The EU has announced that it will ban RT and Sputnik. According to Politico EU:
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced Sunday that Kremlin-backed RT, formerly known as Russia Today, and Sputnik, would be banned in the EU.
“We will ban the Kremlin’s media machine in the EU. The state-owned Russia Today and Sputnik, and their subsidiaries, will no longer be able to spread their lies to justify Putin’s war,” she said.
“We are developing tools to ban their toxic and harmful disinformation in Europe,” von der Leyen added, without providing more details.
I would have quoted from RT’s article about this but I’m now having trouble accessing RT’s website.
The OSCE is reporting that in Russia, media outlets that don’t toe the official narrative are being threatened with censorship as well:
On 26 February the Russian media regulatory agency Roskomnadzor (Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media), under the threat of hefty fines and blocking, demanded that at least 10 media outlets, including Ekho Moskvy, InoSMI, Mediazona, The New Times, Dozhd, Svobodnaya Pressa, Krym.Realii, Novaya Gazeta, Jurnalist and Lenizdat, remove materials about the war in Ukraine. Roskomnadzor reportedly said that these media outlets published “false information” about the shelling of Ukrainian cities by the Russian armed forces and the death of Ukrainian civilians, as well as materials in which the Russia’s ongoing military operation is called an attack, an invasion, or refers to a declaration of war.
Putin doesn’t bluff. I’ve noted this to people in the past. Other really smart and experienced Russia experts – far more experienced and knowledgeable than me – have pointed this out. Did we really forget this? Did we really think he was bluffing?
I don’t think I thought he was bluffing. I thought that there were a host of other “military-technical measures” that Russia could take to pressure the west and increasingly show that it meant business about its interests. I also thought that if Russia took military action in Ukraine, it would be limited to securing the entire Donbas area decisively and likely in response to a significant provocation. But as we all now know, that’s not what happened.
On Monday, February 14th, Putin had a televised meeting with his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, in which Lavrov stated that he didn’t think diplomacy had been exhausted and advised to continue. Putin agreed. A week later, Putin signed the Duma decree recognizing the DPR and LPR which also allowed the use of military force. Three days later, he ordered the invasion of Ukraine.
Between the week of 2/14 and 2/21, it appears that something tipped Putin’s thinking into this decision. Something during that time served as the straw that broke the camel’s back. Some have suggested that it was Zelensky’s implicit threat of developing nuclear weapons during his Munich Security Conference speech on February 19th. The threat of nuclear acquisition was indeed mentioned by Putin in his address announcing the invasion of Ukraine:
“I would like to additionally emphasise the following. Focused on their own goals, the leading NATO countries are supporting the far-right nationalists and neo-Nazis in Ukraine, those who will never forgive the people of Crimea and Sevastopol for freely making a choice to reunite with Russia.
They will undoubtedly try to bring war to Crimea just as they have done in Donbass, to kill innocent people just as members of the punitive units of Ukrainian nationalists and Hitler’s accomplices did during the Great Patriotic War. They have also openly laid claim to several other Russian regions.
If we look at the sequence of events and the incoming reports, the showdown between Russia and these forces cannot be avoided. It is only a matter of time. They are getting ready and waiting for the right moment. Moreover, they went as far as aspire to acquire nuclear weapons. We will not let this happen.” [Emphasis mine]
Dmitry Rogozin, the head of Roscosmos, Russia’s state space corporation, also discussed this threat on a Russian news talk show this past Saturday, asserting that Ukraine has the scientific and technical resources for creating ballistic missiles:
“[T]hey are seeking to create their own ballistic systems which are really capable of delivering a strike on our territory…Ukraine has been developing combat missile systems lately…These are Grom systems, and in general it is not a big problem for any design bureau to increase the distance from 300 kilometers and beyond. There are other systems which actually are intermediate-range systems [with a distance] of up to 2,000 kilometers. In fact, this is a real threat to Russia, up to the Ural Mountains.”
At this point, we can’t know for sure what it was that finally precipitated Putin’s fateful decision. For now, we can only speculate. But we can observe the fact that this is a departure from Putin’s previous actions when it comes to the use of military force over the past 15 years. The operations in Georgia, Crimea, the Donbas (prior to 2022) and Syria were all relatively measured and on behalf of a limited objective. They were operations that did not see massive casualties or a protracted presence that would lead to a potential quagmire. That’s why me and many other analysts were caught on the back foot with this move by Putin. The cost/benefit analysis for this just didn’t seem to make sense at this time.
The economic costs are already looking to be significant and a previously fractured west is now seemingly rallying around the US/NATO flag far more than before – consequences that are not in Russia’s interests.
It also doesn’t seem to fit very well with Putin’s legalistic nature and his past finger-wagging at US/NATO for its flouting of the UN charter and international law. A lawyer by training, Putin has always been very adept at finding legalisms to justify his actions both domestically and internationally. He once spoke of the tyranny of the law as his governing style. I suppose he could bring up the Kosovo precedent or humanitarian intervention doctrine that the west has tried to use to justify its bogus military actions. But it seems rather unconvincing.
Perhaps this will end soon and the costs in blood will not have been too much. But the scale of this operation leaves far more potential for nasty unintended consequences than many of the other military-technical, diplomatic or economic measures that could have been taken to pressure the west, including taking control of the entire Donbas region.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, for his part, is literally out of central casting as a relatable underdog trying to defend himself against a bigger foe after being suckered into the fight by his fair-weather friends who have their own agenda. So far, he’s playing the role much better than anyone imagined and many on the sidelines are rooting for him, while Putin is losing any benefit of the doubt that some wanted to give him.
An experienced fellow Russia watcher once commented to me years ago that Putin seems to have a knack for pulling a rabbit out of his hat when confronted with certain geopolitical problems. Let’s hope for everyone’s sake that he has another rabbit left to pull out.
Earlier today, Russian media reported that Ukrainian president Zelensky ultimately declined talks with Russia due to what he called terms of “capitulation” from Moscow. According to RT:
Russia’s military operation in Ukraine is continuing after the country’s leadership declined to negotiate, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Saturday.
President Vladimir Putin previously ordered the Russian troops to halt their advance on Friday, awaiting a response from Kiev, Moscow said. It added that the offensive continued on Saturday.
Alexey Arestovich, an adviser at Zelensky’s office, confirmed to Ukrainian media that Kiev has declined the talks with Russia, citing the “terms” put forward by Moscow through intermediaries. “It was an attempt to force us into capitulation,” he said, without elaborating.
Zelensky may have publicly shown interest in peace talks with Russia as a ploy to get the west to provide more substantive support. Germany has announced that it has reversed its long time position and is now getting ready to send weapons to Ukraine. Der Spiegel reported:
The federal government wants to deliver 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 “Stinger” surface-to-air missiles from Bundeswehr stocks to Ukraine “as soon as possible” . This was announced by Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD).
Even more concerning, it is just now being reported that Germany has finally agreed to remove Russia from the SWIFT banking system. According to BBC News, the cutoff from SWIFT will initially only involve some Russian banks but no further details on which banks were provided:
The measures agreed by the US, UK, Europe and Canada also include restricting the Russian central bank’s international reserves, the nations said in a joint statement.
This comes after an emotional speech given earlier by Zelensky calling for immediate EU membership for Ukraine and Russia’s removal from SWIFT. Germany had reportedly been one of the holdouts on this decision, along with Hungary. According to Euronews:
On his Twitter account, Zelenskyy shared he was receiving “support calls” from several European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, Swiss President Ignazio Cassis and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who he said offered “concrete assistance to Ukraine”.
An earlier misunderstanding regarding a missed call from Italian PM Mario Draghi was also cleared up. Zelenskyy claimed that Draghi “in a phone conversation supported Russia’s disconnection from SWIFT” and promised defence assistance.
Bloomberg reports that Wall Street interests had advised the Biden administration not to cut Russia from SWIFT, arguing that the blowback on the U.S. could be dangerous:
Opponents of the idea passed along a warning: Booting Russia from the critical global system — which handles 42 million messages a day and serves as a lifeline to some of the world’s biggest financial institutions — could backfire, sending inflation higher, pushing Russia closer to China and shielding financial transactions from scrutiny by the West. It might also encourage the development of a SWIFT alternative that could eventually damage the supremacy of the U.S. dollar.
According to Russian news agency TASS, Ukrainian president Zelensky’s press secretary on Saturday has publicly stated that Zelensky has agreed to peace talks with Putin to negotiate a ceasefire:
KIEV, February 26. /TASS/. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has accepted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s proposal and is ready to negotiate peace and a ceasefire, Zelensky’s press secretary Sergey Nikiforov said on Saturday.
“I have to refute allegations that we have refused to have talks. Ukraine has always been and is ready to negotiate peace and a ceasefire. It is our permanent position. We have accepted the Russian president’s proposal,” he wrote on his Facebook account.
According to Nikoforov, consultations are underway about the place and time of the negotiations. The sooner talks begin, the more chances there will be to restore normal life, he noted.
Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said earlier that Putin was ready to send a delegation to Minsk for talks with Ukraine. Later, he said that in response to the initiative to hold talks in the Belarusian capital city the Ukrainian side suggested Warsaw as a possible venue and still later lost contact.
RT has reported that Kiev requested Israel to serve as a mediator:
Ukraine’s Ambassador to Israel Yevgen Korniychuk told the New York Times that Tel Aviv has yet to respond. “They didn’t say no. They are trying to figure out where they are in this chess play,” he said, adding “We do believe that Israel is the only democratic state in the world that has great relations with both Ukraine and Russia.”
This turn of events follows a video appeal Zelensky made on Friday to Putin for negotiations. According to CNN:
Speaking in Russian, Zelensky said: “I would like to address the President of the Russian Federation once again. There is fighting all over Ukraine now. Let’s sit down at the negotiation table to stop the people’s deaths.”
The CNN report further stated that Chinese leader Xi confirmed Putin’s willingness to negotiate with Kiev after a telephone call with the Russian president on Friday:
In a phone call Friday with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Putin said Russia is “willing to conduct high-level negotiations” with Ukraine, according to Chinese state broadcaster CCTV.
The U.S., for it’s part, extended an offer to evacuate Zelensky from Kiev for his own safety, which Zelensky declined, stating he wanted to remain in the capital. However, the U.S. State Department does not appear to support the proposed negotiations between the Ukrainian and Russian presidents as Reuters reported that US State Department spokesman Ned Price said:
“Now we see Moscow suggesting that diplomacy take place at the barrel of a gun, or as Moscow’s rockets, mortars, artillery target the Ukrainian people,” he said. “This is not real diplomacy. Those are not the conditions for real diplomacy.”
Let’s hope that these talks take place as soon as possible and a resolution is found to stop the war.
