In this brief video, retired army colonel and historian Andrew Bacevich, president of the non-interventionist Quincy Institute, discusses how Covid-19 has exposed the failure of the U.S. national security state’s priorities in the post-Cold War era.

In terms of how the national security state failed in its handling of the pandemic, Scott Ritter explains in a recent article for The American Conservative that the National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI) – a body within the larger U.S. intelligence apparatus – failed in its most basic duties. First Ritter explains what the NCMI is and provides an example of how it can work successfully:

Included in this budget is a small, specialized intelligence unit known as the National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI), which operates as part of the Defense Intelligence Agency. The mission of the NCMI is to serve as the lead activity within the Department of Defense (DoD) “for the production of medical intelligence,” and to prepare and coordinate “integrated, all-source intelligence for the DoD and other government and international organizations on foreign health threats and other medical issues to protect U.S. interests worldwide.”

For a small agency, the NCMI packs a large punch in terms of the overall impact of its product. For example, in April 2009—two months prior to when the WHO and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) officially declared the global outbreak of H1N1 influenza a pandemic, NCMI published an intelligence product, known as an “Infectious Disease Risk Assessment,” which predicted that a recent outbreak of the Swine Flu (H1N1) would become a pandemic. 

The positive work done by the NCMI in relation to the H1N1 outbreak contributed to the creation of the 2012 “National Strategy for Biosurveillance,” designed to help facilitate a full-time institutionalized process for obtaining timely and accurate insight on current and emerging biological risks. President Obama himself noted the critical role played by “accurate and timely information” during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic that enabled decision makers, including himself, to “develop the effective responses that save lives. 

Then Ritter describes how the NCMI completely dropped the ball on the coronavirus:

The NCMI’s job, [Air Force Col. Dr. Anthony M.] Rizzo noted, is predictive in nature—not to explain what is happening, but rather “what we believe is going to happen.” To do this, NCMI has access to the resources of the totality of the intelligence community, including intercepted communications, satellite imagery, and sensitive human intelligence, including covert sample collection.

The coronavirus was clearly part of the NCMI’s remit. And yet its first Infectious Disease Risk Assessment for COVID-19 was issued on January 5, 2020, reporting that 59 people had been taken ill in Wuhan, China. This report was derived not from any sensitive intelligence collection effort or independent biosurveillance activity, but rather from a report issued to the WHO by the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission, dated January 5, 2020.

The next day the CDC warned American citizens to take precautions if traveling to China, followed a day later with the activation of a COVID-19 incident management team within the CDC Emergency Management System. This, however, is not the kind of predictive analysis that U.S. policymakers needed if they were going to get ahead of the coronavirus pandemic. Unlike 2009, when the NCMI provided a full two months heads up about the threat of a Swine Flu pandemic, in 2020 the Trump administration was taking its cues from the WHO, which waited until January 30, 2020 to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). The NCMI had been relegated to a mere observer, having failed in its mission to provide timely, predictive analysis of pending epidemiological threats.

Read the full article here.

In a recent article by Ken Klippenstein for The Nation, it is brought out that the Pentagon had predicted in a 2017 report that a respiratory virus was likely to cause a health crisis in the United States within the coming years. Furthermore, the Pentagon assessed that the federal government had insufficient equipment to handle such a crisis, such as ventilators, masks, etc.:

Despite President Trump’s repeated assertions that the Covid-19 epidemic was “unforeseen” and “came out of nowhere,” the Pentagon was well aware of not just the threat of a novel influenza, but even anticipated the consequent scarcity of ventilators, face masks, and hospital beds, according to a 2017 Pentagon plan obtained by The Nation.

“The most likely and significant threat is a novel respiratory disease, particularly a novel influenza disease,” the military plan states. Covid-19 is a respiratory disease caused by the novel (meaning new to humans) coronavirus. The document specifically references coronavirus on several occasions, in one instance saying, “Coronavirus infections [are] common around the world.”

The Nation article quotes a retired intelligence official, Denis Kaufman, who said that some agencies within the intelligence community had warned of a possible pandemic but that administration officials had ignored it:

Denis Kaufman, who served as head of the Infectious Diseases and Countermeasures Division at the Defense Intelligence Agency from 2014 to 2017, stressed that US intelligence had been well-aware of the dangers of coronaviruses for years. (Kaufman retired from his decades-long career in the military in December of 2017.)

“The Intelligence Community has warned about the threat from highly pathogenic influenza viruses for two decades at least. They have warned about coronaviruses for at least five years,” Kaufman explained in an interview.

“There have been recent pronouncements that the coronavirus pandemic represents an intelligence failure…. it’s letting people who ignored intelligence warnings off the hook.”

The bottom line is that the national security apparatus of the United States, including all of those serving in the executive branch of government who are privy to such information, failed in connection with a real threat to the average American’s security while being preoccupied with and investing gobs of resources into countering foreign bogeymen.

It was recently announced that Putin is under self-quarantine at his residence outside of Moscow after learning that a hospital administrator he came in contact with last week had tested positive for Covid-19. As reported by Zerohedge (emphasis in original)

On Tuesday it was revealed that Denis Protsenko, the head doctor at the infectious diseases hospital treating coronavirus patients in Moscow, tested positive for COVID-19.

Just a week ago Dr. Protsenko was photographed shaking hands with President Vladimir Putin, during the Russian leader’s visit to the hospital, where he donned a full protective Hazmat suit to visit patients. But during most of his interaction with Protenko, Putin wasn’t wearing the protective gear. 

Putin’s office now reports he’ll conduct his duties remotely, in self-isolation after the exposure. “The president prefers these days to work remotely,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the press just before Putin was due to hold a cabinet meeting by videoconference Wednesday.

After a surge in confirmed cases of the virus earlier this week, Putin gave a second address to the nation on Thursday regarding the Covid-19 crisis (see video above). In that address he announced that the paid work holiday would be extended through the end of April. According to Bryan MacDonald’s report at RT:

Putin said the peak of the coronavirus epidemic is yet to come both globally and in Russia. Moscow, which is the hardest hit Russian city, announced almost 600 new confirmed cases on Thursday. 

“I’ve made a decision to extend the time off until the end of the month, that is, until April 30 inclusively, while maintaining wages for employees,” the President said.

According to Putin, the combination of isolation regimes and holidays will allow Russia “to buy time for proactive measures.” However, he conceded it’s too early to talk about turning the tide of infections. 

Putin also announced that, depending on circumstances, some regions will be allowed to implement tighter restrictions with respect to countering the spread of the virus.

“More stringent restrictions must be observed somewhere, while somewhere else, where there is a high level of preparedness, local, point solutions will be enough now,” the president said, calling for the need to take into account specific regional features.

The Russian regions will receive additional powers to decide which methods to choose to fight the novel coronavirus, Putin said.

“The constituent regions and heads of the regions will get additional authorities by my orders. Before the end of this week, they are to define the concrete set of preventive measures optimal for their territories from the point of view of ensuring the health and safety of the people, as well as stability of the economy and key infrastructure,” Putin said.

There are reports that Russian economists quoted in the Russian media have suggested that the month-long holiday may lead to billions of dollars in losses and numerous company failures, with the country’s largest retail association predicting millions of job losses in that sector along with major debt defaults from shopping centers across Russia.

One final note: The Kremlin has officially denied that talks have occurred between Russia and Saudi Arabia on oil, which undermines a claim Trump made via a tweet yesterday that a deal – which would help the U.S. shale industry by letting up on the recent nosedive in oil prices – was imminent between the two countries. According to the Moscow Times, which quoted the Russian Interfax news agency:

“No, there was no conversation,” Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Interfax news agency, adding that “so far” there were no plans for such talks, after Trump said the Saudi crown prince had spoken to Putin and he expected them to agree on a cut in oil production.

In order “to avoid endangering the health of Russian citizens due to an unfavorable epidemiological situation,” Putin signed a decree last week postponing the national vote on the proposed amendments to the country’s constitution, which were originally scheduled to take place on April 22nd. The new date will be determined later and announced via another decree. According to the Russian news agency TASS:

Putin stressed during his address to the Russian nation earlier on Wednesday that ensuring public safety and health is a top priority. “I believe that the vote needs to be postponed to a later date. We will see how the situation unfolds in the regions and in the country on the whole, and will make a decision on a new date based on expert opinion,” he emphasized.

On the same day, Putin outlined a package of measures intended to stabilize the economic situation in Russia amid the pandemic. The measures included a 15% tax on Russian wealth being parked outside of Russia. RT reported Putin’s comments as follows:

“Currently two-thirds of such funds, and, in fact, this is the income of specific individuals (as a result of various kinds of schemes of the so-called optimization), are subject to a real tax rate of only 2 percent. While citizens, even with small salaries, pay income tax of 13 percent. This is, to say the least, unfair. Therefore, I propose for those who withdraw their income in the form of dividends to foreign accounts, to provide a tax rate on such dividends of 15 percent.”

Putin added that Russia is prepared to “withdraw from agreements on avoiding double taxation with countries which disagree with these measures.”

Putin also announced tax and loan deferments for small and medium sized businesses for the next six months as restaurants and cafes have now been ordered closed. VAT would be excluded.

“I consider it necessary to provide tax deferrals for all taxes for small and medium-sized businesses, with the exception of VAT, for the next 6 months. In addition to such deferrals, a deferment on insurance contributions to social funds should be given to micro-enterprises,” he said on Wednesday during his televised address to the.nation over coronavirus spread.

SMEs, as well as microenterprises, which find themselves in the most difficult situation, should receive loan deferments from banks for the next six months, Putin said .

“As for bank loans, small and medium-sized companies, microenterprises, which find themselves in a difficult situation, should receive loans deferments for the next 6 months,” he said. According to him, small and medium-sized enterprises now face objective difficulties – decline in orders and in revenue. He noted that such companies need help to continue their activities, and therefore to keep their employees.

All social benefits over the next six months would remain without need for periodic confirmation of eligibility during that time, an additional 5,000 rubles will be provided for each child under the age of three from April through June to families receiving maternity benefits, benefits for children aged three to seven will begin earlier, and unemployment insurance and sick leave at least equal to the minimum wage will be provided at least through the end of the year.

Starting this week, Moscow is on lockdown with residents only allowed out of their homes to obtain groceries and medical care. Essential workers will need official permits to move around. According to RT correspondent Murad Gazdiev:

Only people with city-issued “quarantine passes” (doctors, officials, store workers etc) will be allowed to move around the city (to and from work).

As of last Friday, the number of cases in the country had risen by almost 200 to 1.036, with 4 deaths. By Monday, there were 1,840 confirmed cases with 16 deaths. 194,353 people, mostly Russians returning from abroad, were in medically supervised quarantine.

Other legislation related to the pandemic has passed the Russian parliament, including laws that provide for fines on those who are caught breaking the quarantine as well as harsh punishments of those who disseminate false information or fake cures for the virus. The media watchdog for the OSCE raised the following concerns:

VIENNA, 31 March 2020 – The OSCE Representative on Freedom of the Media, Harlem Désir, expressed his deep concerns today about amendments to the Russian legislation, imposing up to five years in prison, for spreading false information about the COVID-19 pandemic.

The amendments were approved by the State Duma and by the Federation Council of the Russian Federation today. They toughen liability and punishments for the dissemination of false information that could threaten the life and safety of citizens. They were made both in the Code of Administrative Offenses and in the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation. The amendments include punishments for the spread of false information about measures that the authorities take to ensure the safety of the population and territories.

“I share the concern of the Russian Duma to combat the dissemination of false information related to the current health crisis,” the Representative said. “However, the amendments to the Code of Administrative offense and to the Criminal Code, as envisaged, pose a risk of undue restriction on the work of journalists and of self-censorship for media actors trying to inform the public.”

“I call for a greater consideration of the principles of necessity and proportionality in the new amendments. The amendments should also clearly guarantee that the right of the media to report on the pandemic will not be constrained by the new legislation, which should only aim at combating intentional disinformation that is detrimental to citizens’ health. The media and independent journalists have an important role to play in the fight against disinformation, especially online, and they should not be unduly restrained in their reporting on the pandemic,” said Désir.

In a telephone call on Monday with Trump, Putin offered pandemic-related medical aid to the U.S., which Trump accepted. Here is what RT reported yesterday (emphasis mine):

A cargo plane loaded with medical supplies and protection equipment may depart for the US by the end of Tuesday, the Kremlin said, after a phone call between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The issue of protective gear was raised during the Monday phone talks, with Putin asking if the US needed help and Trump accepting, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Tuesday.

Moscow suggested the aid in anticipation that the US will be able to return the favor if necessary, once its manufacturers of medical and protective equipment catch up with demand, Peskov said.

On March 20th, Iranian president Hassan Rouhani made a direct appeal to the American people to end the sanctions against Iran so that it can provide better assistance to its citizens in the fight against the Covid-19 pandemic. The virus has hit the Persian country particularly hard with over 35,000 confirmed cases and over 2,500 deaths as of Saturday. Over the last week, the UN and several countries throughout the world, including Russia and China, have called on the U.S. to end the sanctions on humanitarian grounds in the midst of the pandemic.

Rouhani sent the following message via his official website:

In the Name of God, the Compassionate the Merciful

On behalf of the great Iranian nation, I write to the people of the United States of America on the occasion of the Iranian New Year (Nowruz). The coronavirus outbreak has endangered the health of—and even presented a considerable threat to—humanity with no distinction as to nationality, or gender or religious backgrounds. This presents an opportune moment to further contemplate our common pains and our human principles. 

Today, all of humankind feels apprehensive toward the future; a future threatened in every aspect; be it health, business, and even social relationships and the way of life. The level of unpredictability and uncertainty is simply unprecedented. It is self-evident that our success in what is likely to be a long fight depends on the spiritual and heartfelt affinity of all human beings. The international defense that we have to mount will not be successful without camaraderie on the part of the whole of humankind. Today, instead of soldiers belonging to different armies, human soldiers, donning similar unicolor uniforms belonging to no particular country, are selflessly and altruistically at war against the enemy of humans across the globe. In this common fight, we all belong to one front. We all seek to prevail over our common enemy: a deadly virus. With this enemy, in contrast to other issues, we have no difference of views, and we do not diverge on its nature, its definition and its destructive consequences for the whole of humanity.

Full message here.

Below is a link to Part 3 of the TASS news agency’s interview with Vladimir Putin on 20 topics. Unfortunately, I’m unable to embed the videos.

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62854