By Fred Weir, Christian Science Monitor, 12/11/24

The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, which Moscow had helped to prop up for almost a decade, has dealt a serious setback to Russia’s global ambitions.

But Russian foreign policy specialists insist it’s not a ruinous one.

As they grapple with the rapid demise of Mr. Assad’s rule, Russian analysts say that the Kremlin will need to adjust to the shifting balance of power in the Middle East. That includes absorbing the likely loss of Russia’s two military bases in Syria, and accepting what analysts call the crushing defeat of Kremlin ally Iran.

The psychological blow to Russia is also serious, they warn. The Kremlin’s 2015 military intervention in Syria was Moscow’s first such post-Soviet operation outside its own region. Its perceived success drove a lot of Russia’s subsequent diplomatic efforts in the Mideast, as well as its recent inroads into Africa.

Igor Korotchenko, editor of National Defense, a Moscow-based security journal, says he’s still cautiously optimistic that Russian global influence can survive the loss of Syria, and perhaps the Kremlin can even forge a practical relationship with any new Syrian regime that emerges.

“Let’s wait and see how things play out,” he says. “Russia is still a player in the region, maintaining good relations with countries like the UAE, Egypt, and Qatar. We never put our stakes on one person, and we have sufficient resources to pursue our goals” without a foothold in Syria.

Doling out blame for Syria

For now, the victorious Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) forces have not touched the Russian Embassy or military installations – Iran’s Embassy in Damascus was trashed on the first day – even though Mr. Assad and his family have been granted asylum in Russia.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday that Moscow was in contact with the new Syrian authorities in an effort to safeguard Russian assets. “We need to base our actions on the realities that exist at this moment on the ground,” he said.

Russia reached out to the Taliban after the United States’ failure in Afghanistan, canceling its “terrorist” designation and discussing a broader normalization of relations; experts say Moscow may wish to make a similar outreach to HTS. But it will be much harder given Russia’s staunch backing of Mr. Assad and its armed efforts to suppress the Syrian opposition over the past decade.

Russia’s naval base in Tartus, Syria, shown here in a Dec. 5, 2024, satellite image, is one of two Russian military bases whose future the Kremlin is worried about under a new Syrian government.

Whatever may happen, the blame game is already in full swing in the Russian media.

Some are pointing at Turkey, which allegedly sidestepped the Astana peace process and went behind Russia’s back to sponsor the HTS rebel offensive that overran Damascus last weekend. Others say Israel’s successful war against major backers like Iran and Hezbollah made Mr. Assad’s fall inevitable, even though Moscow kept providing air support to the bitter end.

Some accuse Mr. Assad himself of self-isolating and refusing all attempts to find a broader social compromise.

“Assad didn’t take Russian advice,” says Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser. “He was told many times that he needed to initiate some real political reforms, include members of the opposition in government, reconcile with Turkey, and curb the excesses of his security forces. He didn’t listen.

“So, Assad was already distanced from Russia. At the end, he was taking advice from Iran and his own family, not from us,” he says.

“A bad setback, but we can get past this”

Despite the Putin-era aura of success, this is far from the first time Moscow has faced a debacle in its Middle East relations.

Soviet-sponsored Syria lost two wars with Israel in 1967 and 1973, necessitating replacement of its military arsenal. Egyptian President Anwar Sadat canceled a treaty of friendship with the USSR in 1971, and kicked all Soviet advisers out of the country. Moscow’s disastrous war in Afghanistan in the 1980s poisoned its relations with the Muslim world, and even contributed to the collapse of the Soviet state.

“We’ve got a long history of dealing with these countries, and we’re quite accustomed to seeing them defeated militarily,” says Mr. Markov. “So, the mood in Moscow [over the loss of Syria] is calm enough. It’s a bad setback, but we can get past this.”

Unlike the former Soviet Union, which based its foreign policy on ideological calculations, Vladimir Putin’s Russia tends to take a pragmatic and transactional approach, seeking advantage where it can, says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, a Moscow-based foreign policy journal.

“The Middle East is a region where you can’t expect any lasting success,” he says. “The big loser in this turn of events is Iran, and the winners are Israel and Turkey.”

As for Russian relations with Ankara, he says, “Of course Moscow is angry, because the Turks knew about the HTS offensive and didn’t say a word to us about it. But that’s how Russian-Turkish relations work in general: A very low level of trust, but we try to find common ground and work together where we can.”

Moscow’s formerly good relations with Israel will grow even worse with the implosion of Russian military power in Syria. “Israel is becoming much stronger as a regional power,” says Mr. Markov. “Russia needs to think about how to deal with Israel in these new conditions, where it is a clear winner.”

A shift in world affairs?

Mr. Lukyanov argues that the fall of Mr. Assad illustrates a completely new trend in world affairs, in which regional players take the lead and the influence of their great-power sponsors diminishes. The main actors in the Syrian drama are relatively independent ones, including Israel, Turkey, Iran, and even HTS. The U.S. and Russia are still on the stage, but are not driving events and, Mr. Lukyanov says, are increasingly irrelevant.

“It’s a seismic shift, in which outside powers are steadily losing influence and local actors are taking the lead,” he says. “Russian capacities are shrinking, but so are American ones. In future, regional powers will be the most important players, formulating their priorities in a regional way.”

Russia already made the choice to put its own local interests first, declining to divert any resources from its war in Ukraine to help Mr. Assad.

“Moscow needs to think about the implications of this,” Mr. Lukyanov says. “Maybe the race for global influence is obsolete, and Russia needs to reformulate its ambitions in terms of being an effective regional power.”

By Joe Lauria, Consortium News, 12/13/24

President-elect Donald Trump accused the Biden administration of “escalating this war” in Ukraine and “making it worse” by allowing U.S. long-range ATACMS missiles to be fired from Ukraine deep into Russia.

“I disagree very vehemently with sending missiles hundreds of miles into Russia,” Trump told Time magazine in an interview published on Thursday. He said:

“Why are we doing that? We’re just escalating this war and making it worse. That should not have been allowed to be done. Now they’re doing not only missiles, but they’re doing other types of weapons. And I think that’s a very big mistake, very big mistake.”

Last Thursday former U.N. weapons inspector Scott Ritter was on a day-long venture in the labyrinth of House office buildings on Capitol Hill to lobby members of Congress and their staffs to prevent the U.S. from attacking Russia with ATACMS.

That alone, Ritter argued, would reduce the threat of a nuclear exchange with Russia, which had warned would be possible if the missile attacks continue.

Among the steps Ritter recommended to Republican Congressmen was to get word to Trump’s transition team to get Trump to make an immediate statement that after he is sworn in he will order a cessation of ATACMS being fired into Russia.

Such a statement from Trump, Ritter argued on Capitol Hill, would lessen tension with Moscow over the ATACMS and possibly avert catastrophe.  Trump’s comments to Time was what Ritter had in mind.

Trump  said:

‘”I think the most dangerous thing right now is what’s happening, where Zelensky has decided, with the approval of, I assume, the President, to start shooting missiles into Russia. I think that’s a major escalation. I think it’s a foolish decision. But I would imagine people are waiting until I get in before anything happens. I would imagine. I think that would be very smart to do that.”

Ritter entering Congressional office at the Capitol to warn of nuclear war. (Joe Lauria)

Biden’s Inexplicable & Reckless Change in Course

Just two months ago, in September, President Joe Biden had bowed to the realists in the Pentagon to oppose allowing long-range British Storm Shadow missiles from being fired by Ukraine deep into Russia out of fear it would lead to a direct NATO-Russia military confrontation with all that that entails.

Putin warned at the time that because British soldiers on the ground in Ukraine would actually launch the British missiles into Russia with U.S. geostrategic support, it “will mean that NATO countries — the United States and European countries — are at war with Russia. And if this is the case, then, bearing in mind the change in the essence of the conflict, we will make appropriate decisions in response to the threats that will be posed to us.” 

That was a clear warning that British and U.S. targets could be hit. Biden thus wisely backed off. 

It was the second time that Biden had sided with the Pentagon against the neocons in his administration when it came to avoiding direct war with Russia.

The first time was in March 2022 when his neocon Secretary of State Antony Blinken stepped out of line to announce that the U.S. would give NATO-member Poland a “green light” to send Mig-29 fighter jets to Ukraine to enforce a no-fly zone against Russian aircraft.  

[See: The Madness of Antony Blinken]

Members of Congress and the media then piled the pressure on Biden to approve it until cooler heads at the U.S. Defense Department, the greatest purveyor of violence in history, stepped in to stop it.

Biden ultimately sided with the Pentagon, and he couldn’t be more explicit why. He opposed a NATO no-fly zone over Ukraine fighting Russian aircraft, he said, because “that’s called World War III, okay? Let’s get it straight here, guys. We will not fight the third world war in Ukraine.”

But then, after his party lost the White House in November, Biden suddenly reversed himself on his sensible positions and is defied the Pentagon to roll the dice that Russia’s warnings are bluffs that won’t lead to nuclear conflict. 

While he previously would not even authorize British long-range missile attacks into Russia in September, let alone U.S. ATACMS, he authorized the ATACMS, risking Russia taking direct action against U.S. targets. 

It remains to be seen if Trump’s words can reassure the Kremlin.

Of course it was Trump who provided Ukraine with lethal aid. Barack Obama had refused, saying Ukraine was not a vital U.S. interest, as it was for Russia and there was no point in angering Moscow. Obama also worried that U.S. weapons could wind up in the hands of “thugs” — i.e., Azov, neo-nazi types in Ukraine.

By Rick Sterling, LA Progressive, 12/10/24

My friend lives in Damascus. I will call him Qusay to protect his identity. Qusay was born and grew up in Aleppo and still has family there. He is a high-level translator and university professor. From his family, he learned what unfolded in Aleppo following the invasion beginning November 27. He personally witnessed events in Damascus, where he still is. The following is what Qusay told me about events in Syria over the past 12 days.

Overthrow of Aleppo

The march and overthrow of Aleppo was done by Syrian and many foreign fighters supplied and backed by Turkish intelligence and military. Syrian military communications were jammed using electronic warfare. The invaders used drones for surveilling and attacking Syrian forces. The jihadists were trained in the use of drones by NATO-funded Ukrainians. Turkey and other NATO forces supplied the drones and all sorts of other advanced weaponry. They had tanks in addition to machinegun-mounted trucks and other vehicles.

The jihadists were carefully prepared by Turkish and US forces. They sent individuals to talk with influential people in the Aleppo community, promising payments of hundreds of dollars and other rewards in exchange for complicity or no opposition. Doctors, engineers, and public officials were contacted personally. It is highly likely that military officials were also contacted. When the invasion supported by the Turkish military happened starting November 27, the Syrian defense of Aleppo collapsed.

Qusay thinks the Syrian army was exhausted from 13 years of war plus constant attacks from Israeli jets they have been helpless to stop. They, like all Syrian society, have been impoverished by intense sanctions from the West coupled with the theft of essential national resources. The primary wheat-growing and oil and gas-producing regions have been occupied by US forces and their Kurdish proxies since 2016. As a result, most Syrians only have electricity a few hours per day and have trouble putting food on the table. Before the “dirty war” began in 2011, Syria was self-sufficient in food and energy. Syria had no national debt and Syrians enjoyed free health care and education.

The invaders in Aleppo tried to assuage the public that they are not like the “rebels” of old who persecuted and killed Christians and Alawi and enforced sharia law. In Aleppo, they provided free bread for families and quickly set up electronic communications hubs so that everyone might have internet and also so they could broadcast their messages.

Collapse in Damascus

While the northern invading army went on to central Syria, a different attacking group worked from the south. First, they attacked and took over Deraa on the Jordan border, then Suweida. Then they advanced to Damascus. It seems there were agreements in advance because there was little military defense of the capital of Syria. President Assad relinquished power and departed for Moscow.

On Day One (Sunday) after the collapse of Bashar’s government, looting and chaos erupted immediately. People were terrified and afraid to go out of their homes. Government buildings were looted and ransacked. Universities were broken into and computers and lab equipment stolen. The Central Bank of Syria and other institutions were vandalized.

Many people have replaced the flag of Syria with the “revolution” flag out of fear.  (The “revolution” flag is in fact, the French colonial flag).

Now, on Day Two, the situation is better. There is more security. Many stores are still closed, but they are opening one by one. The former PM and cabinet have urged people to go back to work.

The titular head of the new government is Abu Mohammed al Jolani. He has publicly stated women are free to wear what they want, and there will be no retaliation or revenge attacks. The Syrian Prime Minister has been replaced with Mohamad al Bashir. The Jolani government seems to be in control throughout most of the country, including Latakia.

A huge concern now is the ongoing Israeli attacks and bombings. Israel has destroyed nearly all military buildings in Damascus area while Israeli drones are constantly overhead. Queneitra in the far south has been occupied by the Zionist army. Netanyahu and Biden have both taken “credit” for the long dirty war in Syria.

Qusay says, “Suddenly everything is lost…Syrians are used to relying on the army to defend our country. But there is no more defense. Israel is taking overy Syrian land. Turkey is taking over another part of Syria. ….. We don’t know where Syria is going.”

Some Syrians think they will have a better life. Others believe this is an illusion and there are dark days ahead. Last weekend, Qusay’s family had their bags packed and were ready to leave. But there is no place to go. Both Jordan and Lebanon have closed their borders.

***

Evacuating My Christian Family from Al Qaeda Controlled Syria – Kim Iversen Interviews Kevork Almassian

YouTube link here.

Center for Citizen Initiatives, 12/3/24

Dear Friends and Colleagues, In the few weeks that have passed since CCI last appeared in your inbox our world has radically changed, and we cannot anticipate how these changes will affect us. Following a chaotic and deadly election season we have a new President due to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025. Perhaps a third of the US electorate considers his incoming administration to be a catastrophe beyond endurance, a continuing manifestation of ‘Trump Derangement Syndrome.’ Another third contemplates his presidency with the ecstatic belief that he will make good on his promises to clean up the labyrinth of a disorganized, dysfunctional and out-of-touch federal bureaucracy, perhaps an exercise in wishful thinking. The final third is waiting nervously – not just to see what President Trump will actually do once in office, but as importantly, to see what havoc may be wreaked upon us between now and 20 January; a more or less mildly depressed centrist position between the two extremes. For our purposes at CCI, the Biden administration’s recent escalation of the war in Ukraine is enormously disturbing. With the greenlight given to the Zelensky government to use US-supplied long-range missiles against Russian territory, President Putin has announced that as far as Russia is concerned, the West, especially the United States, has declared war on Russia. Our friends in Russia tell us this new reality spread across the country immediately following Mr. Putin’s speeches of November 21 and 22. A good friend in Sergiev Posad tells us she and her colleagues at work discuss the strain of anticipating a missile strike on Moscow, a mere 70 kilometers away, constantly. She also tells us that church attendance is way up with parents now insisting their children attend – something quite unusual in recent years. The fact that officials in our government insist we are not at war with Russia is irrelevant to the Russians when American made and American guided weapons fall on Russian cities. One must ask: how many Americans appreciate this situation – that ‘reality’ for Russian citizens is not whatever comes out of the mouths of American officials? ‘Reality’ for Russians is what is physically ‘real’, a matter of what happens on their soil. Many of the most respected members of the independent media world we rely on have gone on record as stating the belief that we are in a far more dangerous position regarding the possibility of a nuclear war between Russia and the United States than has ever existed before in our history – Cuban missile crisis notwithstanding. Those of you who remember that episode will recall that it lasted for about three days and was resolved quickly, to everyone’s relief. Today, the teetering-on-the-brink posture is ongoing, day after day after day with no relief in sight and it’s not just independent voices raising the alarm now – mainstream media and western intelligence agencies are also spooked. Anyone in the US who is paying attention must empathize with our friend outside of Moscow. We would like our Russian friends to know that there are many people on this side of the ocean who are also praying for peace. Still, we find ourselves in the holiday season and we must have the courage to acknowledge the reasons we celebrate. We are thankful for the fact that the worst has not happened and that we are here, alive, well and prepared to take whatever small steps we can to ensure that it never does. And above all we must have the hope for the future that this month’s celebrations demand. At CCI we remain committed to our mission to promote peace and friendship between the citizens of the two countries whose official position is currently hostile. It has been a uniquely successful endeavor for over forty years and our hope, and our earnest intent, is that this undertaking will continue. My heartfelt thanks go out to the entire CCI community of citizen diplomats – in Russia and in the USA – for being here to share the hope and the good work with us. Yours sincerely and with prayers for peace, Paula Day The Center for Citizen Initiatives

YouTube link here.

This video aired on 12/9/24.