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AP: Desertion threatens to starve Ukraine’s forces at a crucial time in its war with Russia

By SAMYA KULLAB and VOLODYMYR YURCHUK, AP, 11/29/24

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Desertion is starving the Ukrainian army of desperately needed manpower and crippling its battle plans at a crucial time in its war with Russia, which could put Kyiv at a clear disadvantage in future ceasefire talks.

Facing every imaginable shortage, tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops, tired and bereft, have walked away from combat and front-line positions to slide into anonymity, according to soldiers, lawyers and Ukrainian officials. Entire units have abandoned their posts, leaving defensive lines vulnerable and accelerating territorial losses, according to military commanders and soldiers.

Some take medical leave and never return, haunted by the traumas of war and demoralized by bleak prospects for victory. Others clash with commanders and refuse to carry out orders, sometimes in the middle of firefights.

“This problem is critical,” said Oleksandr Kovalenko, a Kyiv-based military analyst. “This is the third year of war, and this problem will only grow.”

Although Moscow has also been dealing with desertions, Ukrainians going AWOL have laid bare deeply rooted problems bedeviling their military and how Kyiv is managing the war, from the flawed mobilization drive to the overstretching and hollowing out of front-line units. It comes as the U.S. urges Ukraine to draft more troops, and allow for the conscription of those as young as 18.

The Associated Press spoke to two deserters, three lawyers, and a dozen Ukrainian officials and military commanders. Officials and commanders spoke on condition of anonymity to divulge classified information, while one deserter did so because he feared prosecution.

“It is clear that now, frankly speaking, we have already squeezed the maximum out of our people,” said an officer with the 72nd Brigade, who noted that desertion was one of the main reasons Ukraine lost the town of Vuhledar in October.

The troops who walk away

More than 100,000 soldiers have been charged under Ukraine’s desertion laws since Russia invaded in February 2022, according to the country’s General Prosecutor’s Office.

Nearly half have gone AWOL in the last year alone, after Kyiv launched an aggressive and controversial mobilization drive that government officials and military commanders concede has largely failed.

It’s a staggeringly high number by any measure, as there were an estimated 300,000 Ukrainian soldiers engaged in combat before the mobilization drive began. And the actual number of deserters may be much higher. One lawmaker with knowledge of military matters estimated it could be as high as 200,000.

Many deserters don’t return after being granted medical leave. Bone-tired by the constancy of war, they are psychologically and emotionally scarred. They feel guilt about being unable to summon the will to fight, anger over how the war effort is being led, and frustration that it seems unwinnable.

“Being quiet about a huge problem only harms our country,” said Serhii Hnezdilov, one of few soldiers to speak publicly about his choice to desert. He was charged shortly after the AP interviewed him in September.

Another deserter said he initially left his infantry unit with permission because he needed surgery. By the time his leave was up, he couldn’t bring himself to return.

He still has nightmares about the comrades he saw get killed.

“The best way to explain it is imagining you are sitting under incoming fire and from their (Russian) side, it’s 50 shells coming toward you, while from our side, it’s just one. Then you see how your friends are getting torn to pieces, and you realize that any second, it can happen to you,” he said.

“Meanwhile guys (Ukrainian soldiers) 10 kilometers (6 miles) away order you on the radio: ‘Go on, brace yourselves. Everything will be fine,’” he said.

Hnezdilov also left to seek medical help. Before undergoing surgery, he announced he was deserting. He said after five years of military service, he saw no hope of ever being demobilized, despite earlier promises by the country’s leadership.

“If there’s no end term (to military service), it turns into a prison – it becomes psychologically hard to find reasons to defend this country,” Hnezdilov said.

A growing problem for Kyiv

Desertion has turned battle plans into sand that slips through military commanders’ fingertips.

The AP learned of cases in which defensive lines were severely compromised because entire units defied orders and abandoned their positions.

“Because of a lack of political will and poor management of troops, especially in the infantry, we certainly are not moving in a direction to properly defend the territories that we control now,” Hnezdilov said.

Ukraine’s military recorded a deficit of 4,000 troops on the front in September owing largely to deaths, injuries and desertions, according to a lawmaker. Most deserters were among recent recruits.

The head of one brigade’s legal service who is in charge of processing desertion cases and forwarding them to law enforcement said he’s had many of them.

“The main thing is that they leave combat positions during hostilities and their comrades die because of it. We had several situations when units fled, small or large. They exposed their flanks, and the enemy came to these flanks and killed their brothers in arms, because those who stood on the positions did not know that there was no one else around,” the official said.

That is how Vuhledar, a hilltop town that Ukraine defended for two years, was lost in a matter of weeks in October, said the 72nd Brigade officer, who was among the very last to withdraw.

The 72nd was already stretched thin in the weeks before Vuhledar fell. Only one line battalion and two rifle battalions held the town near the end, and military leaders even began pulling units from them to support the flanks, the officer said. There should have been 120 men in each of the battalion’s companies, but some companies’ ranks dropped to only 10 due to deaths, injuries and desertions, he said. About 20% of the soldiers missing from those companies had gone AWOL.

“The percentage has grown exponentially every month,” he added.

Reinforcements were sent once Russia wised up to Ukraine’s weakened position and attacked. But then the reinforcements also left, the officer said. Because of this, when one of the 72nd Brigade battalions withdrew, its members were gunned down because they didn’t know no one was covering them, he said.

Still, the officer harbors no ill will toward deserters.

“At this stage, I do not condemn any of the soldiers from my battalion and others. … Because everyone is just really tired,” he said.

Charging deserters

Prosecutors and the military would rather not press charges against AWOL soldiers and do so only if they fail to persuade them to return, according to three military officers and a spokesperson for Ukraine’s State Investigative Bureau. Some deserters return, only to leave again.

Ukraine’s General Staff said soldiers are given psychological support, but it didn’t respond to emailed questions about the toll desertions are having on the battlefield.

Once soldiers are charged, defending them is tricky, said two lawyers who take such cases. They focus on their clients’ psychological state when they left.

“People cannot psychologically cope with the situation they are in, and they are not provided with psychological help,” said attorney Tetyana Ivanova.

Soldiers acquitted of desertion due to psychological reasons set a dangerous precedent because “then almost everyone is justified (to leave), because there are almost no healthy people left (in the infantry),” she said.

Soldiers considering deserting have sought her advice. Several were being sent to fight near Vuhledar.

“They would not have taken the territory, they would not have conquered anything, but no one would have returned,” she said.

Merkel memoir reveals fears about Ukraine joining NATO

RT, 11/21/24

Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel has defended her decision to block Ukraine’s path to NATO membership during her tenure, warning that she knew inviting Kiev into the US-led bloc would provoke Russia and endanger European security.

In excerpts from her book ‘Freedom: Memories 1954-2021’ published by Die Zeit on Thursday, Merkel writes about the pivotal 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest, where Ukraine and Georgia’s applications for Membership Action Plans (MAPs) were debated.

Merkel, then in her second term as Germany’s chancellor, opposed the move, arguing that it would antagonize Moscow without providing adequate security guarantees for the would-be applicants.

“I thought it was an illusion to assume that MAP status would have protected Ukraine or Georgia,” she explains. “Would NATO member states have responded militarily, with troops and material, if Russia attacked? Would I have received a mandate from the Bundestag to send German forces? I don’t think so.”

Merkel recounts an exchange with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who reportedly told her: “You won’t be chancellor forever. And then they’ll become members of NATO. And I want to prevent that.” She adds, “I thought: You won’t be president forever either. Nevertheless, my concerns about tensions with Russia at Bucharest remained unchanged.”

Critics argue that Merkel’s cautious approach emboldened Putin. Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky has been among her harshest detractors, accusing Germany of prioritizing its energy ties with Russia over Kiev’s security.

Merkel acknowledges that the summit’s ambiguous promise that Ukraine and Georgia “will become NATO members” was a provocation directed at Moscow. She describes it as a “battle cry,” adding that her hesitation was driven by the need to protect NATO’s collective security.

“New members must strengthen the alliance as a whole,” she writes, pointing out that only a minority of Ukrainians supported NATO membership at the time.

Despite stepping back from public life, Merkel has faced continued criticism for her Russia policies, including Berlin’s reliance on cheap Russian gas. In 2022, she rejected calls to apologize, insisting that her decisions were grounded in the realities of the time.

Ukraine’s accession to NATO has been a point of debate among the bloc’s current members. Many states have spoken in favor of Kiev eventually joining the organization; Estonia has argued that the move would provide the best security guarantee for Ukraine. 

However, several member states, led by the US and Germany, have reportedly been reluctant to formally extend an invitation to Kiev. Washington’s ambassador to the bloc, Julianne Smith, told Politico last month that it has not yet reached a point where it is ready to offer Ukraine membership. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has also expressed concern that such a move could lead to a full-scale war between Russia and NATO.

Ukraine is losing its children – cross-post from Moon of Alabama’s website

Excerpt from Moon of Alabama website, 11/28/24

*Prof. Geoffrey Roberts brought this to my attention – Natylie

Ukraine is losing its children. Demographers are sounding the alarm because of the mass departure of schoolchildren abroad

Experts began to talk about the second wave of emigration of Ukrainians to European countries. Now we are talking about traveling abroad for high school students, who go there not by themselves, but mainly with their parents. RegioNews found out what this threatens Ukraine in the future, given whether our country will have enough labor to restore the state after the end of the war.

Director of the distance school Vladimir Strashko published his observations on the mass departure of schoolchildren to other countries. According to him, over the past few months, he has been receiving an abnormal number of applications for completing Ukrainian schools remotely, saying that students are leaving Ukraine. Uladzimir Strashka also says that there are more and more students in the 11th grade who will not write the National Multi-Subject Test (replacing the EIT during martial law). In other words, this means that all these children do not plan to enter Ukrainian universities. Moreover, according to the director of the distance school, in some classes of Ukrainian schools, about 90% already refuse NMT.

What makes you want to leave Ukraine

Leading researcher at the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Lydia Tkachenko in a comment to RegioNews noted that parents decide to take their children out due to the terrible forecasts of some experts that there will be no heating or light in Ukraine.

“Therefore, parents, if they have the opportunity, try to take their children abroad, so that they, as they say, have a normal childhood at least for the period of this winter. In addition to everyday issues, there are also quite a lot of statements that almost children should already fight in the future. The general information tone greatly influences the decisions of parents, ” says Lydia Tkachenko.

At the same time, in a comment to RegioNews, Boris Krimer, a senior researcher at the Institute of Demography and Social Research, said that today it is actually very difficult to say how many people are leaving. They say that information from different sources is very different: the data from the European Union may be the same, and the data provided by the UN is also different, and from the Ukrainian border guards are completely different.

“In general, Ukrainians who take older children abroad consider it more profitable in the future, justified than staying in Ukraine. This may be related to the issue of safety, as well as forecasts for the coming winter, ” says Boris Krimer.

Will emigrants return

In general, if we take into account the mass departure of women with children after February 24, 2022, then the current outflow of Ukrainian schoolchildren abroad can already be safely called the second wave of emigration of Ukrainians. Of course, the Ukrainian state hopes that all Ukrainians will return home sooner or later, but whether this will happen en masse is a big question.

Boris Krimer, a senior researcher at the Institute of Demography and Social Research, says that whenever there is a migration flow, some people still come back.

“It all depends on how long the migration of the population will be and how much Ukrainians will take root abroad. If the fighting ends in Ukraine and it becomes safe, economic development begins, then at least some of the emigrants can be expected to return. I hope that Ukraine will still join the European Union and then it will be so that we will have one free space for the movement of people, ” says Creamer.

In turn, Lidia Tkachenko, a leading researcher at the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, notes that if there are many jobs in Ukraine with normal pay and working conditions, then of course Ukrainians who have left abroad will have more incentives to return to Ukraine.

“But many Ukrainians abroad now choose not even large fortunes and opportunities, but simply the opportunity to live in peace without explosions of all sorts and the like. For many, the sense of security may even outweigh the opportunity to get a position in Ukraine or a lot of money, ” says Lydia Tkachenko.

There is also a lot of discussion about how long it takes for Ukrainians to take root in the same Europe, after which they will not return to Ukraine. According to Borys Krimer, on the one hand, this is very individual, because even a year is enough for someone to take root, but of course, the longer a person stays abroad, the less desire they have to return to Ukraine later.

“For example, in the first year of a full-scale war, we estimated that 50% of those who went abroad would remain there, and 50% would still return. Then we focused on a variety of surveys. Today, the share of those who will not return is more than 50%, but this is again a situational thought. If, for example, the economic situation in the country where a particular Ukrainian is located worsens, he will be ready to return home. But the vector is really such that the longer people live in another country, the more they will have new connections, the more children will get used to kindergarten or school. As a result, they are less likely to return to Ukraine, ” Borys Krimer sums up.

What can be the consequences of population outflow

Experts say that in any case, the consequences of the war for Ukraine will be terrible, because in some places the impact of military operations in countries can last even 50 years after their completion.

According to Lydia Tkachenko, it is now very difficult to make any demographic forecasts for Ukraine.

“Previously, everything was calculated based on the birth rate and mortality, and migration did not significantly affect this. For example, since the beginning of the zero years, the migration growth was already small, but with the beginning of a full — scale war, migration flows, of course, have increased very much,” the expert says.

She confirms that there will still be a large percentage of those Ukrainians who do not want to return to Ukraine, and there may also be such a problem that as soon as the borders are opened, many men may still leave, not only those who already have a wife and children abroad, but also men who have survived the war. war is very stressful. Lydia Tkachenko emphasizes that this will be the loss of the young population, which can still work for the development of Ukraine for a long time. That is, the state will gradually lose the necessary amount of labor, and there will be no one to replace it. Relatively speaking, today high school students in 5-7 years should replace in the labor market those Ukrainians who are now of pre-retirement age. If students continue to leave the country en masse and do not return, then those who retire will have no one to replace them in the labor market.

As a result, Ukraine risks facing another problem — there will be fewer working citizens than the same pensioners. For example, even before the full-scale war in Ukraine, there was about one working citizen per pensioner. That is, in fact, we can say that one employee withheld one pensioner at the expense of his taxes. Lydia Tkachenko says that while this ratio still remains, if Ukrainians continue to go abroad en masse, in particular, high school students who will later be able to work, the situation will worsen. If this trend continues, then sooner or later, relatively speaking, there will already be two or three pensioners per person working in Ukraine. But according to experts, no pension system can withstand such a load, and therefore we will have to resort to drastic measures. For example, raise the retirement age.


https://regionews.ua/ukr/articles/1730982278-ukrayina-vtrachae-ditey-demografi-b-yut-trivogu-cherez-masoviy-viyizd-shkolyariv-za-kordon (via translation add-on.)

Posted by: Jeremy Rhymings-Lang | Nov 28 2024 20:32 utc | 85