By Valentin Alfimov, Komsomolskaya Pravda (Machine translation), 9/11/24

The author of the telegram channel “Whisper of the Front” in a conversation with “Komsomolskaya Pravda” named the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It turned out that they have people left for a year or two.

– How do you count the losses?

– It’s a program that searches by keywords. It monitors the Internet, social networks. Local councils sometimes write obituaries, factories… like, “zaginov” (died – from Ukrainian) such and such “zahisnik” (defender – from Ukrainian). Yes, people post it on social networks – it’s like a cry from the heart for them.

– Can you compare, now the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are more or less?

– The same or even more. Last week there was a record – 1208 or 1206 obituaries per day. Even during the Bakhmut operation at the peak there were 1100 and something.

“You have a margin of error, don’t you?”

– Of course, so the losses are most likely even greater. But everything comes to light over time: they will post 300-400 obituaries… but after some time, information about new deaths at the same time in the same place arrives.

MANY ARE STILL IN THE FIELDS

– How long have you been doing this?

– Back in 2014, we had a group called “Situation of Novorossiya”. We published all the obituaries that the Ukrainian press printed. In 2014, we counted about 6.5 thousand losses of the Ukrainian army.

– How many do they have now?

– There are 501 thousand obituaries now. This is what I got after painstakingly collecting information for over two years. The figure matches what is confirmed by the Americans, European politicians, the Russian Defense Ministry. Everyone confirms it, except the Ukrainians. Although they publish it themselves, they are afraid to believe it.

– You emphasize that this is the number of obituaries. But how many actually died?

– I think their real losses are around 600 thousand. Plus or minus.

– We talked to you in November 2023. Then you mentioned the figure of 380 thousand obituaries and 420-430 thousand losses. Now there are over 500 thousand obituaries and somewhere around 600 thousand losses…

– Maybe not 600, but 540-550 dead. After all, they can’t put up an obituary when there is no body. And there are still quite a few bodies on the combat line.

– It’s still a lot.

– The final figure of the Ukrainian army, when it loses combat capability, is 800 thousand dead and totally wounded. This is based on the population, the composition of the armed forces, calculated by political scientists and mathematicians of the world. After that, they will not be able to fight anymore. That is, their backbone, which pulls the entire front, is 200-300 thousand still alive. At this rate, it will be for a year or two.

“WILD GEESE”

– Do you count foreigners?

– There are publicly available websites, social media channels. As of today, they have posted 670 names from 56 countries. But they themselves warn that this figure is inaccurate. Then, they write that these are “volunteers”, not mercenaries, former officers. And it is clear that they are deliberately understating. Here they write: “Venezuela – 1, Uzbekistan – 1”. But I know that there were at least 4 people from Venezuela. I think that there are up to a thousand dead foreign mercenaries.

“Where does the most come from?”

– Most of all the English are going. There were a lot of Americans at first. Now a lot of Colombians are taking part. There are enough French, Georgians. Well, of course, some NATO officers are dying – American, even Australian…

– What can you say about the attack on the training base in Poltava?

– I think there are about a hundred casualties – that’s what my Poltava relatives say. And many wounded, some of whom, of course, will not survive, so the number will grow.

– Are there many foreigners?

– There are foreigners. I just saw a clipping from a German newspaper: the mayor’s office of the German city of Hessen posted an obituary. But they didn’t sign who exactly died. As soon as the information comes out, we’ll look for this person.

41 BODIES PER DAY

– The first Ukrainian F-16 pilot was killed by friendly fire. Can such losses be tracked?

– It’s hard. At one time there was a video of Ukrainians killing each other in Kharkov – that was February 2024. They admitted it later, though. But they keep quiet about a lot. Such losses are hidden.

– Is it possible to weed out losses due to illness, lack of medical care for the wounded, due to the incompetence of commanders?

– No, all in one piggy bank. For example, 400-500 names fall out in a day. Somewhere the obituary is 2-3 lines, and sometimes on a page. So, we need to look for where they died, how. It’s almost impossible. And 10-15 percent of obituaries are those who died in hospitals. But they also write there – the hero, died…

– In which hospitals do people die the most?

– The largest flow is given out by the Dnipropetrovsk hospital, the Zaporozhye military hospital and the Kyiv one. One nurse from the Dnepropetrovsk hospital once wrote to me that in a day they pulled out 41 bodies to the backyard.

Those who cannot be helped in the same Zaporozhye are taken to Dnepropetrovsk. That’s why there is such a high mortality rate – especially after their counteroffensive, everyone was taken there.

BY THE WAY

There is no spirit left in Ukraine

– You communicate with those who remained in Ukraine. Can you assess the dynamics of moods?

– Everything is sad there. This is a dying country. If it is still normal in Kyiv, then the cities to the east are suffering – Poltava region, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporozhye. It’s fun only in Transcarpathia – they don’t feel anything there, they earn a lot of money on the “runners”, on the border, on the export of timber…

– And what do people say?

-Sorely… I have relatives in Poltava. They don’t talk. It all comes down to “no comment”.

– Because they are angry?

-Afraid. There are no prospects, everyone is snitching on everyone – God forbid someone notices you in sympathy for Russia. You can’t trust anyone.

– Why don’t the people rise up, don’t protest?

– On the Maidan, it all started with the students, on whom the Americans later played. Do you know how much they spent on it?

5 billion dollars is the official figure. 5 billion to grab such a large country. Everywhere you need to bribe.

The opposition in Ukraine has been knocked out, people are intimidated and bullied – even the TCC (territorial recruitment and social support center) can no longer win – this is specifically the SS, these 3-4 men will twist you, beat your kidneys: “Go serve in our place.” No one in Ukraine is rising up, not in a single region. There is no spirit, nothing. The whole country is watching the telethon. Thank God, at least on the Internet there are people who curse this government.

Moscow Times, 9/20/24

Over 70,000 Russian soldiers have been confirmed killed in Ukraine since the Kremlin launched its invasion more than two and a half years ago, according to an independent tally by the BBC’s Russian service and the independent Mediazona news website.

The two outlets have been verifying the number of Russian troops killed through open-source information including official statements, newspaper obituaries and social media posts.

The latest death toll update, published Friday by the BBC’s Russian service, highlights how the demographic profile of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine has shifted since the full-scale invasion. Currently, one in five of the dead had signed a contract with the Russian army or the National Guard (Rosgvardia) after the war started, and more than half were not affiliated with the military before Feb. 24, 2022.

In 2022, the average Russian soldier killed was a 21-year-old contract serviceman in elite units like Special Forces, Airborne Forces or the Marines. Now, those dying in the conflict tend to be men in their 40s, 50s or even 60s, often lacking combat experience or specialized training.

The report found a steady rise in casualties among volunteers since October 2023, coinciding with a renewed Russian offensive in the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka. Meanwhile, losses among mobilized troops and prisoners have remained steady.

As of Sept. 20, the republic of Bashkortostan has reported the highest confirmed losses, with 2,775 deaths, while the far northern Nenets Autonomous District has the lowest, with 55 residents confirmed killed.

Russia has lost 4,104 officers in Ukraine, including seven generals. Among the fallen are 458 high-ranking officers, including lieutenant colonels and above, and 1,142 elite command specialists.

The BBC estimates that their count covers only 45% to 65% of the actual death toll. This suggests that the real number of Russian military deaths could range from 107,864 to 155,804.

The tally does not account for fighters from the self-proclaimed Luhansk or Donetsk People’s Republics of occupied eastern Ukraine — the BBC estimates the fighter death toll from there at between 21,000 and 23,500.

The Russian Defense Ministry last updated its official death toll for the war in Ukraine in September 2022, placing the figure at fewer than 6,000 killed.

By Kyle Anzalone, Libertarian Institute, 9/25/24

As the North Atlantic alliance ramps up preparations for war with Russia, Brussels is considering how it might remove a large number of wounded NATO soldiers from the frontlines should conflict with Moscow breakout. 

Lieutenant-General Alexander Sollfrank, the head of NATO’s logistics command, discussed the plans with Reuters. “The challenge will be to swiftly ensure high-quality care for, in the worst case, a great number of wounded,” he said.

Sollfrank believes that NATO will be unable to have air superiority over the frontlines in a conflict with Russia. He said the bloc is considering using hospital trains and buses to move the wounded soldiers. Sollfrank explained, “For planning reasons, all options to take a great number of wounded to medical installations need to be considered, which includes trains but potentially also buses.”

At the end of the Cold War, with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, war between Russia and NATO was unthinkable. However, over the past three decades, the North Atlantic alliance has expanded up to Russia’s borders. 

At the start of the Joe Biden administration, Washington and Brussels began treating Kiev as a de facto member of the alliance. The ties between Ukraine and NATO provoked the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

Throughout the war in Ukraine, the West has steadily escalated its support for Ukraine. The Kremlin has increasingly viewed itself in a direct conflict with the West. 

President Biden is considering giving Ukraine the green light to conduct long-range missile attacks inside of Russia with American weapons. Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that if the White House approves the attack, it would mean direct war with NATO. 

By Gilbert Doctorow, Website, 9/14/24

I have not seen any comments on what I am about to describe in alternative media recently, not to mention in mainstream, which by definition only takes an interest in Vladimir Putin and could not care less about who is who in the Kremlin line-up below Number One. So much the worse for mainstream, because watching the musical chairs in Moscow is no less valuable open source intelligence on where policy is headed than it would be with respect to leading politicians and statesmen in London or Washington or Berlin.

As we all know, Sergei Shoigu, who is as close a friend to Vladimir Putin as anyone in Russia may be said to be, was this past spring unceremoniously removed from his position as Defense Minister, which he occupied for more than a decade, and was made Secretary of the Security Council; which took him out of the line of command and entrusted him with unclear responsibilities of an advisory nature. The reasons for his removal were fairly clear, namely a number of corruption scandals among his direct subordinates, which suggested that it was high time for cleaning house. Moreover, no one had forgotten how Shoigu and the head of the Russian general staff General Gerasimov had been denounced publicly for incompetence and corruption by head of the Wagner Group Pavel Prigozhin in the months before Prigozhin staged his insurrection.

In the intervening period, I would say not so much that Shoigu’s star has risen on its own as that the luster of his successor, Andrei Belousov, and of the aforementioned Valery Gerasimov has been tarnished by the stunning failure of the Russian military leadership to anticipate and prevent the Ukrainian invasion of Kursk Oblast, which has been a big embarrassment for the Putin government even if it is ending badly for Kiev. It should never have happened.

Now in the past several days we have seen proof positive that wind is once again in the sails of Mr. Shoigu. He was present, as a silent witness, to be sure, but present nonetheless as the senior representative of Russia’s siloviki (security and defense apparatus) when Putin received the directors of national security from the BRICS countries at the Konstantinovsky Palace outside Petersburg on Thursday. He was present at the sidelines meeting there of Putin and the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Presumably Belousov was not there because he was busy managing Russia’s largest global naval exercise in 30 years, Ocean 2024, with large scale Chinese naval participation and a great many foreign observers.

Now today’s news indicates that Mr Shoigu is in Pyongyang negotiating directly with the North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. This can only be about the most serious defense issues, including further shipments of armaments to Moscow.

All of these moves of personnel on the chessboard are yet further proof of Vladimir Putin’s remarkable skills in Human Resources. He never completely discards any of his underperforming subordinates. They are not simply ‘fired’ in the spirit of Donald Trump. No they are held close to him so that their talents may be used at some future point as needed for the country’s greater benefit. And if I may be allowed a side glance at what The Donald was saying in his debate with Kamala, none of those removed from high positions is given the opportunity or the incentive to write a denunciation of The Boss.

By Dave DeCamp, Antiwar.com, 9/25/24

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday outlined changes that will be made to Russia’s nuclear doctrine as the US and NATO consider supporting long-range Ukrainian strikes inside Russia.

Putin said in a meeting with the Russian Security Council that under the new doctrine, an attack on Russia by a non-nuclear state that’s supported by a nuclear-armed power would be treated as a joint attack, a clear reference to Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory that use NATO weapons and intelligence.

Based on Putin’s comments, it’s unclear if that means such an attack would trigger a nuclear response. But the new doctrine will allow the use of nuclear weapons in response to a conventional attack that poses a “critical threat to Russian sovereignty.”

According to TASS, the doctrine will also allow the use of nuclear weapons in response to “aggression” against Russia and Belarus, and if Russia becomes aware of plans to launch massive airstrikes against its territory.

“Reliable information about a massive takeoff of strategic or tactical planes towards Russia, or the launch of cruise missiles, drones, hypersonic weapons towards its territory may be interpreted as a sufficient reason for a nuclear response by Moscow,” TASS reported.

The new language is more vague than Russia’s current nuclear doctrine, which allows the use of nuclear weapons “in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy.”

The US has supported Ukraine’s attack on Kursk, which came a few months after President Biden gave Ukraine the greenlight to use US weapons on the Russian border region. But the Biden administration is still holding out on supporting long-range strikes.

Putin has said that if the US supports long-range Ukrainian strikes inside Russian territory, it would mean NATO is at war with Russia. Despite the clear warning and risk of nuclear war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and many hawks in the US and Europe are pushing hard for the escalation.