports the implementation of a 30-day ceasefire in the Ukraine conflict, but only with due consideration of “nuances” in the more than three-year-old war, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quoted as saying on May 9, Reuters reports.
2. Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping met in the Kremlin on May 8 for bilateral meetings, after which Putin said that Russia-China cooperation had reached its “highest level,” describing the relationship as an “unbreakable friendship,” according to the Washington Post. In a joint statement on “global strategic stability” published on the Kremlin website, they warned that “a critical mass of problems and challenges has accumulated in the strategic sphere, and the risk of nuclear conflict has increased.” Nuclear powers should maintain “constructive” relations to ensure international security, according to the document, which made no mention of Russia’s war in Ukraine, according to Bloomberg; however, the Chinese Foreign Ministry reported that Putin said Russia is ready to begin peace talks on Ukraine without preconditions and hopes for a just and lasting peace agreement. The joint statement also pledged to strengthen military cooperation and criticized Donald Trump’s proposal to develop an Iron Dome-like missile defense system, MT/AFP reports. “Both countries are conducting an independent and autonomous foreign policy, and are interested in forming a more just and democratic, multipolar world order,” Putin said after the talks concluded, Bloomberg reports. The Kremlin also announced that Putin will travel to China at the end of August and beginning of September.
3. Military aid to Ukraine from the U.S. and EU is reportedly set to increase in the coming months. On May 4, The New York Times reported that a Patriot air-defense system previously based in Israel will be sent to Ukraine after it is refurbished, and Western allies are also discussing the logistics of Germany or Greece giving another one. Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg, the U.S. State Department approved F-16 fighter-jet training and services for Ukraine worth up to $350 million, “signaling that the White House will keep supporting Kyiv in the fight against Russia,” Bloomberg reports. Additionally, on May 9, the EU pledged to allocate 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine’s defense industry, MT/AFP reports.
4. Despite the reverence for Ukraine’s war dead, they, too, have become an income stream for corrupt officials, the Wall Street Journal reports. Some funeral homes pay officials to win large contracts for transporting or burying dead troops, according to officials with knowledge of the transactions. Funeral homes overcharge councils for soldiers’ headstones and coffins and split the difference with officials, police say.
5. Two South American states this week sought closer ties with Russia, as Putin and his Venezuelan counterpart Nicolás Maduro signed a strategic partnership treaty and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva offered Putin wide-ranging cooperation on a variety of areas, MT/AFP reports. The strategic partnership with Venezuela is the latest in a series of alliances Russia has forged since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to MT/AFP, while Brazil’s Lula told Putin: “My visit today is aimed at strengthening the building of our strategic partnership,” according to a Russian-language readout. The closer ties between Venezuela, Brazil and Russia threaten a longstanding acknowledgment of South America as a U.S. sphere of interest.¹ Since taking office in January 2025, Trump has appeared to endorse a U.S. foreign policy that reanimates spheres of influence as a legitimate interest of great powers, of which he also counts Russia and China. Russia’s strengthened connections to these South American states may increase the friction between a Trump administration newly interested in acquiring, for example, Greenland, and a Russia potentially bent on re-establishing Ukraine and central Europe as its own sphere of influence.*
6. Putin on May 9 celebrated the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany “with a Red Square military parade designed to place Moscow at the vanguard of a rising, non-Western world order,” the New York Times reports. Putin was joined by more than 20 foreign leaders from countries that largely position themselves as neutral or hostile to the West, including the leaders of China and Brazil and North Korean generals. Servicemen from “friendly nations” also took part in the event, though no North Korean soldiers marched in the parade, according to MT/AFP. No senior American officials were known to be in attendance. 

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Read the transcript of Putin’s Victory Day speech here.

You can watch the Victory Day celebration below. YouTube link here. Unfortunately I have not yet been able to find a video that includes any English translation of Putin’s speech.