YouTube link to Kim Iversen’s analysis here.

Kremlin’s statement on Trump-Putin Phone call, Kremlin website, 3/18/25

The leaders continued a detailed and frank exchange of views on the situation around Ukraine. Vladimir Putin expressed gratitude to Donald Trump for his desire to help achieve the noble goal of ending hostilities and human losses.

Having confirmed his fundamental commitment to a peaceful resolution of the conflict, the Russian President declared his readiness to thoroughly work out possible ways of settlement together with his American partners, which should be comprehensive, sustainable and long-term. And, of course, to take into account the absolute need to eliminate the root causes of the crisis, Russia’s legitimate interests in the field of security.

In the context of the US President’s initiative to introduce a 30-day truce, the Russian side outlined a number of significant points regarding ensuring effective control over a possible ceasefire along the entire line of combat contact, the need to stop forced mobilization in Ukraine and rearm the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Serious risks associated with the inability to negotiate of the Kyiv regime, which has repeatedly sabotaged and violated the agreements reached, were also noted. Attention was drawn to the barbaric terrorist crimes committed by Ukrainian militants against the civilian population of the Kursk region.

It was emphasized that the key condition for preventing the escalation of the conflict and working towards its resolution by political and diplomatic means should be a complete cessation of foreign military aid and the provision of intelligence information to Kyiv.

In connection with Donald Trump’s recent appeal to save the lives of Ukrainian servicemen surrounded in the Kursk region, Vladimir Putin confirmed that the Russian side is ready to be guided by humanitarian considerations and, in the event of surrender, guarantees the lives and decent treatment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers in accordance with Russian laws and international law.

During the conversation, Donald Trump put forward a proposal for the parties to the conflict to mutually refrain from strikes on energy infrastructure facilities for 30 days. Vladimir Putin responded positively to this initiative and immediately gave the Russian military the corresponding order.

The Russian President also responded constructively to Donald Trump’s idea of ​​implementing a well-known initiative concerning the safety of navigation in the Black Sea. It was agreed to begin negotiations to further elaborate specific details of such an agreement.

Vladimir Putin informed that on March 19, the Russian and Ukrainian sides will exchange prisoners – 175 for 175 people. In addition, as a gesture of goodwill, 23 seriously wounded Ukrainian servicemen who are being treated in Russian medical institutions will be transferred.

The leaders confirmed their intention to continue efforts to achieve a Ukrainian settlement in a bilateral mode, including taking into account the above-mentioned proposals of the US President. For this purpose, Russian and American expert groups are being created.

Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump also touched upon other issues on the international agenda, including the situation in the Middle East and the Red Sea region. Joint efforts will be made to stabilize the situation in crisis areas, establish cooperation on nuclear non-proliferation and global security issues. This, in turn, will contribute to improving the overall atmosphere of Russian-American relations. One positive example is the joint vote in the UN on the resolution regarding the Ukrainian conflict.

Mutual interest in normalizing bilateral relations was expressed in light of the special responsibility of Russia and the United States for ensuring security and stability in the world. In this context, a wide range of areas in which our countries could establish cooperation was considered. A number of ideas were discussed that are moving towards the development of mutually beneficial cooperation in the economy and energy sector in the future.

Donald Trump supported Vladimir Putin’s idea to organize hockey matches in the United States and Russia between Russian and American players playing in the NHL and KHL.

The presidents agreed to remain in contact on all issues raised.

By Jared Gans, The Hill, 2/24/25

Most voters want Ukraine to reach a settlement with Russia as the war between the two countries reaches its three-year anniversary, including a majority of Republicans, Democrats and independents, according to a new poll.

But the parties split on what the process to negotiate an end to the hostilities should look like, as Trump administration officials start to meet with Russian officials to discuss bringing the war to a conclusion, and separately negotiate a natural resources deal with Ukraine.

The Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll found that 72 percent of registered voters said want Ukraine to focus on negotiating a settlement over continuing the war, including 80 percent of Republicans, 73 percent of independents and 61 percent of Democrats.

Trump’s announcement of direct negotiations between the U.S. and Russia to end the war is overwhelmingly popular among Republicans with 85 percent in favor. A slight majority of independents favor that approach, while 60 percent of Democrats are opposed.

Almost six in 10 across parties said they oppose the Trump administration leaving Ukrainian leaders out of the negotiations, including 76 percent of Democrats and 64 percent of independents. But 62 percent of Republicans said they support leaving Ukraine out of the talks.

Democrats and independents are also both cool to leaving European leaders out of the discussions, while 69 percent of Republicans support it.

MSNBC cancels Joy Reid show as part of overhaul under new administration, Lester Holt to step down as anchor of ‘NBC Nightly News’

Three-quarters of Democrats and almost two-thirds of independents oppose Trump forcing Ukraine to make territorial concessions to end the war, while two thirds of Republicans support it.

Roughly two-thirds of Republicans, Democrats and independents say Ukraine should receive security guarantees from the U.S. if it makes concessions with Russia.

Mark Penn, chair of the Harris Poll, told The Hill that Americans “despise” Russian President Vladimir Putin but are “weary of the cost and longevity” of the war. He said most support efforts to try to end the war, even as they don’t trust Putin to abide by the terms.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who Trump has called a “dictator” who is doing a “terrible job,” said on Sunday that he would consider resigning from office as part of a peace agreement that had Ukraine joining NATO.

Mike Waltz, Trump’s national security adviser, reiterated on Monday that Ukraine joining NATO is “not back on the table” in talks to end the war. 

The Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey was conducted from Feb. 19 to 20 and surveyed 2,443 registered voters. It is a collaboration of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and the Harris Poll.

The survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. The margin of error is 2 percentage points.

The Bell, 3/17/25

On the eve of a phone call with Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin unveiled his latest overture to the United States. For the first time in three years of war, he signed an order on Monday allowing major US investment funds to sell their holdings of frozen Russian securities. The move comes as US media report the White House is looking at what carrots it can offer Moscow, with the potential recognition of Crimea as Russian territory on the table.

• Vladimir Putin has signed an order allowing ten investment funds from the US and UK to sell their assets in Russia. From the list of firms, it is clear the assets in question are Russian securities, in which non-resident investors held large stakes before the war. On 1 February 2022, non-residents owned around 20% of Russian government bonds (OFZs). Among those given the green light to sell are some of the largest Western funds that have invested in Russia, including Franklin Templeton, GMO, Jane Street and Baillie Gifford.
• Putin’s decision is a milestone: no Western investment fund has yet been able to pull out or sell securities stuck in Russia. They have not been nationalised, but the assets have been transferred to frozen so-called type-C escrow accounts, from which money cannot be withdrawn without permission from the Russian authorities. In total, these accounts had assets worth 500 billion rubles ($6.4 billion) in them as of March 2023, Bloomberg reported, citing Central Bank data.
• The buyer, listed in Putin’s order, is little-known New York-based hedge fund 683 Capital Partners. But they won’t hold onto them for long. Putin has also authorised two Russian legal entities, LLC Cepheus-2 and LLC Sovremennye Fonds Nedvizhimosti, former structures of Sber, which are most likely still connected with the state bank, to buy the assets from 683 Capital Partners.
• Who is 683 Capital Partners and why are they involved as a middle-man in the deal? According to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, at the end of 2024, 683 Capital Partners managed assets worth $1.6bn (a tiny amount in the hedge fund world), and had just 10 employees. The firm seems to have nothing to do with Russia. But The Bell immediately noticed that the founder and head of the fund, Ari Zweiman, studied at both Stanford and Harvard in exactly the same years as the head of RDIF, Kirill Dmitriev, who is now one of the negotiators with the Americans, focused on economy issues. In response to a question about his possible association with Zweiman, Dmitriev said: “I am not familiar, neither I nor RDIF has ever had any contacts with this fund.”
• The authorisation of these deals comes a day before a phone call between Putin and Trump, during which the two sides will discuss (1, 2) terms for ending the war in Ukraine. Trump himself said on Monday night that the conversation would take place in the morning (i.e. evening Moscow time). Semafor claimed that the White House is going through a variety of options on what to promise Vladimir Putin for agreeing to a ceasefire in Ukraine – including allegedly exploring the possibility of recognising Crimea as Russian.

Why the world should care

The scheme for selling the Russian assets of American investment funds described in Vladimir Putin’s order looks suspicious. Western funds for some reason sell their assets to an intermediary who will then resell the securities to a Russian entity. There can only be two good explanations for such a scheme: protecting the Western sellers from the threat of sanctions, and kickbacks for the intermediary players (quite possibly both).

By Andrew Korybko, Substack, 2/9/25

The EU would do well to indefinitely suspend Ukrainians’ visa-free access to the bloc after martial law ends.

Outgoing Polish President Andrzej Duda told the Financial Times that a crime wave could sweep across Europe after the Ukrainian Conflict ends if that country’s PTSD-afflicted troops spill into the bloc and engage in organized crime like their Soviet predecessors from the 1980s Afghan War did after 1991. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry swiftly reacted by denying that they could pose any such threat, pointing to how they didn’t between 2014-2022, and claiming that they’re actually a security asset for Europe. [https://www.ft.com/content/6d3b06f8-f5d4-4870-9b33-43bf4a651849]

Their three points are superficial though since traumatized troops anywhere in the world are much more prone to deviant behavior, the latest phase of the conflict has objectively been much more traumatizing than the prior one, and this therefore makes its veterans a security liability for Europe at the very least. Compounding the aforementioned risks is the fact that the US failed to track billions of dollars’ worth of weapons sent to Ukraine according to Reuters so some of these likely ended up on the black market.

The threat that Duda just drew attention to is thus a very credible and urgent one that should be taken seriously by all European stakeholders. This doesn’t mean that they need to foot part of the bill for Ukraine’s security and development like he strongly implied in his interview, but just that they should at the minimum indefinitely suspend its citizens’ visa-free access to the bloc otherwise traumatized veterans armed with illegally obtained US weapons might turn his warning into a prophecy.

The floodgates will open if the US succeeds in brokering a ceasefire like it’s arguably aiming to do for the purpose of prompting Ukraine into lifting marital law and therefore legally setting the stage for the next elections. Military-age Ukrainian males will then be able to freely leave to the EU unless the bloc indefinitely suspends their visa-free access. The arguments in favor of these restrictions far outweigh those against them from the perspective of European and Ukrainian national interests.

Europe already received several million low-wage laborers so it doesn’t need to risk the credible security consequences of accepting traumatized Ukrainian veterans just to obtain some more, while Ukraine needs as many of its refugees to return as possible after the conflict ends in order to rebuild. It goes without saying that Ukraine also can’t afford another large-scale exodus and thus has an interest in requesting that the EU indefinitely suspends their visa-free access to the bloc if it won’t do so on its own.

Keeping the border open to them would be a recipe for mutual disaster. There’s also the possibility that Poland takes the lead in unilaterally refusing to admit military-aged Ukrainian males after their country’s martial law is lifted just like it unilaterally decided to suspend asylum rights for some migrants last year. That could trigger a legal crisis within the bloc, especially if others like Hungary and Slovakia follow suit, which would be a worst-case political scenario at the time when the EU would need unity on Ukraine.

Poland’s ruling liberal-globalists, who are closely aligned with EU-leader Germany, might not have the political will to do that though but Hungary might and it could justify this based on Duda’s warning. Even if no member state makes such a dramatic move, some of their citizens might angrily agitate for this if their compatriots fall victim to PTSD-afflicted Ukrainian veteran criminal gangs. The issue deserves to be closely monitored since it’s a credible security risk that could have outsized consequences for the bloc.

YouTube link here.

Written transcript here.