By Stephen Bryen, Asia Times, 7/18/23

Wagner troops are in Belarus training the army there. More Wagner troops are now in a convoy on their way to Belarus. A spokesperson for Wagner and one of its top leaders have released videos with essentially the same bottom line: they will defend the fatherland and support Russia’s military and civilian leaders.

Wagner’s troops are back and private military contractor appears to be positioning to play a strategic role for Russia and Belarus.

A new head for Wagner has been selected. He is Andrei Troshev, a highly decorated Russian army veteran, a colonel, 70 years old, who played a major role in Syria where he was directly involved in military operations. His nom de guerre is Grey Hair.

The cofounder and éminence grise of Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has disappeared.

On June 29th Russian President Vladimir Putin held a Kremlin meeting with about 30 Wagner commanders, including Prigozhin. (General Sergey Surovikin, another missing player, did not attend the June 29th meeting.)

This three hour-long meeting, according to the Kremlin, came with an offer from Putin. He is reported to have said that all of the Wagners “can gather in one place and continue to serve and nothing will change for them. They will be led by the same person who has been their real commander all this time.” That person, Putin said, is “Sedoy,” using the Russian word for Grey Hair.

In reply Prigozhin said, “No, the guys do not agree with this decision.”

Prigozhin’s reply effectively terminated his control of Wagner. After the meeting, on either June 4 or 5, Russian police and the FSB (Russia’s successor to the KGB) raided Prigozhin’s large estate in St Petersburg.

Different reports popped up, some saying that Prigozhin had gone to his mansion in St Petersburg in a limousine to pick up his money and guns that were seized previously. Another report had him reporting to FSB’s offices in St Petersburg, doing the same thing. But in both cases these were rumors and no eye witnesses came forward.

It seems, in retrospect, that these stories and others were designed to keep Prigozhin’s actual fate under wraps. 

The Prigozhin-led attack aimed at Moscow on June 24 was a near disaster for Putin. The Russian leader was moved out of Moscow as a security precaution. Loyal forces, including Chechens, presidential guards and police, were moved in to protect the Defense Ministry in Moscow, Prigozhin’s main target. 

Prigozhin apparently believed that key leaders in the army, aside from Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Chief of Staff General Valery Gerasimov, would support his takeover, purge the defense minister and chief of staff and put Prigozhin and, perhaps, Surovikin in charge of Russia’s armed forces.

Putin would be handed a fait accompli. Either he could accept the change or, in Prigozhin’s view, he would be replaced. Prigozhin saw himself as Russia’s power broker and, depending on how things turned out, perhaps Russia’s new President.

Putin, it seemed, also was unsure about the loyalty of the army. That uncertainty was no doubt prompted by concern over “General Armageddon,” Sergey Surovikin.

Surovikin, who served as a special consultant to Prigozhin and Wagner, was extremely angry with the army’s leadership. Surovikin had been commander in chief of Russia’s armed forces from October 8, 2022, until January, 2023, when he was replaced by Valery Gerasimov.

Surovikin was given the vague title of deputy to Gerasimov and, while formally keeping the job, became a special consultant to Prigozhin. Surovikin’s humiliation, dished out by the old guard in the Army, no doubt led him to back Prigozhin strongly. The two of them made their move after the Bakhmut victory.

On June 24, as Wagner forces moved toward Rostov on Don, Surovikin made a self-serving video claiming that the invasion was wrong and saying that the Wagner forces should return to their bases. There is a presumption that this video was made to avoid any future prosecution if the Prigozhin-led coup d’état failed.

In late June Surovikin’s daughter allegedly told Baza, a Telegram channel, that Surovikin was working from home and had not been detained. Subsequently, Surovikin’s wife reported that her husband had not come home.

According to the Wall Street Journal and other outlets, Surovikin was detained along with thirteen other army officers.

Disposition of Wagner forces

It is now known that some Wagner forces are in Belarus training regular army forces there.

Andrey Kartapolov, who chairs the Russian parliament’s defense committee, said: “It is clear that Wagner went to Belarus to train the Belarusian armed forces. There is such a place as the Suwalki Corridor. Should anything happen, we need this Suwalki Corridor very much. A strike force is ready to take this corridor in a matter of hours.”

Poland has been massing forces along the border with Belarus, causing alarm in Minsk and Moscow. Foreign advisors, including the British, are now serving as technical aides to Polish forces at the Belarus border, signaling to Russia that the real issue might be a NATO initiative to bail out Ukraine by attacking Belarus, forcing Russia to divide its forces.

The Suwalki Corridor is a 96 km strip of land that connects the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad to Belarus. While Kaliningrad can be supported by sea or by air, the land bridge is important to assure normal communications. There are both roadway and rail links. This land strip is Polish territory on one side, and Lithuanian on the other.

Last year the Lithuanians blocked shipments along this route, lifting the blockade after the Russians threatened serious consequences. The Corridor is also thought of as a weak link for NATO since it is the only NATO land connection to the Baltic states from Poland and from Europe. Other than airlift, this is the land route NATO needs to support these countries.

Indian Punchline reports that, in a weekend interview, the number two German party Christian Democratic Union’s “leading foreign and defense expert Roderich Kiesewetter (an ex-colonel who headed the Association of Reservists of the Bundeswehr from 2011 to 2016) suggested that if conditions warrant in the Ukraine situation, NATO should consider a move to ‘cut off Kaliningrad from the Russian supply lines. We see how Putin reacts when he is under pressure.’”

On July 6 the Russians flew a Tu-214SR and two Su-30M fighter jets in international waters near Kaliningrad and on to Russia. They were met by British Typhoons that flew from Estonia to shadow them. The Tu-214SR is known as the Russian “Doomsday” plane. It is a mobile command and control platform with an extensive multi-intelligence payload. (See TASS photo below.)

The Tu-214SR was likely in the area reporting on Polish and NATO operations close to Belarus and Kaliningrad. The Russians regard Kaliningrad as having great strategic importance and are sensitive about developments that may threaten the enclave.

The US position on these developments is not known, but what is clear is that Ukraine is now taking heavy losses and may be on the cusp of losing the war with Russia.

There have been a number of negative reports coming from the Pentagon including Ukrainian Chief of Staff Valerii Zaluzhny, trying to rethink the failed Ukrainian offensive. 

Africa

It appears that the deployment of Wagner forces in Africa is being normalized. Around 200 Wagner troops, in effect a normal rotation, have now arrived in the Central African Republic. They were flown there by COSI ( Community of Officers for International Security), a Wagner affiliate, on military helicopters. Earlier reports that there was a purge of Wagner forces in Africa appear to have been wrong and confused a force rotation with a purge.

Strategic Issues

The Ukraine war is part of a proxy battle between NATO and Russia. While there are indeed subsidiary issues important to the main combatants, for example the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine, NATO built up Ukraine’s forces before the Russian invasion to have sufficient force to take back key territories in the Donbas and Crimea. The NATO buildup was part of a plan to bring Ukraine into NATO and strategically isolate Russia.

The Russians countered the NATO plan, forcing the issue of the Ukrainian army buildup by openly invading Ukrainian territory. But before Russia sent its forces over the border, the Russians tried to engage Washington and NATO in a diplomatic process aimed at sorting out Russia-NATO and Russia-US issues. The effort took its most mature form in December, 2021, but it failed as both Washington and NATO refused the Russian initiative.

The issue of bringing Ukraine into NATO is still unresolved, even after the latest NATO summit in Vilnius. The Summit itself had hopes of declaring victory in Ukraine and even foresaw the overthrow of the Russian government. There were secret talks with key Russian figures, including Prigozhin.

But the Prigozhin coup failed and the Russians successfully fended off the long-awaited Ukrainian offensive. Ukraine suffered very high casualties and the initial loss of at least 20% of the Western equipment sent there to win the fight. Systems such as the German Leopard tank and the American Bradley infantry fighting vehicle were unsuccessful and an embarrassment.

Worse than that, the battle (still ongoing) revealed that systems and tactics designed to protect NATO from Russia were inadequate and based on a number of erroneous assumptions about war fighting.

It is far from clear that any gambit to try and save Ukraine by widening the war to Belarus would succeed, and doing so could put Europe into a general war on its territory. NATO is not prepared for war now. The failures in Ukraine amply illustrate that.

While it may be true that NATO can muster superior airpower, it would have to fly against effective Russian air defense systems and Russian fighter aircraft. But the big war would be on the ground, and NATO can’t fight that war now, possibly never can.

Will Washington use its proxy, Poland, to attack Belarus to try and save Ukraine? 

Wagner forces are now risen from the ashes and Prigozhin and Surovikin are gone. If the chairman of the Duma’s Defense Committee is right, those forces are prepared to take the Suwalki corridor in case Poland starts a war with Belarus.

The Bell, 7/17/23

President Vladimir Putin signed a decree that transferred the shares of foreign shareholders to the “temporary control” of Rosimushchestvo, the agency responsible for state property. The decree affects the Baltika brewery, which is 100% owned by Denmark’s Carlsberg, and dairy firm Danone Rossiya, which is owned by France’s Danone. In effect, the state has appropriated the assets of foreign investors who have poured billions of dollars into the Russian eonomy over the years. Danone Rossiya and Baltika are important players on the Russian consumer market. Danone is Russia’s biggest diary producer and Baltika is the second-largest brewery. Danone first started producing its branded products in Russian factories in 1994, and opened its own plant in the country in 2000. By 2022, the French company owned 13 businesses in the country, employing 100,000 staff.  Carlsberg became a key player in the Russian beer market in 2000 when it partnered with Norway’s Orka to acquire a 50% stake in Baltika. In 2008 the Danes increased their share in Baltika to 100%. From 1996 to 2020, Baltika was consistently the leading beer brand in Russia. The decree might come as a surprise to Carlsberg: three weeks ago the company  announced that it found a buyer for its Russian assets (although the buyer’s identity was never publicized). However, it’s currently impossible to sell Russian subsidiaries of foreign companies without the permission of a special government commission. Carlsberg’s press service admitted that it was awaiting that permit. In February 2023, media reports said Danone planned to transfer control over its assets to new investors. However, there were never any reports that new investors had been found.“ Transfer to temporary control” is de facto nationalization. This mechanism was introduced at the end of April and was first applied to two major foreign investors in the Russian electricity market: Germany’s Uniper and Finland’s Fortum. The day after Putin’s decree was published, the management of both companies’ Russian subsidiaries were replaced with individuals from Rosneft boss Igor Sechin’s circle. This week Fortum announced that it was filing a multi-billion-euro compensation claim to international arbitration. Why the world should care: In reality, nationalization happened some time ago, and it fell upon everyone at once. Last fall, Putin banned foreign companies from selling Russian assets without the government’s permission. If you cannot sell your business when you choose, it is no longer your business.

Inflation gains momentum Russia’s Central Bank expects prices to rise. But just a month ago, Putin was hailing the country’s low inflation rates compared to the rest of the world. At the start of the summer, Putin boasted of how inflation in Russia was approaching record lows and was even less than in many Western countries at 2.9%. However, with the rapid fall in the ruble and high levels of consumer demand, the Central Bank is warning of price rises to come. According to the Central Bank’s latest figures, price rises over the past 12 months reached 6.4%. Since the start of this year alone, they are up 3.25%. The bank’s analysts anticipate that the coming months will see annual inflation rates getting higher. Taking into account current monetary policies, the rate will be 4.5-6.5% this year. The weakening ruble’s knock-on effects are currently less noticeable than usual, the Bank warned. There are exceptions for specific goods and services where demand remains high (cars, foreign tourism). As demand grows and existing stocks deplete, the combined impact of ruble depreciation may have a greater impact on prices, the Bank’s analysts warned. Inflation was also boosted by labor shortages, wage increases outstripping productivity and consumers choosing to spend rather than save, which encourages manufactures to hike prices. The Central Bank published fresh data on inflation a week before its next meeting to discuss the base interest rate, which has held steady at 7.5% since September 2022. Now, Russian analysts predict a 50bp increase.  Why the world should care: Official inflation rates in Russia have been low all year, close to the Central Bank’s 4% target. However, factors such as ruble depreciation, increased demand, depleted stocks of imported goods indicate that inflation is set to increase. This will compel Russia’s Central Bank to pursue a stricter monetary policy.

By Andrew Korybko, Substack, 7/24/23

Russia carried out a surgical strike early Monday morning against targets in the town of Reni on the Ukrainian side of the Danube River near the tri-border with Moldova and Romania. This video alleges to show one of the explosions at its port while this image purports to be of a grain warehouse that was supposedly destroyed in the aftermath. It can’t be ruled out that military and/or terrorist assets were hidden there, however, since Russia insists that it doesn’t strike purely civilian infrastructure.

In any case, Monday morning’s surgical strike was very important since it sent several messages that Russia’s opponents would do well to heed. For starters, Reni is located on the other side of the Danube from NATO-member Romania, which demonstrated that Russia will hit targets anywhere in Ukraine and can do so with maximum precision. Those military and/or terrorist assets based on the literal border of that bloc but just outside of Article 5’s jurisdiction can no longer take their security for granted. 

The second message is that Russia is serious about cracking down on those threats to its security that were previously untouchable due to Kiev exploiting the grain deal to protect some of its aforesaid assets. Russia remained committed to that agreement in spite of that since it sincerely expected that the West would eventually remove those sanctions that impeded its agricultural exports. Since that didn’t happen and Russia therefore declined to extend the deal, Kiev’s selfsame assets are now fair game.

Third, carrying out a surgical strike on Reni proved that Russia had actionable intelligence regarding the Danube’s role in Kiev’s military logistical network, which many observers have suspected for a while. Related targets were previously untouchable for the abovementioned reason, but that’s no longer the case now that the grain deal expired. Accordingly, it can be expected that this won’t be the last surgical strike on the Danube, though it of course can’t be known when the next ones will occur.

The fourth message is that Russia now knows that NATO won’t extend its air defense umbrella over any part of Ukraine after no effort was made to stop its surgical strike in Reni on the Romanian border. The bloc either didn’t see the missiles approaching their air defense zone or detected them but declined to attempt an interception in order for Russia not to think they’re ready to get directly involved in this proxy war. Either way, NATO looks weak and Russia thus feels emboldened to continue striking near its borders.

And finally, this successful strike signifies that no part of Kiev’s military logistical network is safe, which could lead to Moscow’s edge in the NATO-Russian “race of logistics”/“war of attrition” growing even larger if it keeps up the tempo of these attacks against its opponent’s previously untouchable assets. In that event, peace talks might resume earlier than many expect if this accelerates the erosion of Ukraine’s military capabilities and thus forces its patrons to move up their timeline for freezing the conflict.

With these five messages in mind, there’s no doubt that Russia’s surgical strike against military and/or terrorist assets on the Moldovan-Romanian-Ukrainian tri-border is much more important than it might appear at first glance. Not only did Russia hit closer to NATO than ever, but that bloc didn’t even try to stop it, thus suggesting that they’re reluctant to get dragged even deeper into this proxy war. If Poland doesn’t unilaterally intervene by summer’s end, then peace talks might recommence shortly after.

John Varoli is a former foreign correspondent for New York Times, Bloomberg and Reuters TV. Trained as a U.S. foreign policy expert with a focus on Russia and Ukraine.

By John Varoli, Substack, 7/17/23

Kiev, April 2019 — I was dining in an upscale restaurant and warned my wealthy Ukrainian friends not to let their country become a pawn in NATO’s deadly chess game with Russia. Some said they understood what I meant, but others said the following words that sent chills up and down my spine: “We will fight the Russians even if it means that all of Ukraine will burn”.

This was the first time I encountered suicidal nationalism. Previously, I wasn’t convinced by Moscow’s claims of “Nazis” in Ukraine. But at that moment in Kiev everything became clear. Truly something dark and evil resides in the soul of Ukraine’s intellectual and political elite. Nationalists in Lvov and Kiev who openly glorify World War II Nazi collaborators are ready to accept their country’s destruction and see their people slaughtered just to insist on their ‘right’ to join NATO.

Most [independent] geopolitical experts know that this war between Russia and Ukraine was easily avoidable — it’s necessary only to guarantee political autonomy and human rights for the ethnic Russians of the Donbass region; allow Crimea the right to self-determination as enshrined in international law; and keep Ukraine geopolitically neutral and end all talk of NATO membership.

The solution really is that simple. Except it isn’t, because self-destructive Ukrainian nationalism and American imperial ambitions have found common cause. I ended that dinner in April 2019 by predicting to my Kiev friends that NATO will eventually betray Ukraine and it will be discarded on the gutter of European history, mauled, battered and violated.

Fast forward to July 2023. Last week’s NATO Summit in Lithuania sealed Ukraine’s sad fate. Despite the encouraging words and public praise, behind the scenes it was clear that Ukraine will never join NATO and that the country is merely a geopolitical ‘pawn’ in the hands of Washington DC and Brussels.

NATO’s cynical conditions

Ukraine’s shameless con man and president, Vladimir Zelensky, finally woke up to the fact that he’s been out-scammed by more devious western leaders. Zelensky took to social media and responded with petulant outbursts about no NATO membership. His masters, however, quickly put him in his place, reminding who calls the shots.

Still, Zelensky returned home from Vilnius with vague and empty promises that Ukraine might be accepted into NATO if it fulfills “certain conditions”, which of course are inherently unattainable and will never be met.

One cynical ‘condition’ for NATO membership is the defeat of Russia and conquest of the breakaway regions of Donbass and Crimea. This, of course, requires the slaughter and ethnic cleansing of the 4 million Russian citizens who live there. While Kiev can easily stomach such genocide, the fact remains that neither it nor NATO have the military might to do so.

The Kremlin won’t let such atrocities happen, and that’s why Russian troops vigorously hold the line against the Ukrainian/ NATO invasion. The lives of millions of innocent Russian civilians are literally at stake.

Bye bye Zelensky?

Zelensky’s popularity is plummeting at home and abroad. I have a feeling that the White House might soon dispatch him to the Underworld, and proclaim him a ‘martyr’ in the cause of ‘democracy’ — though, of course, pin the blame on Moscow.

Biden can’t afford to go into the presidential election with Zelensky and the Ukrainian war around his neck. He must end this war in the next six months. Zelensky’s timely demise could be the catalyst to freeze this conflict until the November 2024 election, after which the NATO crusade against Russia will resume.

What’s one more Ukrainian death, even if it’s a prominent comedian? The deaths of nearly 300,000 Ukrainian soldiers hasn’t been sufficient to satisfy the bloodlust of NATO’s vampire elite, who constantly call for more death and destruction.

Sadly, many Ukrainians are brainwashed, blinded by hatred and a desire for revenge, and unable to realize that they’re being ‘played’ by NATO. Meanwhile, Ukraine is becoming a land of the dead: Cemeteries are overflowing, funeral processions are ubiquitous, hospitals and morgues swell with the maimed and dead; and the corpses of forgotten and abandoned soldiers fertilize the fields.

In the aftermath of the NATO summit, Ukraine’s future is now almost certain — the country will slowly be depopulated and turned into a desolate wasteland. Ukraine is a failed state, having lost nearly 50% of its pre-2014 population, nearly 23% of its pre-2014 territory, and seen its economy pulverized.

Western media as sinister sirens

Despite all the western media disinformation about Russia’s imminent collapse, NATO elites in fact now understand that they’ve awakened a sleeping giant (Russia) whose feet are made of steel, not clay. Kiev’s six-week old ‘counteroffensive’ has been an absolute disaster, with a large part of its invading army already destroyed or knocked out of commission by the Russian army and air force.

Still, from across the ocean sinister sirens demand more war, enticing hapless Ukrainians to their death. White House propaganda outlets such as the New York Times and the Washington Post exhort Ukrainians to continue to die “for freedom and democracy”. Of course, these media companies earn enormous sums from major news events; they have a vested interest in fueling the war. That’s just how the media business works today. What has happened to the liberal American press of the 1980s that once preached peace and coexistence with Moscow?

In order to deceive and prod Ukrainians to march to their certain deaths, western media have concocted a bizarre parallel universe claiming that Ukraine is winning the war and that no sacrifice is too great to defeat “Putin’s autocratic Russia”. Just a little more effort, send more weapons and Kiev will be victorious over Putin’s “demoralized and poorly equipped army”.

Meanwhile, in the real world, where real people pay the price for the sins of a greedy and heartless ruling class, millions of Ukrainian families have seen their lives shattered. A recent Ukrainian survey says that nearly 70% have a family member or close friend who has been killed or injured in the war. Such collective trauma will impact current and future generations for at least half a century.

The informal army of young widows and orphans grows rapidly each day. But their suffering fails to melt the callous hearts of oligarchs, politicians, Pentagon generals and journalists in Washington DC and New York who demand: “Go fight and die!”

As far as my wealthy Kiev friends who in 2019 were so eager for war with Russia — Where are they now? They’re living in Europe and the U.S. of course. Neither they nor their children are fighting and dying.

Are liberal regimes the new Nazis?

I spent a decade (2011-2021) promoting Ukrainian cultural, business and educational projects, and I always noticed how western elites hate Ukrainians just as much as they hate Russians. Ukraine’s destruction is a desirable goal for most NATO elites. Russians and Ukrainians killing each other is their dream come true.

In this context, NATO’s diabolical policies are a continuation of the Third Reich of the 1930s and 1940s. In essence, we are witnessing a resurgent western hatred of the eastern Slavs, and a desire to exterminate them and steal their land.

The survival of both Ukraine and Russia depends on putting aside their animosity and uniting against a common enemy. The liberal regimes of NATO are determined to succeed where the Nazis failed — destroy the eastern Slavs and then establish control over Eurasia.

Only when united, just like in 1945, can the eastern Slavs put an end to this grave threat to their survival and to world civilization. The non-aligned global community, led by countries such as India and Brazil, should do everything possible to assist the two Slavic giants in achieving such a goal and reestablishing peace in Eastern Europe.

The age of NATO militarism must end. And we in the West would only benefit from a conclusion to one of the most disgraceful chapters in our collective history.

By Gilbert Doctorow, Website, 7/24/23

This evening’s News of the Week program on Russian state television opened with a 30 minute documentary survey of Polish-Russian relations from the end of WWI and during the period of the Russian Civil War, when the government under Marshall Pilsudski wrested substantial territory from Russian control. It also dealt extensively with Poland’s well documented role as aggressor and occupier of Czechoslovak, Lithuanian, Ukrainian and Belarus lands from before the start of WWII and until Hitler overran Poland.

This reportage was all built around Vladimir Putin’s speech to the RF Security Council on Friday which was partly broadcast then. Excerpts from that speech were used to introduce or segments of the overall documentary.

Let us recall that on Friday, Putin explained how and why we may expect the formal entry into the war of a Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian joint military force that will officially be presented as defending Ukrainian statehood by occupying the Western Ukraine. However, Putin described this as an occupying force which once installed in Lvov and Western Ukraine would never leave. This would in effect be a repeat of the sell-out of Ukrainian interests to Poles and cession of territory to Poland such as had been perpetrated by their leader Semyon Petlyura in April 1920 and has now been repeated in the secret agreements between presidents Zelensky of Ukraine and Duda of Poland.

However, that was not the only pending Polish aggression announced by Vladimir Putin on Friday. He said that Poland also had designs on Belarus land. The documentary this evening fleshed out that remark and reminded us of what Belarus territory Poland had grabbed by force in the 20th century when it had the opportunity. It also pointed a finger at those Belarus fighters abroad who will be used by Poland to spearhead their move against Minsk from Polish territory, and what armaments they are receiving from the United States and NATO member countries.

With respect to Polish designs on Ukraine, Putin did not tip his hand on what Russia’s response may be. But as regards Belarus, he stated directly on Friday that any act of aggression against Belarus will be considered an attack on Russia and Russia will respond with all the military force at its disposal. He warned Warsaw to consider the consequences of their actions.

Putin’s speech on Friday appeared to be directed at Warsaw. The program this evening was clearly directed at the broad Russian public, to prepare them for the onset of a possible Russian-Polish war in the immediate future.

This point was highlighted by the ongoing visit of Belarus president Lukashenko to Petersburg. There has been pomp and ceremony in this visit. Both presidents today visited Kronstadt, touring its principal church, which is the spiritual home of the Russian Navy. They also visited the about to be opened new museum of the Russian Navy, and its featured exhibit, which is Russia’s first nuclear submarine, the country’s answer to the American Nautilus at the time. And they held talks on the military and political threats their countries face. These talks unexpectedly will continue in the Konstantinovsky Palace outside Petersburg tomorrow. The reason for extensive consultations was clear from remarks that Lukashenko made to the press during his meeting with Putin: namely that Belarus military intelligence has been following very closely the massive build-up of Polish forces including tanks, helicopters and other heavy military equipment close to the Belarus border at several locations.

Tonight’s News of the Week program explained to the Russian public that the Poles’ new aggressive plans are proceeding only because of their confidence that Uncle Sam supports them. And they named the person embodying this link as former Foreign Minister of Poland Radoslaw Sikorsky (2014-15), who is today a Member of the European Parliament and delegate responsible for relations with the United States. A photo of Sikorski’s latest meetings with Pentagon officials and with Joe Biden and his advisers was put on the screen. For those who may wonder about Sikorsky’s political views, it pays to remember that he is the husband of neo-con, Russia-hating journalist Anne Applebaum, who is very well known to American audiences for her regular columns in The Washington Post.

From Russian talk shows of the past several days, it is easy to understand the Kremlin’s reading of the present proxy war in and around Ukraine: Washington sees that the Ukrainian counter-offensive is a complete failure that has cost tens of thousands of lives among the Ukrainian armed forces and has seen the destruction of a large part of the Western equipment delivered to Ukraine over the past months. Instead of suing for peace, Washington seeks to open a ‘second front,’ using Poland for this purpose.

One possible Russian response to any move against Belarus has also been discussed on air: to seize the Suwalki corridor that connects Kaliningrad to Belarus across Polish territory.. Taking control of that corridor would have the effect of isolating the Baltic States from Poland and thereby put their security at peril.

The inescapable conclusion from the latest news is that Washington’s incendiary policies and continuing escalation of the conflict cannot secure Russia’s defeat. On the contrary, they may well lead to the total collapse of the NATO alliance once its military value is disproven in a way that cannot be talked away or papered over by the most creative propagandists in DC.