YouTube link here.
Paul Goble, Website, Website, 5/2/25
Staunton, May 2 – The “powerful impulse” which led Ukrainians to stop using the Russian language has slowed and in some areas been reversed, according to a detailed, 341-page report by the Ukrainian government’s language ombudsman Taras Kremena. And in some regions and cities, the situation is becoming extremely unsatisfactory.
The report is available online at mova-ombudsman.gov.ua/storage/app/sites/14/Звіт 2023/zvit-2024-1.pdf and is summarized at https://ehorussia.com/new/node/32554). For a Moscow commentary thrilled by this development, see fondsk.ru/news/2025/05/04/khotyat-li-zhiteli-ukrainy-chtoby-ikh-deti-uchili-russkiy-yazyk.html.
According to the Ukrainian experts, this trend reflects the tendency of younger Ukrainians to follow the behavior of their parents rather than to be informed by government efforts to promote the use of Ukrainian. And they urge the government to do more to ensure that ever more Ukrainians will identify Ukrainian as their native language.
By Gilbert Doctorow, Website, 5/7/25
In this installment I turn attention to what was always a mainstay of my reports on visits to Russia since the onset of the Special Military Operation: the household shopping basket and, more broadly, how the consumer is faring in a country subject to the world’s most severe sanctions and in the midst of a war that has placed military production at the center of economic planning while disrupting traditional supply chains.
Food
Put simply, most any food item you would find in any given niche (economy, upper middle class or elite) of the supermarkets in Belgium is available in the counterpart category retailer here in Russia, though sourcing is usually very different.
The difference in provenance is most apparent in fruits and vegetables. High quality leaf lettuce, pre-packed mixtures of baby spinach and other young shoots, cucumbers and cherry tomatoes are grown locally in greenhouses year round. Green celery comes from Iran. Persimmons, summer quality watermelons and other fruits arrive these days from Azerbaijan. The quality of these imports is premium.
In addition there are chains of small food shops spread out across the urban residential communities selling specialty items that are specific to Russian consumer taste like fresh, non-sterilized salmon caviar in the Fish and Caviar network or fragrant giant strawberries delivered from Greece to your corner green grocer. Parenthetically I note that such strawberry sourcing does not work within the EU, where Spain seems to have a monopoly for its less glamorous fruit.
In dairy products, the departure of Danone from the Russian market has had very little impact on what is on your breakfast table. In virtually the same plastic containers and with very similar labeling you can find your Activia equivalent. Despite all the political posturing against Russia, the Finnish cheese maker Valio maintains a respectable presence in the dairy fridges. Otherwise, if you put branded cheeses aside, the product assortment in this category is as good or better than it ever was.
In beverages, Russians who cannot live without Evian or San Pellegrino water can buy their fill in upper middle class supermarkets. Many leading Scotch whiskeys are here at prices comparable to Belgium even if the shelves give much more space to no-name whiskeys at a fraction of the cost. And even niche items like Campari liqueur or Baileys are on sale, though the Baileys is selling at a 30 per cent premium to the Belgian retail price.
The selection of imported canned or bottled beers can be astonishing. To be sure, the overall volume of beer imports is down substantially from before the war, but those who must have their Belgian or German white beer or triple strength monastery brews are still spoiled for choice in our neighborhood.
As for wines, the Italian, French, Chilean, South African and even Australian producers remain well represented. The big ongoing change is the presentation on store shelves of high quality Crimean ‘estate bottled’ red wines in the 8 to 10 euro range, though those in search of prestige bottles will find Russian wines also in the 20 or 30 euro price category in ordinary supermarkets, not only at specialized wine merchants where prices can be multiples of the aforementioned. For lovers of dessert wines, the port varieties on offer from the Crimean producer Massandra present in every supermarket are a must: for 5 euros you get a product that would cost 5 times that if it were labeled Portuguese and sold in Brussels.
As for nonfood items in supermarkets,most brands familiar to US and European consumers remain stocked on the shelves. Tide detergent is here. Regarding many other products, if the producer has left the Russian market his production lines remain active in the hands of the Russian acquirers, selling the same goods under a new name.
Having said all that and only mentioned price a couple of times above, I can now address the question of price inflation: whereas in past reports I said that prices were fairly stable, on this trip it became clear that prices have risen appreciably. Just how much depends on the given product and given producer’s market leverage.
The inflation since my visit 5 months ago is uneven across product categories, reaching perhaps 30% on some items like Russian farmed lake trout or salmon from the Karelia region, which have risen to above Belgian levels. This is noteworthy when wild fish like flounder caught off Murmansk are selling at prices three times lower than in Europe. Yet, in fairness, it must be said that prices on most products that I examined have risen only in the single digits. Still, overall the price rises will be felt in family budgets.
Electronics
We cannot live without our electronic gadgets and this is as true of Russia as anywhere else. Accordingly, I spent some time at the DNS shop closest to my home. DNS is the country’s largest electronics retailer. It was formed several years ago following a market consolidation. I not only looked but also purchased there a new smart phone and new notebook computer.
There can be no question that their product assortment has changed dramatically from what it was before the start of the Special Military Operation, when many of the world’s major manufacturers were represented here. Even on my last visit there were some Western notebook computers from old stock still available for purchase. Not now. Nearly all their computers, telephones and related paraphernalia are produced in China. The leading Chinese international brands like Huawei left this market under threat of U.S. secondary sanctions. So DNS is selling goods supplied by less known companies that are virtually unknown in the West. Are they good? No doubt, otherwise DNS would not offer a money-back one year guarantee. But it is unlikely they are as good as the Hewlett Packard or Alcatel products they replace.
As regards computers, I said above ‘nearly all’ are Chinese. The DNS store had two notebooks on offer priced at half the cheapest Chinese entries and looking very good. These, the salesman told me are made to DNS order on assembly lines in Russia and Belarus and are sold under the DEXP brand name. They run on Intel Celeron chips, have the Microsoft Operating System installed at the factory and are loaded with the Microsoft 365 version Word and Excel software. The all-in price was 220 euros and they come with the aforementioned one year money-back guarantee which can be extended to two years for a modest fee.
I will not bore readers with the hard disk Gigabyte capacity and the like. Suffice it to say that the performance characteristics of this entry level product is sufficient for the needs of your average journalist, myself included.
For those among you who will look for high performance Western computers, Russia today has an answer to your needs but not in the mass market retailers like DNS which must have high volume and regular product deliveries to keep all their shops across the country well stocked. This niche is satisfied by stand-alone computer and electronics shops that buy their products via parallel trading in one-off import lots. A mark-up, of course, is added for this service, but the customers are price-proof and get what they want.
As I said, I also purchased a medium performance Chinese smart phone sold under the HONOR brand name. We are now using it and are very satisfied with our 110 euro outlay.
DNS stores also stock home appliances like dishwashers, refrigerators, washing machines, stoves and the like. Here the Western manufacturers remain present though Chinese and Russian brands are predominant. Here again, any consumer who is ready to pay the equivalent of the purchase price of a small car to get a prestige stove or refrigerator to impress fellow oligarchs can find what he or she needs in stores offering imports from parallel trading.
CARS
Not a great deal has changed in the car market since my visit 5 months ago. Chinese market penetration of new car sales had already reached and passed the 50% mark then. At that time, when more and more Chinese manufacturers entered the market and were setting up distribution, their ability to supply spare parts in a timely way was under question.
Accordingly, on this visit I asked one taxi driver about his Geely, and he said he had no problems with the car or with servicing and spare parts.
There are, of course, a lot of cars on the road in Petersburg that were bought before the imposition of Western sanctions. When I asked the owner of the Peugeot taxi which was taking us downtown how he was faring with spare parts, he said he had no problems. To his knowledge all spares for his car were being sourced in China which is not only reseller but also for some items is an original manufacturer of Peugeot parts. If he is right then the Chinese have stepped into the void left by Western carmakers for maintaining their own vehicles.
Russia Matters, 5/23/25
Intellinews, 5/6/25
Russia’s economy contracted by 0.3% quarter on quarter in 1Q25 in seasonally adjusted terms, marking the first quarterly decline since 2Q22, Vedomosti daily reports citing estimates by Raiffeisenbank.
As followed closely by bne IntelliNews, the signs of a slowdown in Russia are clear, with analysts guessing whether the economy overheated by the full-scale military invasion of Ukraine is headed for a “soft” or “hard” landing.
This week the Ministry of Economic Development said that Russia’s economy grew by 1.7% year-on-year in 1Q25 in unadjusted terms. But in seasonally adjusted terms the GDP growth in 1Q25 was actually negative, according to Raiffeisenbank and other analysts surveyed by Vedomosti.
Renaissance Capital also wrote in the note for clients on May 6 that “seasonally adjusted GDP growth in 1Q25 was negative relative to 4Q24”.
The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) predicted a slowdown for this year since it issued a pessimistic medium-term macroeconomic outlook at the start of August last year. In an effort to bring down sticky high inflation it introduced a series of non-monetary policy measures last year to artificially cool the economy, but it appears it may have overshot as external shocks of falling oil prices, which dropped below $60 a barrel a day earlier, and the chaos the Trump administration tariff policy have bounced back to hit the Russian economy.
A debate has been raging over the last nine months. Some economists believe that Russia will be hit by a wave of bankruptcies later this year, while others say the economy is more robust than it appears. However, the latest results suggest the centre of gravity has shifted to the negative end of the spectrum. Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov almost admitted as much earlier this week when he tripled the federal budget deficit forecast for this year and dropped the outlook for average oil prices in 2025 to a mere $56 per barrel from $62.2.
Bloomberg’s Alexander Isakov estimates the contraction at 0.6%–0.8% q/q, while T-Investments’ Sofya Donets puts the decline at up to 1.5%. The most vulnerable sectors in the ongoing slowdown are industrial production, extraction, and transportation, which all are key export-oriented industries.
Most analysts surveyed by Vedomosti expect a near-zero or slightly negative growth path to persist in 2Q25, with Russia’s economy continuing to teeter on the edge of a technical recession, with near-zero or negative q/q growth expected through mid-year.
This contrasts with the recent bullish outlook published by EconMin.