Intellinews, 10/23/25

China’s state-owned oil giants have paused their purchase of Russian crude oil in response to recent US sanctions targeting Moscow’s two largest oil firms, Rosneft and Lukoil, Reuters has reported. 

This suspension, expected to impact global oil markets, is part of a broader shift in international oil trade.

On October 22 2025, the United States imposed sanctions designed to increase economic pressure on Russia amid its ongoing conflict in Ukraine. These sanctions specifically target Rosneft and Lukoil, two of Russia’s largest and most influential oil companies, both of which are responsible for a significant portion of the country’s oil exports. In response, Chinese state-owned companies such as PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC, and Zhenhua Oil have suspended seaborne oil purchases from Russia, at least in the short term. This move reflects growing concerns over the risks of dealing in Russian oil, which could expose firms to further sanctions or legal complications.

China is one of Russia’s largest oil customers, importing approximately 1.4mn barrels of Russian oil per day, with state-owned enterprises accounting for a significant portion of this volume. However, the suspension by China’s major oil players will not completely disrupt Russian exports. The majority of Russian oil destined for China is purchased by smaller, independent refiners, known as “teapots.” These refiners, unlike their state-owned counterparts, are expected to continue assessing the risks but will likely resume imports once they fully evaluate the new sanctions.

China’s decision to halt Russian oil purchases follows similar moves in India, another major buyer of Russian crude. India’s largest refiner, Reliance Industries, has already indicated plans to drastically reduce Russian oil imports, and other major players such as Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum, and Hindustan Petroleum are expected to follow suit. Together, China and India account for roughly 90% of Russia’s seaborne oil exports, meaning any reduction in their purchases could significantly impact global oil supply chains.

The decision by China and India to scale back their Russian oil imports will put additional pressure on Moscow’s oil revenue and could trigger further volatility in global oil prices. As these two countries turn to alternative sources of crude, such as the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, global oil prices are expected to rise. In the meantime, Russian oil producers are seeking alternative markets, but the shift may not be enough to offset the loss of two of their largest buyers. This disruption could also lead to a greater reliance on the so-called “shadow fleet” of tankers designed to circumvent sanctions, although this approach presents its own risks and challenges.

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India, US near major trade deal cutting tariffs to 15–16% if New Delhi will limit Russian crude imports

Intellinews, 10/23/25

India and the United States are close to finalising a long-awaited bilateral trade deal that could sharply lower tariffs on Indian exports to about 15–16% from the current average of 50%, Mint reported on October 22. The deal, part of which has been under discussion for several years, seeks to reset trade ties between the two nations by balancing market access with energy and agricultural commitments.

According to the report, energy and agriculture are the key components driving the negotiations. India may also agree to gradually scale down its imports of Russian crude oil in return for tariff concessions from Washington. The purchases of Russian oil had earlier triggered an additional 25% levy on Indian exports, adding to the reciprocal tariffs announced in April. Russia currently accounts for nearly 34% of India’s crude imports, while the US supplies about 10% of its total oil and gas demand by value.

The Indian side is also considering allowing larger imports of non-genetically modified corn and soymeal from the US to meet growing domestic demand from the poultry, dairy and ethanol sectors. The current import quota for American corn is 0.5mn tonnes a year, and this could be raised even though duties will remain unchanged at 15%. The move is seen as part of a broader effort to address food security while giving Washington a foothold in India’s agriculture market.

Negotiations have also focused on easing the entry of non-GM soymeal for both human and livestock consumption. However, discussions remain inconclusive on tariff concessions for dairy products, especially high-end cheese, a key American demand, Mint added. Sensitive areas like agriculture and energy still need political clearance before the deal is formally announced.

Mint reported that the bilateral trade agreement is likely to be unveiled at the ASEAN Summit later this month, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump may meet. The deal’s contours are largely settled, with a built-in review mechanism that would allow both sides to revisit tariff and market access conditions periodically.

Energy cooperation remains another important component. India, which imports around $12–13bn worth of crude and gas annually from the US, could expand this by a similar amount if pricing remains favourable. The commerce ministry, external affairs ministry and the national security adviser’s office are jointly steering the negotiations, with a target to conclude the deal by November 2025.

The talks come as the US looks to deepen trade ties with allies amid falling agricultural exports to China and shifting global supply chains. A successful agreement would mark one of the most significant resets in India–US trade relations in recent years.

In market indicators, the GIFT Nifty index rose sharply on the back of the Mint report, suggesting that Indian equities could open at or near a record high on October 23. Indian stock markets were closed on October 22 for Diwali.

Gift Nifty, formerly known as SGX Nifty, is a derivative contract linked to India’s Nifty 50 index, originally traded on the Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX).

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EU sets 2028 deadline to end Russian gas imports under phased ban

Intellinews, 10/20/25

European Union energy ministers have approved a plan to end all Russian gas imports by 2028, introducing a phased ban on new and existing contracts and stricter checks to prevent Kremlin-linked volumes from entering the bloc through loopholes.

In a press release, the European Council announced its new policy, which is a central element of the REPowerEU strategy and establishes a legal prohibition on both pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia while allowing a limited transition for legacy agreements. New import contracts will be banned from January 1 2026, short-term deals signed before June 17 2025 may run until June 17 2026, and long-term contracts must end by January 1 2028. The text is not yet law, as EU governments must now negotiate a final regulation with the European Parliament.

To ensure compliance, the plan introduces a prior authorisation system at the border. For Russian gas, or consignments still covered by the transition, documentation must be submitted at least one month before entry. For non-Russian gas, proof of origin must be provided five days before entry. Mixed LNG cargoes will require documentation showing the Russian and non-Russian shares, with only the latter permitted into the EU. Additional monitoring measures aim to prevent Russian gas from entering under “transit” procedures.

The initiative seeks to consolidate the geopolitical shift following Moscow’s use of energy supplies as leverage while managing the bloc’s energy security and internal political sensitivities. Russian gas still accounts for an estimated 13% of EU imports, worth more than EUR15bn ($17.5bn), a sharp decline from roughly half of the market before the war in Ukraine.

Member states will be required to submit national diversification plans unless they can demonstrate that they receive no direct or indirect Russian gas. Those still importing Russian oil must also present plans to end those flows by 2028. The Council text clarifies a suspension clause for emergencies, reduces administrative requirements for non-Russian cargoes, and directs the European Commission to produce, within five days of the regulation’s entry into force, a list of trusted origin countries exempt from prior authorisation.

The measure passed with qualified-majority support, including flexibilities for landlocked countries. Negotiations with the European Parliament are next, while a separate sanctions package proposing to advance an EU-wide LNG ban to 2027 remains under discussion.

The Lever Daily, 10/16/25

Forever wars, forever profits. The White House has authorized covert CIA intervention in Venezuela as the military reportedly prepares a number of actions in the country, including land strikes. Blaming drugs and other crime, President Donald Trump announced an additional 25 percent tariff on countries that buy Venezuelan oil earlier this year. The president also allowed permits enabling Big Oil companies to operate in Venezuela to expire — before giving Chevron a restricted license this summer following months of lobbying from the firm. Nonetheless, Trump’s policies so far have halved Chevron’s exports of Venezuelan oil in a matter of months, meaning U.S. intervention in the region could be a welcome development for Big Oil. 

• “We’re a commercial player, not a political player,” Chevron Chief Executive Mike Wirth told investors last year, even as the company spent more than $9 million on lobbying and $1 million in campaign expenditures in 2024.

War crimes subsidized. As displaced Palestinians return to a leveled Gaza amid the Trump administration’s precarious Israel-Hamas “ceasefire,” senators quietly worked through a government shutdown to deliver $914 billion in 2026 military spending. The budget fulfills a number of expensive surveillance and weapons funding requests from the powerful American Israel Public Affairs Committee. Through its donor-funded war chest, AIPAC has secured more than $38 billion in U.S. taxpayer-funded contributions toward Israel since Oct. 7.

A weapons bonanza. In a 77-20 vote last week, Senators passed their version of the National Defense Authorization Act, which expands the Pentagon’s already outsized annual budget by more than $100 billion — including lucrative subsidies for the Israeli military. That includes $75 million in funding for counter-drone technology, $80 million for anti-tunnel engineering, and $50 million towards “emerging technologies in warfare” like artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and automation.

• Research shows that the Israeli military’s use of automated technologies has accelerated the country’s mass killings and surveillance operations — while shirking the moral and legal burden of war to an algorithm.

Secret stockpiles. Also buried deep in the defense budget is a two-year extension of an opaque and unlimited weapons stockpile reserved for Israel — one that the Israeli military can call upon without approval from Congress. The War Reserve Stock for Allies-Israel is “the least transparent mechanism of providing arms to Israel,” a State Department official told Responsible Statescraft, as transfers require a simple sign-off from the Secretary of Defense.

• Congress previously capped how much funding the stockpile received per year at $200 million, but a 2024 law temporarily waived that limit.

Bought and paid for. Last election cycle, AIPAC dished out a record $126 million in campaign cash. Recipients on the Senate Armed Services Committee, which helps oversee the annual defense budget, include a top beneficiary of the Israel lobby: Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) accepted $1.8 million in AIPAC funds last election while standing with the minority of Democrats who’ve backed continued arms sales to Israel.

• Meanwhile, since 2019, the committee’s leadership, Chairman Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) and Ranking Member Jack Reed (D-R.I.), have accepted more than $1 million in combined campaign cash from the defense industry, which has reaped millions in Pentagon contracts backing Israel since Oct. 7.

Russia Matters, 10/24/25

1. The White House canceled the planned Trump-Putin summit and imposed sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies after an Oct. 20 call between U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov revealed that the Kremlin is clinging to its long-held positions, namely that Ukraine hand over control of the entire Donbas region as part of any settlement, U.S. officials told The Wall Street Journal.¹ According to CNN, it was not only Vladimir Putin’s maximalist demands on Kyiv, but also his refusal to agree to an immediate ceasefire and Russia’s continued strikes on civilians in Ukraine that “all added up, in Donald Trump’s mind, to a clear signal that nothing really had changed.” “I just felt it was time,” Trump himself said moments after the new sanctions were announced on the pair of Russia’s oil giants, Rosneft and Lukoil.² Commenting on the sanctions, Putin said they will have “serious implications for us, but they will not significantly affect our economic well-being,”³ while his deputy at Russia’ Security Council Dmitry Medvedev wrote that the U.S. has now “fully embarked on the warpath against Russia,” according to Kremlin.ru and WSJ, respectively. With Rosneft and Lukoil penalized, three-quarters of Russian oil exports will come from companies under new U.S. sanctions, according to Kommersant’s calculations.⁴ Analysts say the impact of blacklisting Rosneft and Lukoil will hinge on three things: how well they are enforced, the reaction of major markets in India and China and whether Moscow can circumvent the measures, according to WSJ.⁵ The U.S. announcement was coordinated with the EU, which adopted its own new package of sanctions targeting Russian energy, banks, crypto exchanges and entities in China, according to the European Council, Financial Times and Bloomberg.
2. Putin threatens an overwhelming response to use of Western long-range missiles by Ukraine for deep strikes into Russia even as Trump denies authorizing use of such missiles for long-range strikes. On Oct. 22, WSJ wrote, citing U.S. officials, that “the Trump administration has lifted a key restriction on Ukraine’s use of some long-range missiles provided by Western allies.” “U.S. officials said they expect Ukraine to conduct more cross-border attacks using the Storm Shadow, which is launched from Ukrainian aircraft and can travel more than 180 miles. The U.S. can restrict Ukraine’s use of Storm Shadow because the missiles use American targeting data,” according to WSJ. Speaking on the same day,  however, Trump rejected the WSJ report. “The Wall Street Journal story on the U.S.A.’s approval of Ukraine being allowed to use long range missiles deep into Russia is FAKE NEWS!” Trump wrote on Truth Social, according to The Hill. Despite this denial and Trump’s earlier decision not to allow supplies of Tomahawks to Ukraine, the Kremlin still felt it necessary to issue another warning. In a choreographed Q&A on Oct. 23, Putin was asked by Russian media: “Regarding the use of Western long-range weapons, how do you personally assess the evidently contradictory signals coming from Washington? Recently, The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. has lifted a key restriction on the use of such weapons. … In your view, is this still an escalation?” Putin’s answer was: “This is an attempt at escalation. However, if such weapons are used to strike Russian territory, the response will be very serious, if not overwhelming. Let them think about that.”
3. Putin oversees test-launches of long-range missiles operated by all three elements of Russia’s strategic nuclear triad. On Oct. 22, Putin oversaw a strategic nuclear forces exercise involving launches of a Yars ICBM from Plesetsk, of a Sineva SLBM from the Bryansk submarine in the Barents Sea and “a volley of air-launched cruise missile” fired by Tu-95MS bombers. The exercise “evaluated the readiness of military command bodies and the operational staff’s proficiency in organizing and managing the troops (forces) under their command,” according to the Kremlin. Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov “was a bit more specific”: the goal of the exercise was to “practice the procedures for authorizing the use of nuclear weapons,” according to renowned Russian nuclear forces expert Pavel Podvig.
4. In the week of Oct. 14–21, 2025, Russia gained 33 square miles of Ukraine’s territory, down from the previous week’s gain of 48 square miles, according to the Oct. 22, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In the past four weeks (Sept. 23–Oct. 21, 2025), Russian forces gained 128 square miles of Ukrainian territory, a decrease from the 206 square miles these forces gained during the previous four-week period (Aug. 26–Sept. 23, 2025), according to the card, which analyzes ISW data for measuring changes in territorial control in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Since Jan. 1, 2025, average Russian monthly gains have been 168 square miles and, as of Oct. 21, 2025, Russia controlled 19% of Ukraine’s territory, according to the card.

By Ben Aris, Intellinews, 10/16/25

The number of young Ukrainians fleeing the war and seeking asylum in Germany has surged, following Kyiv’s decision to partially lift its travel ban for men aged 18 to 22, according to figures from the German Interior Ministry, reported by Die Welt.

Ukrainian asylum applications in Germany have ballooned tenfold, from around 100 per week before the policy change to approximately 1,000 per week in recent months, according to local data.

The regulation, which Kyiv implemented earlier this year, allows men under 22 who were already abroad or studying abroad to extend their stay or travel more freely — a move officials framed as a minor adjustment aimed at mitigating growing criticism of Bankova’s increasingly aggressive conscription tactics.

Ukrainian politicians have denied that the change has prompted a large-scale departure of draft-age men. However, the German data suggests otherwise.

The sharp increase in asylum applications, overwhelmingly from young men, has raised concerns in both Berlin and Brussels about the potential impact on Ukraine’s mobilisation efforts and broader EU migration policy, which could give Russia the edge on numbers.

Ukraine introduced a blanket travel ban for men aged 18 to 60 shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, in an effort to maintain sufficient manpower for its armed forces. Exceptions have since been made for humanitarian, educational and professional reasons, but Kyiv has faced growing pressure over the social and political implications of conscription.

The Interior Ministry did not provide a detailed age breakdown of the new asylum seekers but confirmed to Die Welt that most are young and male, consistent with Ukraine’s revised policy.

Ukrainian authorities have defended the decision, arguing it affects a relatively small group and does not undermine military readiness. “There is no mass exodus,” senior officials have said, insisting that enlistment and mobilisation measures remain in place.

Still, the sharp increase in asylum claims in Germany — which already hosts over 1.1mn Ukrainian refugees — may complicate EU coordination on migration policy and military assistance. With Ukraine preparing for a third year of full-scale war, Western governments are watching closely for any signs of mobilisation fatigue or domestic instability.

German officials have not indicated plans to alter their asylum policy in response but have acknowledged the numbers are “notable and being monitored.” The development comes as EU capitals continue to debate burden-sharing mechanisms and support packages for Ukraine in 2025.

Desertions swell

The exodus of young men, thanks to the easing of travel restrictions, comes on top of reports of the number of desertions from the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) swelling.

Over the past year, twice as many military personnel have left their units without authorisation in Ukraine as during the first two and a half years of the conflict, according to the Ukrainian publication Strana, citing the Prosecutor General’s Office.

According to the agency, a total of nearly 290,000 criminal cases for unauthorized abandonment and desertion were opened during the conflict. Between January 2022 and September 2024, 90,000 cases were opened, and another 200,000 in the last year. Experts says that the true number of those who went AWOL is almost certainly significantly higher than the official figures.

In August, Ukrainska Pravda, citing the Prosecutor General’s Office, reported that 110,511 cases of unauthorised absence from service in the Ukrainian army had been registered since the beginning of 2025 – more than all the cases brought in the previous three years of the conflict with Russia combined.

The lack of manpower and falling number of fresh recruits is having a catastrophic effect on the AFU’s ability to defend the frontline in Donbas, where kilometre-long unmanned holes are opening up, Ukrainska Pravda reported earlier this month.

By Kyle Anzalone, The Libertarian Institute, 10/14/25

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is considering easing its rules on the use of force against Russia. Russia is accused of violating Estonian, Polish, and Romanian airspace in September. 

Sky TG24, an Italian news outlet, said NATO leaders are seeking “more flexibility” in engaging Russia on the bloc’s Eastern flank. “NATO Commander-in-Chief, US General Alexus Grynkewich, has asked allies for ‘more flexibility’ in the rules of engagement to better manage the defense of the eastern flank,” the report explains. “Especially in light of the launch of Operation Sentry East, which is seen as a ‘test bed’ for the development of an integrated air defense operation.”

Some members of NATO are seeking to ease or remove “national limitations” that countries impose on the military equipment under NATO command. 

The discussions follow Russian alleged violations of NATO airspace last month. Tallinn claimed three Russian jets flew just inside Estonian airspace over the Gulf of Finland. NATO says the jets remained in Estonian territory for about 12 minutes, and the bloc scrambled F-35s operated by Italy to escort the Russian warplanes. 

The Kremlin denied the accusations. 

In a separate incident, about two dozen Russian decoy drones entered Polish airspace. The bloc scrambled multiple fighter jets and shot down some of the UAVs. The operation cost the bloc about half a billion dollars. 

Russia has denied that it targeted Poland, and Belarus claimed that the drones flew into Polish airspace after they were impacted by Ukrainian electronic interference.

In a third event, a Russian drone entered Romanian airspace before turning around and striking Ukraine. 

Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte have called for shooting down Russian aircraft in allied airspace.