Dissident Voice, 1/11/25

Peter Ford served in the UK Foreign Ministry for many years including being UK Ambassador to Bahrain (1999-2003) and  then Syria (2003-2006).  Following that, he was representative to the Arab world for the Commissioner General of United Nations Relief and Works Agency.  He was interviewed by Rick Sterling on Jan 6, 2025.

Rick Sterling:  Why do you think the Syrian military and government collapsed so rapidly?

Peter Ford: Everybody was surprised but with hindsight, we shouldn’t have been. Over more than a decade, the Syrian army had been hollowed out by the extremely dire economic situation in Syria, mainly caused by western sanctions. Syria only had a few hours of electricity a day, no money to buy weapons and no ability to use the international banking system to buy anything whatsoever. It’s no surprise that the Army was run down. With hindsight, you might say the surprise is that the Syrian government and Army were successful in driving back the Islamists. The Syrian Army forced them into the redoubt of Idlib four or five years ago.But after that point, the Syrian army deteriorated, became less battle ready on the technical level and also morale.

Syrian soldiers are mainly conscripts and they suffer as much as any ordinary Syrian from the really dreadful economic situation in Syria. I hesitate to admit it, but the Western sanctions were extremely effectively in doing what they were designed to do: to bring the Syrian economy down to its knees. So we have to say, and I say this with deep regret,  the sanctions worked. The sanctions did exactly what they were designed to do to make the Syrian people suffer, and thereby to bring about discontent with what they call the regime.

Ordinary Syrians didn’t understand the complexities of geopolitics, and they blamed the Syrian government for everything: not having electricity, not having food, not having gas, oil, high inflation. Everything that came from being cut off from the world economy and not having supporters with bottomless pockets.

Syria was being attacked and occupied by major military powers (Turkey, USA, Israel). Plus thousands of foreign jihadis. The Syrian army was so demoralized that they really were a paper tiger by the end of the day.

RS:  Do you think the UK and the US were involved in training the jihadis prior to the December attack on Aleppo?

PF:  Absolutely. The Israelis also. The leader of Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS),  Ahmed Hussein al Sharaa (formerly known as Mohammad abu Jolani) almost certainly has British advisors in the background.   In fact, I detected the hand of such advisors in some of the statements made in impeccable English. The statements had Americanized spelling, so the CIA are in there too.  Jolani is a puppet, a marionette saying what they want him to say.

RS:  What’s is the current situation,  a month after the collapse?

PF:  There are skirmishes here and there, but broadly, the Islamists and foreign fighters are ruling the roost. There are pockets of resistance in Latakia where the Alawite are literally fighting for their lives.  Much of the fighting is about the attempts by HTF, the present rulers to  confiscate weapons. The Alawites are resisting and there are pockets of resistance in the South where there are local Druze militias.

HTS is spread thinly on the ground. They are facing problems in asserting themselves. Although they had a walkover against the Syrian army, they never actually had to do much fighting.  I would guess they only have about 30,000 fighting men and spread across Syria, that is not a lot. There’s an important pocket of resistance in the Northeast where the Kurds are. The Kurdish American allies are resisting. The so-called Syrian National Army, which is a front for the Turkish army, may  go into a fully fledged war against the Kurdish forces. But that’s going to depend partly on what happens after the  inauguration of the new US president, how Trump deals with the situation.

RS:   What are you hearing from people in Syria?

It is not a pretty story. HTS and their allies have been parading showing their dominance, flying ISIS and Al-Qaeda flags. They have been bullying, intimidating, confiscating and looting. Surrendering Christian as well as Alawite soldiers have been given summary justice, roadside executions being the norm.  Christians in their towns and villages are just trying to hunker down and pray. Literally. I’m sorry to say the senior Christian clerics, with one or two noble exceptions, have opted for appeasement and effectively betrayed their communities. The senior leadership at the Orthodox Church, in particular Greek Catholic church, have had themselves photographed with dignitaries of the jihadi regime.

They are turning the other cheek. It’s quite a contrast with the Alawite. But they have no choice. You may remember that the slogan of the jihadi armies during the conflict was, “Christians to Beirut, Alawite to the grave.”  HTS  is going through the motions of having meetings with clerics and making soothing noises. All the while their henchmen are driving around in trucks flying ISIS flags. What I’m hearing is very depressing.

The regime is leaving the Alawites totally abandoned. You barely read a word in the west in media about the plight of the Alawite and not much more about the Christians.

RS:  Western media have demonized Bashar al Assad and even Asma Assad.   What was your impression of Bashar and Asma when you met them? What do you think of accusations they accumulated billions of dollars?

PF: The accusations are completely spurious. I know some members of the Assad family, some of them have lived for many years in Britain. They lived in very modest personal circumstances. If Assad had been a billionaire, like they’re saying, some of that would’ve trickled down. I can guarantee you that has not been the case.  These accusations also go against the impressions that I picked up when I was seeing the Assads when I was an ambassador there. They appreciated the good things of life the same as everybody else, but they didn’t come across as the Marcos type. Nothing at all like that.  It is all lies,  made up to serve the deeper agenda.

The media kicking of Bashar and Asma  is really distasteful. It’s pointless.He’s disappointed his few remaining followers, although it was unrealistic, I believe, for them to expect more. But the fact is that he ran when others were not able to run, and many of those have been killed, or they’re hiding or they’ve escaped to Lebanon in some cases where they’re also hiding. He did get out with his skin, but to beat up on him as the media are doing is really distasteful and pointless. It is akin to this new genre of political pornography, Assad porn, the torture stories, the hyped up narrative about prison and graves being opened up. Actually, by the way, most of those graves are war dead. They were not people who’d been tortured to death as the media pretends. Hundreds of thousands of people died in the conflict over more than a decade, and many of them were buried in unmarked graves. But the western media are reveling in this new genre of Assad porn.

This is all being whipped up to make Western audiences more accepting of the way the West is getting into bed with Al-Qaeda. The more they demonize Assad and harp on the misdeeds of the Assad regime, and the more likely we are to swallow and be distracted away from the  hideous atrocities being carried out right now.

Western leaders are kissing the feet of a guy who’s still a wanted terrorist and who has been a founder member of ISIS for God’s sake, as well as a founder member of Al-Qaeda in Syria. It is morally distasteful and shaming.

Joulani needs the west desperately now. Otherwise, he will face the same fate as Bashar Asad. If the economy continues on its trajectory of the years, then Joulani will be dead meat in fairly short order. He has to deliver massive rapid economic improvement to survive as leader. And this is what it’s all about. His strategy, obviously, is to milk his status as a puppet of the West in order to secure not just reconstruction aid, but that’s for the long term, but more immediately sanctions relief, the electricity flowing again, the oil.

Let”s not forget that the oil and gas of Syria is still effectively in the hands of the United States, which through its Kurdish puppets, controls a segment of the economy, which used to be worth, I think, 20% of serious GDP and provide essential oil for fuel, cooking, everything. He’s got to get his hands on that and get sanctions lifted. That’s what so much of it is about. But he has one major problem: Israel. Israel’s not buying it. Israel is the exception. All the western front is tumbling over itself to go and kiss the feet of the sultan of Damascus. But the Israelis are sucking their teeth, saying they don’t trust the guy.

Israel is destroying the remnants of the Syrian army and its infrastructure. Meanwhile they grab more Syrian land. They want to keep Syria on its knees indefinitely by insisting that Western sanctions not be lifted.  I sense there’s a battle royal going on in Washington between what we might call the deep state, which would favor lifting sanctions and the Israel lobby, which is resisting that for selfish Israeli reasons. Given that the Israeli lobby wins these tussles nine times out of 10 , the outlook may not be that great for the Jolani regime.

RS:   What are your hopes and fears for Syria? What’s the nightmare scenario and what’s the best possible?

PF: I’m very pessimistic. It is very hard to see a silver lining in what has happened. Syria has been taken off the table as a Middle East player. The old Syria has died effectively. Syria was the last man standing among the Arab countries that supported the Palestinians. There was no other. There were militias like Hezbollah plus Yemen but there were no states other than Syria. Syria is now gone, and the jihadis are saying, telling the world they don’t care. By the way, this is an example of how the Israelis will not take yes for an answer. The jihadis keep telling the world, “We love Israel. We don’t care about the Palestinians. Please accept us. We love you.”  And the Israelis won’t take yes for an answer.

The best hope for the Syrian people is that they may get some respite. It is possible to imagine a scenario where the Syrian people are able to recover, at least economically a scenario under which sanctions are lifted, under which Syria, the central government recovers control of its oil and grain, where fighting has stopped, where it doesn’t have to pay anything to keep up an army because it’s not trying.They might be able to put everything into reconstruction.

So it is possible to imagine a scenario where Syria loses its soul, but gains more hours of electricity. That is possibly the most likely scenario. But there are major obstacles as we discussed, Israel standing in the way of sanctions, lifting pockets of resistance in discipline among the jihadi ranks, Turkey rampaging against the Kurds and ISIS which is still not a completely spent force. So the outlook is obviously cloudy. We should take stock in a month’s time when we see the early days of the new regime in Washington on which so much will depend.

RS:  In Trump’s first term he tried to remove all US troops from east Syria but his efforts were ignored. Perhaps that could have made a big  difference?

PF: Yes, it could have been a total game changer.  If Syria had  access to its oil, it wouldn’t have had the fuel problem, the electricity problem. It could have changed the history of the region.

Now, the US is increasing the number of soldiers and bases in Syria.  And they recently assassinated a ISIS leader which might have played a role in sparking the recent terrorist attack in the US. All of this makes it much harder now for Trump to withdraw US forces because it will seen as a retreat, a reward for ISIS.

I argued for years that the sanctions were manifestly not working. But in the end they did. It’s like a bridge. It gets undermined and then suddenly it breaks. There was no single cause. It was just the culmination and things reached a tipping point.

Rick Sterling is an investigative journalist in the SF Bay Area. He can be reached at rsterling1@protonmail.com.

YouTube link to Kim Iversen’s analysis here.

Kremlin’s statement on Trump-Putin Phone call, Kremlin website, 3/18/25

The leaders continued a detailed and frank exchange of views on the situation around Ukraine. Vladimir Putin expressed gratitude to Donald Trump for his desire to help achieve the noble goal of ending hostilities and human losses.

Having confirmed his fundamental commitment to a peaceful resolution of the conflict, the Russian President declared his readiness to thoroughly work out possible ways of settlement together with his American partners, which should be comprehensive, sustainable and long-term. And, of course, to take into account the absolute need to eliminate the root causes of the crisis, Russia’s legitimate interests in the field of security.

In the context of the US President’s initiative to introduce a 30-day truce, the Russian side outlined a number of significant points regarding ensuring effective control over a possible ceasefire along the entire line of combat contact, the need to stop forced mobilization in Ukraine and rearm the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Serious risks associated with the inability to negotiate of the Kyiv regime, which has repeatedly sabotaged and violated the agreements reached, were also noted. Attention was drawn to the barbaric terrorist crimes committed by Ukrainian militants against the civilian population of the Kursk region.

It was emphasized that the key condition for preventing the escalation of the conflict and working towards its resolution by political and diplomatic means should be a complete cessation of foreign military aid and the provision of intelligence information to Kyiv.

In connection with Donald Trump’s recent appeal to save the lives of Ukrainian servicemen surrounded in the Kursk region, Vladimir Putin confirmed that the Russian side is ready to be guided by humanitarian considerations and, in the event of surrender, guarantees the lives and decent treatment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers in accordance with Russian laws and international law.

During the conversation, Donald Trump put forward a proposal for the parties to the conflict to mutually refrain from strikes on energy infrastructure facilities for 30 days. Vladimir Putin responded positively to this initiative and immediately gave the Russian military the corresponding order.

The Russian President also responded constructively to Donald Trump’s idea of ​​implementing a well-known initiative concerning the safety of navigation in the Black Sea. It was agreed to begin negotiations to further elaborate specific details of such an agreement.

Vladimir Putin informed that on March 19, the Russian and Ukrainian sides will exchange prisoners – 175 for 175 people. In addition, as a gesture of goodwill, 23 seriously wounded Ukrainian servicemen who are being treated in Russian medical institutions will be transferred.

The leaders confirmed their intention to continue efforts to achieve a Ukrainian settlement in a bilateral mode, including taking into account the above-mentioned proposals of the US President. For this purpose, Russian and American expert groups are being created.

Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump also touched upon other issues on the international agenda, including the situation in the Middle East and the Red Sea region. Joint efforts will be made to stabilize the situation in crisis areas, establish cooperation on nuclear non-proliferation and global security issues. This, in turn, will contribute to improving the overall atmosphere of Russian-American relations. One positive example is the joint vote in the UN on the resolution regarding the Ukrainian conflict.

Mutual interest in normalizing bilateral relations was expressed in light of the special responsibility of Russia and the United States for ensuring security and stability in the world. In this context, a wide range of areas in which our countries could establish cooperation was considered. A number of ideas were discussed that are moving towards the development of mutually beneficial cooperation in the economy and energy sector in the future.

Donald Trump supported Vladimir Putin’s idea to organize hockey matches in the United States and Russia between Russian and American players playing in the NHL and KHL.

The presidents agreed to remain in contact on all issues raised.

By Jared Gans, The Hill, 2/24/25

Most voters want Ukraine to reach a settlement with Russia as the war between the two countries reaches its three-year anniversary, including a majority of Republicans, Democrats and independents, according to a new poll.

But the parties split on what the process to negotiate an end to the hostilities should look like, as Trump administration officials start to meet with Russian officials to discuss bringing the war to a conclusion, and separately negotiate a natural resources deal with Ukraine.

The Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll found that 72 percent of registered voters said want Ukraine to focus on negotiating a settlement over continuing the war, including 80 percent of Republicans, 73 percent of independents and 61 percent of Democrats.

Trump’s announcement of direct negotiations between the U.S. and Russia to end the war is overwhelmingly popular among Republicans with 85 percent in favor. A slight majority of independents favor that approach, while 60 percent of Democrats are opposed.

Almost six in 10 across parties said they oppose the Trump administration leaving Ukrainian leaders out of the negotiations, including 76 percent of Democrats and 64 percent of independents. But 62 percent of Republicans said they support leaving Ukraine out of the talks.

Democrats and independents are also both cool to leaving European leaders out of the discussions, while 69 percent of Republicans support it.

MSNBC cancels Joy Reid show as part of overhaul under new administration, Lester Holt to step down as anchor of ‘NBC Nightly News’

Three-quarters of Democrats and almost two-thirds of independents oppose Trump forcing Ukraine to make territorial concessions to end the war, while two thirds of Republicans support it.

Roughly two-thirds of Republicans, Democrats and independents say Ukraine should receive security guarantees from the U.S. if it makes concessions with Russia.

Mark Penn, chair of the Harris Poll, told The Hill that Americans “despise” Russian President Vladimir Putin but are “weary of the cost and longevity” of the war. He said most support efforts to try to end the war, even as they don’t trust Putin to abide by the terms.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who Trump has called a “dictator” who is doing a “terrible job,” said on Sunday that he would consider resigning from office as part of a peace agreement that had Ukraine joining NATO.

Mike Waltz, Trump’s national security adviser, reiterated on Monday that Ukraine joining NATO is “not back on the table” in talks to end the war. 

The Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey was conducted from Feb. 19 to 20 and surveyed 2,443 registered voters. It is a collaboration of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and the Harris Poll.

The survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. The margin of error is 2 percentage points.

The Bell, 3/17/25

On the eve of a phone call with Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin unveiled his latest overture to the United States. For the first time in three years of war, he signed an order on Monday allowing major US investment funds to sell their holdings of frozen Russian securities. The move comes as US media report the White House is looking at what carrots it can offer Moscow, with the potential recognition of Crimea as Russian territory on the table.

• Vladimir Putin has signed an order allowing ten investment funds from the US and UK to sell their assets in Russia. From the list of firms, it is clear the assets in question are Russian securities, in which non-resident investors held large stakes before the war. On 1 February 2022, non-residents owned around 20% of Russian government bonds (OFZs). Among those given the green light to sell are some of the largest Western funds that have invested in Russia, including Franklin Templeton, GMO, Jane Street and Baillie Gifford.
• Putin’s decision is a milestone: no Western investment fund has yet been able to pull out or sell securities stuck in Russia. They have not been nationalised, but the assets have been transferred to frozen so-called type-C escrow accounts, from which money cannot be withdrawn without permission from the Russian authorities. In total, these accounts had assets worth 500 billion rubles ($6.4 billion) in them as of March 2023, Bloomberg reported, citing Central Bank data.
• The buyer, listed in Putin’s order, is little-known New York-based hedge fund 683 Capital Partners. But they won’t hold onto them for long. Putin has also authorised two Russian legal entities, LLC Cepheus-2 and LLC Sovremennye Fonds Nedvizhimosti, former structures of Sber, which are most likely still connected with the state bank, to buy the assets from 683 Capital Partners.
• Who is 683 Capital Partners and why are they involved as a middle-man in the deal? According to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, at the end of 2024, 683 Capital Partners managed assets worth $1.6bn (a tiny amount in the hedge fund world), and had just 10 employees. The firm seems to have nothing to do with Russia. But The Bell immediately noticed that the founder and head of the fund, Ari Zweiman, studied at both Stanford and Harvard in exactly the same years as the head of RDIF, Kirill Dmitriev, who is now one of the negotiators with the Americans, focused on economy issues. In response to a question about his possible association with Zweiman, Dmitriev said: “I am not familiar, neither I nor RDIF has ever had any contacts with this fund.”
• The authorisation of these deals comes a day before a phone call between Putin and Trump, during which the two sides will discuss (1, 2) terms for ending the war in Ukraine. Trump himself said on Monday night that the conversation would take place in the morning (i.e. evening Moscow time). Semafor claimed that the White House is going through a variety of options on what to promise Vladimir Putin for agreeing to a ceasefire in Ukraine – including allegedly exploring the possibility of recognising Crimea as Russian.

Why the world should care

The scheme for selling the Russian assets of American investment funds described in Vladimir Putin’s order looks suspicious. Western funds for some reason sell their assets to an intermediary who will then resell the securities to a Russian entity. There can only be two good explanations for such a scheme: protecting the Western sellers from the threat of sanctions, and kickbacks for the intermediary players (quite possibly both).

By Andrew Korybko, Substack, 2/9/25

The EU would do well to indefinitely suspend Ukrainians’ visa-free access to the bloc after martial law ends.

Outgoing Polish President Andrzej Duda told the Financial Times that a crime wave could sweep across Europe after the Ukrainian Conflict ends if that country’s PTSD-afflicted troops spill into the bloc and engage in organized crime like their Soviet predecessors from the 1980s Afghan War did after 1991. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry swiftly reacted by denying that they could pose any such threat, pointing to how they didn’t between 2014-2022, and claiming that they’re actually a security asset for Europe. [https://www.ft.com/content/6d3b06f8-f5d4-4870-9b33-43bf4a651849]

Their three points are superficial though since traumatized troops anywhere in the world are much more prone to deviant behavior, the latest phase of the conflict has objectively been much more traumatizing than the prior one, and this therefore makes its veterans a security liability for Europe at the very least. Compounding the aforementioned risks is the fact that the US failed to track billions of dollars’ worth of weapons sent to Ukraine according to Reuters so some of these likely ended up on the black market.

The threat that Duda just drew attention to is thus a very credible and urgent one that should be taken seriously by all European stakeholders. This doesn’t mean that they need to foot part of the bill for Ukraine’s security and development like he strongly implied in his interview, but just that they should at the minimum indefinitely suspend its citizens’ visa-free access to the bloc otherwise traumatized veterans armed with illegally obtained US weapons might turn his warning into a prophecy.

The floodgates will open if the US succeeds in brokering a ceasefire like it’s arguably aiming to do for the purpose of prompting Ukraine into lifting marital law and therefore legally setting the stage for the next elections. Military-age Ukrainian males will then be able to freely leave to the EU unless the bloc indefinitely suspends their visa-free access. The arguments in favor of these restrictions far outweigh those against them from the perspective of European and Ukrainian national interests.

Europe already received several million low-wage laborers so it doesn’t need to risk the credible security consequences of accepting traumatized Ukrainian veterans just to obtain some more, while Ukraine needs as many of its refugees to return as possible after the conflict ends in order to rebuild. It goes without saying that Ukraine also can’t afford another large-scale exodus and thus has an interest in requesting that the EU indefinitely suspends their visa-free access to the bloc if it won’t do so on its own.

Keeping the border open to them would be a recipe for mutual disaster. There’s also the possibility that Poland takes the lead in unilaterally refusing to admit military-aged Ukrainian males after their country’s martial law is lifted just like it unilaterally decided to suspend asylum rights for some migrants last year. That could trigger a legal crisis within the bloc, especially if others like Hungary and Slovakia follow suit, which would be a worst-case political scenario at the time when the EU would need unity on Ukraine.

Poland’s ruling liberal-globalists, who are closely aligned with EU-leader Germany, might not have the political will to do that though but Hungary might and it could justify this based on Duda’s warning. Even if no member state makes such a dramatic move, some of their citizens might angrily agitate for this if their compatriots fall victim to PTSD-afflicted Ukrainian veteran criminal gangs. The issue deserves to be closely monitored since it’s a credible security risk that could have outsized consequences for the bloc.