All posts by natyliesb

Paul Goble: In 2024, Many Ukrainians who had Switched to Using Ukrainian have Shifted Back to Using Russian, according to Kyiv’s Language Ombudsman

Paul Goble, Website, Website, 5/2/25

Staunton, May 2 – The “powerful impulse” which led Ukrainians to stop using the Russian language has slowed and in some areas been reversed, according to a detailed, 341-page report by the Ukrainian government’s language ombudsman Taras Kremena. And in some regions and cities, the situation is becoming extremely unsatisfactory.

The report is available online at mova-ombudsman.gov.ua/storage/app/sites/14/Звіт 2023/zvit-2024-1.pdf and is summarized at https://ehorussia.com/new/node/32554). For a Moscow commentary thrilled by this development, see fondsk.ru/news/2025/05/04/khotyat-li-zhiteli-ukrainy-chtoby-ikh-deti-uchili-russkiy-yazyk.html.

According to the Ukrainian experts, this trend reflects the tendency of younger Ukrainians to follow the behavior of their parents rather than to be informed by government efforts to promote the use of Ukrainian. And they urge the government to do more to ensure that ever more Ukrainians will identify Ukrainian as their native language.

Gilbert Doctorow: Travel Notes: installment four

By Gilbert Doctorow, Website, 5/7/25

In this installment I turn attention to what was always a mainstay of my reports on visits to Russia since the onset of the Special Military Operation: the household shopping basket and, more broadly, how the consumer is faring in a country subject to the world’s most severe sanctions and in the midst of a war that has placed military production at the center of economic planning while disrupting traditional supply chains.

Food

Put simply, most any food item you would find in any given niche (economy, upper middle class or elite) of the supermarkets in Belgium is available in the counterpart category retailer here in Russia, though sourcing is usually very different.

The difference in provenance is most apparent in fruits and vegetables. High quality leaf lettuce, pre-packed mixtures of baby spinach and other young shoots, cucumbers and cherry tomatoes are grown locally in greenhouses year round. Green celery comes from Iran. Persimmons, summer quality watermelons and other fruits arrive these days from Azerbaijan. The quality of these imports is premium.

In addition there are chains of small food shops spread out across the urban residential communities selling specialty items that are specific to Russian consumer taste like fresh, non-sterilized salmon caviar in the Fish and Caviar network or fragrant giant strawberries delivered from Greece to your corner green grocer. Parenthetically I note that such strawberry sourcing does not work within the EU, where Spain seems to have a monopoly for its less glamorous fruit.

In dairy products, the departure of Danone from the Russian market has had very little impact on what is on your breakfast table. In virtually the same plastic containers and with very similar labeling you can find your Activia equivalent. Despite all the political posturing against Russia, the Finnish cheese maker Valio maintains a respectable presence in the dairy fridges. Otherwise, if you put branded cheeses aside, the product assortment in this category is as good or better than it ever was.

In beverages, Russians who cannot live without Evian or San Pellegrino water can buy their fill in upper middle class supermarkets. Many leading Scotch whiskeys are here at prices comparable to Belgium even if the shelves give much more space to no-name whiskeys at a fraction of the cost. And even niche items like Campari liqueur or Baileys are on sale, though the Baileys is selling at a 30 per cent premium to the Belgian retail price.

The selection of imported canned or bottled beers can be astonishing. To be sure, the overall volume of beer imports is down substantially from before the war, but those who must have their Belgian or German white beer or triple strength monastery brews are still spoiled for choice in our neighborhood.

As for wines, the Italian, French, Chilean, South African and even Australian producers remain well represented. The big ongoing change is the presentation on store shelves of high quality Crimean ‘estate bottled’ red wines in the 8 to 10 euro range, though those in search of prestige bottles will find Russian wines also in the 20 or 30 euro price category in ordinary supermarkets, not only at specialized wine merchants where prices can be multiples of the aforementioned. For lovers of dessert wines, the port varieties on offer from the Crimean producer Massandra present in every supermarket are a must: for 5 euros you get a product that would cost 5 times that if it were labeled Portuguese and sold in Brussels.

As for nonfood items in supermarkets,most brands familiar to US and European consumers remain stocked on the shelves. Tide detergent is here. Regarding many other products, if the producer has left the Russian market his production lines remain active in the hands of the Russian acquirers, selling the same goods under a new name.

Having said all that and only mentioned price a couple of times above, I can now address the question of price inflation: whereas in past reports I said that prices were fairly stable, on this trip it became clear that prices have risen appreciably. Just how much depends on the given product and given producer’s market leverage.

The inflation since my visit 5 months ago is uneven across product categories, reaching perhaps 30% on some items like Russian farmed lake trout or salmon from the Karelia region, which have risen to above Belgian levels. This is noteworthy when wild fish like flounder caught off Murmansk are selling at prices three times lower than in Europe. Yet, in fairness, it must be said that prices on most products that I examined have risen only in the single digits. Still, overall the price rises will be felt in family budgets.

Electronics

We cannot live without our electronic gadgets and this is as true of Russia as anywhere else. Accordingly, I spent some time at the DNS shop closest to my home. DNS is the country’s largest electronics retailer. It was formed several years ago following a market consolidation. I not only looked but also purchased there a new smart phone and new notebook computer.

There can be no question that their product assortment has changed dramatically from what it was before the start of the Special Military Operation, when many of the world’s major manufacturers were represented here. Even on my last visit there were some Western notebook computers from old stock still available for purchase. Not now. Nearly all their computers, telephones and related paraphernalia are produced in China. The leading Chinese international brands like Huawei left this market under threat of U.S. secondary sanctions. So DNS is selling goods supplied by less known companies that are virtually unknown in the West. Are they good? No doubt, otherwise DNS would not offer a money-back one year guarantee. But it is unlikely they are as good as the Hewlett Packard or Alcatel products they replace.

As regards computers, I said above ‘nearly all’ are Chinese. The DNS store had two notebooks on offer priced at half the cheapest Chinese entries and looking very good. These, the salesman told me are made to DNS order on assembly lines in Russia and Belarus and are sold under the DEXP brand name. They run on Intel Celeron chips, have the Microsoft Operating System installed at the factory and are loaded with the Microsoft 365 version Word and Excel software. The all-in price was 220 euros and they come with the aforementioned one year money-back guarantee which can be extended to two years for a modest fee.

I will not bore readers with the hard disk Gigabyte capacity and the like. Suffice it to say that the performance characteristics of this entry level product is sufficient for the needs of your average journalist, myself included.

For those among you who will look for high performance Western computers, Russia today has an answer to your needs but not in the mass market retailers like DNS which must have high volume and regular product deliveries to keep all their shops across the country well stocked. This niche is satisfied by stand-alone computer and electronics shops that buy their products via parallel trading in one-off import lots. A mark-up, of course, is added for this service, but the customers are price-proof and get what they want.

As I said, I also purchased a medium performance Chinese smart phone sold under the HONOR brand name. We are now using it and are very satisfied with our 110 euro outlay.

DNS stores also stock home appliances like dishwashers, refrigerators, washing machines, stoves and the like. Here the Western manufacturers remain present though Chinese and Russian brands are predominant. Here again, any consumer who is ready to pay the equivalent of the purchase price of a small car to get a prestige stove or refrigerator to impress fellow oligarchs can find what he or she needs in stores offering imports from parallel trading.

CARS

Not a great deal has changed in the car market since my visit 5 months ago. Chinese market penetration of new car sales had already reached and passed the 50% mark then. At that time, when more and more Chinese manufacturers entered the market and were setting up distribution, their ability to supply spare parts in a timely way was under question.

Accordingly, on this visit I asked one taxi driver about his Geely, and he said he had no problems with the car or with servicing and spare parts.

There are, of course, a lot of cars on the road in Petersburg that were bought before the imposition of Western sanctions. When I asked the owner of the Peugeot taxi which was taking us downtown how he was faring with spare parts, he said he had no problems. To his knowledge all spares for his car were being sourced in China which is not only reseller but also for some items is an original manufacturer of Peugeot parts. If he is right then the Chinese have stepped into the void left by Western carmakers for maintaining their own vehicles.

Russia Matters: Russia Continues Advance in Ukraine, But Gains Constituted 1% So Far In 2025

Russia Matters, 5/23/25

  1. In the week preceding May 20, 2025, Russian forces gained 55 square miles of Ukrainian territory (just over 2 Manhattan islands), a notable gain over its 33-square mile advance over each of the previous two weeks, according to the May 21, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s armed forces lost 1 square mile of their control in Russia’s Kursk and Belgorod regions, leaving them with a total of 9 square miles, according to the card, which analyzes ISW data. In the past month (April 22–May 20, 2025), Russia gained 135 square miles, according to that data. According to RM’s analysis of data posted by Ukraine’s DeepState OSINT group, the total amount of Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia increased by 0.9% so far this year. See Table 1 for more estimates.*
  2. Donald Trump’s May 19 call with Vladimir Putin yielded no breakthrough on the Russia-Ukraine war, with Putin rejecting an unconditional full ceasefire again and Trump asserting that, going forward, Moscow and Kyiv will need to negotiate conditions directly, perhaps in the Vatican, in what Financial Times reporters interpreted as a signal that Washington is “stepping back from a role as a mediator.” While the White House did not explicitly confirm Trump’s disengagement publicly, the U.S. leader did observe after the call with Putin: “This isn’t my war.” When briefing European leaders by phone on the outcome of his conversation with Putin, Trump said that Putin isn’t ready to end the war in Ukraine because he thinks he is winning, according to the Wall Street Journal.1 Since the call, Russia has a rejected the Vatican as a venue for further talks while advancing to “final stages” the “memorandum” on its terms for a future peace treaty, which Putin promised to come up with during his call with Trump and which his diplomats intend to discuss with their Ukrainian counterparts in Istanbul.
  3. Ukrainians should not bet on some kind of “white swan” event that would “bring peace to Ukraine in the borders of 1991 or 2022,” ex-commander of Ukraine’s armed forces Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi said at a recent public forum in Ukraine. Ukraine needs to transform the nature of the current war from that of attrition to one that minimizes the expenditure of Ukraine’s human and economic resources, he said. Given the “huge deficit of human resources and a catastrophic economic situation,” “we can only talk about a high-tech war for survival, where a minimum of human resources, a minimum of economic means are used to achieve maximum benefit,” according to Zaluzhnyi.2

Intellinews: Russia’s GDP contracts in 1Q25 in real terms for the first time since the war in Ukraine started

Intellinews, 5/6/25

Russia’s economy contracted by 0.3% quarter on quarter in 1Q25 in seasonally adjusted terms, marking the first quarterly decline since 2Q22, Vedomosti daily reports citing estimates by Raiffeisenbank.

As followed closely by bne IntelliNews, the signs of a slowdown in Russia are clear, with analysts guessing whether the economy overheated by the full-scale military invasion of Ukraine is headed for a “soft” or “hard” landing.

This week the Ministry of Economic Development said that Russia’s economy grew by 1.7% year-on-year in 1Q25 in unadjusted terms. But in seasonally adjusted terms the GDP growth in 1Q25 was actually negative, according to Raiffeisenbank and other analysts surveyed by Vedomosti.

Renaissance Capital also wrote in the note for clients on May 6 that “seasonally adjusted GDP growth in 1Q25 was negative relative to 4Q24”.

The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) predicted a slowdown for this year since it issued a pessimistic medium-term macroeconomic outlook at the start of August last year. In an effort to bring down sticky high inflation it introduced a series of non-monetary policy measures last year to artificially cool the economy, but it appears it may have overshot as external shocks of falling oil prices, which dropped below $60 a barrel a day earlier, and the chaos the Trump administration tariff policy have bounced back to hit the Russian economy.

A debate has been raging over the last nine months. Some economists believe that Russia will be hit by a wave of bankruptcies later this year, while others say the economy is more robust than it appears. However, the latest results suggest the centre of gravity has shifted to the negative end of the spectrum. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov almost admitted as much earlier this week when he tripled the federal budget deficit forecast for this year and dropped the outlook for average oil prices in 2025 to a mere $56 per barrel from $62.2.

Bloomberg’s Alexander Isakov estimates the contraction at 0.6%–0.8% q/q, while T-Investments’ Sofya Donets puts the decline at up to 1.5%. The most vulnerable sectors in the ongoing slowdown are industrial production, extraction, and transportation, which all are key export-oriented industries.

Most analysts surveyed by Vedomosti expect a near-zero or slightly negative growth path to persist in 2Q25, with Russia’s economy continuing to teeter on the edge of a technical recession, with near-zero or negative q/q growth expected through mid-year.

This contrasts with the recent bullish outlook published by EconMin.

Trump DOJ Adopts Policy Permitting Journalist Arrests

By Kevin Gosztola, The Dissenter, 4/26/25

The following article was made possible by paid subscribers of The Dissenter. Become a subscriber with this discount offer and support journalism that stands up to attacks on freedom of the press.

United States Attorney General Pam Bondi ended a Justice Department (DOJ) policy that explicitly discouraged federal prosecutors from forcing journalists to reveal their sources and other sensitive information, including information obtained from potential leaks. 

With new guidelines, members of the news media who refuse to cooperate with prosecutors could be arrested for contempt. If accused of contempt, they could be fined or jailed.

The move by Bondi comes as Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has “referred” three alleged “intelligence leakers” to the DOJ for criminal prosecution. 

According to Gabbard, one of those individuals allegedly leaked to the Washington Post. The policy change effectively gives the green light to prosecutors to subpoena Post reporters and other staff.

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In October 2022, Attorney General Merrick Garland adopted changes to “news media guidelines” that were celebrated by journalist associations and press freedom groups. As the Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press (RCFP) described, for the first time, guidelines prohibited prosecutors “from using subpoenas or other investigative tools against journalists who possess and publish classified information obtained in newsgathering, with only narrow exceptions.”

On April 25, 2025, Bondi issued a memo [PDF] that voided those changes. The memo informs all DOJ employees that members of the news media “must answer subpoenas,” and it also applied to court orders and search warrants intended to “compel the production of information and testimony.” Bondi will approve all “efforts to question or arrest members of the news media.”

The memo further suggests that Bondi will only approve subpoenas, court orders, or search warrants when the information sought is “essential to a successful prosecution” and prosecutors have “made all reasonable attempts to obtain the information from alternative sources.” Yet the DOJ has wide discretion to conduct investigations however it chooses, and the guidelines hardly mean that Bondi and the DOJ will not trample over the rights of journalists.

Bondi cast this development as a necessary part of winning an information war against President Donald Trump’s political opponents within and outside of the government. Specifically, she accused President Joe Biden’s administration of abusing “Garland’s overly broad procedural protections for media allies by engaging in selective leaks in support of failed lawfare campaigns.” 

“The leaks have not abated since President Trump’s second inauguration, including leaks of classified information,” Bondi added. “This Justice Department will not tolerate unauthorized disclosures that undermine President Trump’s policies, victimize government agencies, and cause harm to the American people.”

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Quoting a stunning executive order from Trump that singled out a former official as an “egregious leaker,” Bondi echoed the assertion that disclosures of information related to foreign policy, national security, or “government effectiveness” could be characterized as “treasonous and as possibly violating the Espionage Act.” 

Bondi stated, “The perpetrators of these leaks aid our foreign adversaries by spilling sensitive and sometimes classified information on to the Internet. The damage is significant and irreversible. Accountability, including criminal prosecutions, is necessary to set a new course.”

Garland’s protections for reporters stemmed from a backlash to news reports, which revealed that Trump’s first administration had secretly subpoenaed the communications records of reporters at the Post, CNN, and the New York Times. 

In fact, after Biden assumed office in 2021, the DOJ did not immediately stop Trump’s retaliation against the press. DOJ officials even imposed an “unprecedented” gag order against Times executives. 

DOJ officials eventually met with media representatives to tamp down outrage and agreed to limits on national security leak investigations. The overture was similar to Attorney General Eric Holder’s response to widespread media disapproval in 2013, when it became known that President Barack Obama’s administration had seized records from “more than 20 separate telephone lines assigned to [the Associated Press] and its journalists.”

Biden's Legacy: The World Is More Unsafe For Journalists
President Joe Biden (Photo from the White House and in the public domain.)

Throughout the Biden administration, a coalition of groups recognized that the protections for press were subject to change under future administrations. They urged the U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate to codify the changes into law by passing the PRESS Act, which would have established a federal reporter’s shield law.

The House passed the PRESS Act in January 2024, however, despite bipartisan support, the shield law languished in the Senate for months as Democrats did nothing to move the bill for a vote.

In April 2024, when White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre was asked if Biden supported the PRESS Act, she uttered a platitude: “[J]ournalism is not a crime. We’ve been very clear about that.” But the White House refused to back legislation that would protect reporters from the type of attacks on their newsgathering that Bondi just authorized.  

After Vice President Kamala Harris lost the presidential election to Trump, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and other Democrats, like Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Dick Durbin, suddenly recognized the need to pass the PRESS Act. It was too late. Trump came out against the shield law, instructing Republicans to “kill” the bill. Republican Senator Tom Cotton obeyed Trump and blocked the bill, as he had done during a previous session of Congress. 

“Every Democrat who put the PRESS Act on the back burner when they had the opportunity to pass a bipartisan bill codifying journalist-source confidentiality should be ashamed,” Freedom of the Press Foundation advocacy director Seth Stern said, after Bondi revoked press protections. “Everyone predicted this would happen in a second Trump administration, yet politicians in a position to prevent it prioritized empty rhetoric over putting up a meaningful fight.”

“Because of them, a president who threatens journalists with prison rape for protecting their sources and says reporting critically on his administration should be illegal can and almost certainly will abuse the legal system to investigate and prosecute his critics and the journalists they talk to,” Stern added. 

Trump’s second term already presents more danger to freedom of the press than his first term, particularly because there is nothing constraining his administration. They are hellbent on weaponizing government and engaging in the kind of lawfare that they fervently believe the Biden administration waged against them. 

As The Dissenter thoroughly recounted when Biden’s term ended, his administration laid the foundation for further attacks on the press by Trump. The Biden administration continued the unprecedented Espionage Act prosecution against WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, and in Florida, FBI agents raided the home newsroom of Timothy Burke in 2023. The following year, the DOJ charged Burke as an economic cybercriminal. (A jury trial is scheduled for September 8, 2025.) 

Those guilty of journalism could have had the ability to go to court and fight back against Trump’s war on the press. But now, as Trump officials spread propaganda to demonize reporters and whip up public support for violating their First Amendment rights, there is little that the news media can do to stop petty and vindictive officials eager to target them and their sources.