Update on Negotiations Between Russia and Ukraine

An article in the Jerusalem Post is reporting that sources familiar with Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s recent visit with Putin say that negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are more difficult for Ukraine than president Zelensky is letting on even to his western handlers. Reportedly, Zelensky has been given essentially an ultimatum from Russia and if its terms are not met soon, then an intensified military assault will proceed:

Three days after Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, the details are beginning to emerge. According to people who were privy to details about the meeting, the current situation is that Russia has offered a “final” version of its offer to end the crisis, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky needs to accept or decline.

The proposal was deemed “difficult” but not “impossible,” the sources said. It is worse than what Zelensky would have gotten before the invasion but “the gaps between the sides are not great.”

Putin ordered his forces to halt – and the command for a ceasefire to be enacted was given – in order to wait for Zelensky’s decision, the sources said.

If Ukraine’s president rejects the proposal, French President Emmanuel Macron’s assumption that “the worst is before us” is prone to happen. In that scenario, Putin will order his army to put the pedal to the metal and change the face of Ukraine.

Zelensky is torn, the sources said. On the one hand, he is enjoying immense popularity and has become the perfect Che Guevara. On the other hand, he knows full well what the Argentinian revolutionary and guerrilla leader’s end was.

Zelensky can fortify Ukraine’s independence but will have to pay a heavy price, the sources said. Assumptions are that he will be forced to give up the contested Donbas region, officially recognize the pro-Russian dissidents in Ukraine, pledge that Ukraine will not join NATO, shrink his army and declare neutrality. If he declines the proposal, the outcome may be terrible: thousands, perhaps tens of thousands of Ukrainians will die and there is a high probability that his country will completely lose its independence.

The basic outlines of this article seem to be reinforced by a change in Zelensky’s tone about NATO membership and his willingness to engage in “compromise” as well as other developments.  In an interview with ABC News, Zelensky said he’d cooled on NATO: “I have cooled over the issue a long time ago after we understood that NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine,” Zelenskiy said.

With respect to Russia’s currently stated demands, in addition to neutrality regarding NATO, Zelensky voiced a new willingness to discuss the acceptance of Crimea in Russia and the Donbas as independent:

“I think that items regarding temporarily occupied territories and pseudo-republics not recognized by anyone but Russia, we can discuss and find a compromise on how these territories will live on… What’s important to me is how the people in those territories who want to be part of Ukraine are going to live.”

Prior to Zelensky’s interview, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson had publicly reiterated that Ukraine has no prospects of NATO membership in the foreseeable future. Furthermore, some EU nations – such as Germany and the Netherlands – are balking at the idea of Ukraine even joining the economic bloc. I’m not sure what else Zelensky needs to sober up and realize that the west doesn’t see Ukraine as a good risk for them outside of throwing weapons at them to prolong the killing with no real chance of victory.

It appears that nothing substantive came out of yesterday’s third round of talks between Russia and Ukraine.  However, it was reported by Reuters yesterday that the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine will be meeting on Thursday for talks hosted by Turkey.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Congress has agreed on a $14 billion aid package for Ukraine that will entail funds for both military and humanitarian assistance.  Amazing how quickly they can get this out the door while Americans are still waiting on a public option for healthcare and an increase in the minimum wage that has been sitting at a measly $7.25 an hour for 13 years. Priorities.

No-Fly Zone Maniacs

Hopefully the Ukraine conflict will get resolved quickly one way or another before the crazies have their way. My earlier post regarding the consequences of a no-fly zone were the result of alarming polls coming out in recent days in which a majority of Americans support a US/NATO no-fly zone over Ukraine.  I think most of these people don’t really understand what that is. The reason they are supporting it is no doubt because the mainstream media is whipping up war frenzy and not educating readers/viewers on what exactly a no-fly zone is and means.  Now we have a letter from “foreign policy experts” to the Biden administration requesting a “limited” no fly zone but that qualifier is virtually meaningless.  Here is the key wording in their letter:

What we seek is the deployment of American and NATO aircraft not in search of confrontation with Russia but to avert and deter Russian bombardment that would result in massive loss of Ukrainian lives.  This is in addition to the request from Ukrainian leaders for A-10 and MiG-29 aircraft to help Ukrainians defend themselves, which we also strongly support.

The signatories are composed of the usual ideological extremists on foreign policy in general and Russia policy in particular:  Anders Aslund, Evelyn Farkas, Melinda Haring (Atlantic Council), Ret. Gen. Phillip Breedlove, Ian Brzezinski (son of Zbig) et al. Let’s hope the Biden administration ignores these lunatics and that mainstream media refrains from giving them a platform to push their insanity.

For what it’s worth, the Pentagon seems to be showing some sense. As I mentioned last week, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin ruled out a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Today Pentagon spokesman John Kirby tweeted that the US did not think Poland’s idea to send fighter jets to Ukraine via the German Rammstein air base was a good idea at this time:

The prospect of fighter jets “at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America” departing from a U.S./NATO base in Germany to fly into airspace that is contested with Russia over Ukraine raises serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance. (3/4)

It is simply not clear to us that there is a substantive rationale for it. We will continue to consult with Poland and our other NATO allies about this issue and the difficult logistical challenges it presents, but we do not believe Poland’s proposal is a tenable one. (4/4)

The CIA, on the other hand, may not be so cautious. According to Scott Ritter’s posting within the past few hours, fighter jets are being funneled to Ukraine from an airfield in Romania:

Ukraine has established a “safe haven” airfield in Romania, probably in concert with CIA assistance. Ukrainian SU-27’s have taken refuge here, and sortie out, entering Ukraine through radar gaps over the Carpathian Mountains. The Polish Mig-29’s will likely deploy to Romania.

…Russia already has [become aware of this], and has warned Romania accordingly.

Russia’s Economic Measures

Meanwhile, Putin has signed a decree to ban the export out of Russia of certain products and raw materials – to be specified later – until December 31^st.  He also signed into law the proposed legislation for dealing with sanctions that I reported on last week, which included the ability to raise pensions and minimum wages, suspension of government inspections of small/medium businesses, and the regulation of pharmaceuticals, among other provisions.

This comes as WTO members are conferring to discuss the possibility of rescinding Russia’s favored nation status in the organization.  

Pepsi, McDonalds, and Starbucks are the latest western companies to suspend operations in Russia. It was reported by Sagaar Enjeti at Breaking Points that many western companies are suspending operations, not for moral reasons or virtue signaling, but because sanctions have made it logistically impossible to continue operating at this time.