By Prof. Oliver Boyd-Barrett, Substack, 7/29/22

Donbass and Kherson Developments

Drawing on Dima’s reports to the Military Summary Channel, it appears to Mercouris (Mercouris July 29 2022) that the Russian renewed offensive is now in full force, more intensely overwhelming than it has ever been, quite contrary to a recent BBC report.

Russia is clearly not running out of ammunition, again contrary of recent western media reports. One Ukrainian brigade or perhaps a smaller unit, has had to withdraw from the front line in the Donbass, overwhelmed with the force of Russian artillery, ignoring orders to hold.

The Russians are pushing hard on the Seversk-Bakhmut Ukrainian line and appear to be preparing to storm Bakhmut. There is a large Ukrainian infantry formation in this area that could be caught in a pincer, putting thousands at risk. Russians continue their attack even further south, punching one or even two holes through heavily fortified Ukrainian front lines close to Donetsk City. Shelling and bombing has been particularly heavy here.

Mercouris considers why Russia has been able to do this at this point in time when in the past they appear to have avoided these fortified lines. Perhaps it is because Ukraine has been redeploying troops and artillery from this area to Kherson, thinking, on the basis of western propaganda, that Russians were running out of steam, and that Ukraine did not have too much to worry about its forces in Donetsk. To launch the attack on Donetsk, Russians seem to have by-passed Ukrainian forces in Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

There are increasing indications, meanwhile, that the Ukrainian advance in Kherson is not going well. Its force on the Inguletz river has been thrown back by Russia, with very heavy losses. Some Ukrainian forces are trying to distract from the debacle by calling the advance just a reconnaissance. As for the Antonovsky bridge it looks as though Russia has resolved problems of resupply and is busy building pontoon crossings of the Dnieper; there are plans for three such bridges. The railway bridge across the dam is still possibly fully operational.

CNN has visited this area (Angus and Ivan Watson and others) and is disparaging of Ukrainian claims to have made advances, noting that it is a large area of open rolling farmland, where advancing Ukrainians can easily be detected, and on which Russia has had three months to build strong 3-layered defenses, while western weapons supplied to Ukraine are not suited for ground conditions. Ukraine has no decent air cover, and soldiers lack armor, leaving them dangerously exposed.

Russians are reinforcing their positions in Kherson and in recent weeks large convoys have been moving from Mariupol to Kherson which Russia wants to strengthen so as to be in control of a continuing supply of water to the Crimean peninsula. Ukraine’s line between Mykolayiv and Kherson is struck almost every day. From there to Zaporizhzhia the situation is very contested by artillery. CNN has obtained video footage showing as many as 350 Russian missiles moving towards Kherson by rail from Crimea (Iskander/S300?) indicating an approaching long struggle. All this is interpreted by Mercouris as further confirmation as to the poor likelihood of a Ukrainian counteroffensive. If the CNN report is correct, things do not look good for Ukraine which appears to be short of just about everything.

China, Taiwan, USA

Mercouris reads out the entirety of the Chinese statement on President Xi Jinping;’s recent conversation with Biden. Use of the term “candid” usually conveys something approaching a row. China refers to a world of disorder in which the global population expects the US and China to take a lead. Chinese-US relations are not to be interpreted in terms of rivalry and strategic competition, but in terms of cooperation.

The USA is responsible for the deterioration of the relationship between China and the USA. China and the USA need to maintain communication to protect global supply, energy and security. Sanctions, in other words, are an incredibly bad idea.

Attacks on supply chains will not help boost the USA economy and only the UNSC has the right under international law to impose sanctions. So the West is acting illegally by acting unilaterally. The two sides need to work towards regional de-escalation, to reduce the risk of stagflation and inflation and conform to international law.

On Taiwan, China is uncompromising. The USA is at serious risk of triggering a serious conflict. The Chinese President makes it clear that Taiwan belongs to mainland China. The one-China principle is fundamental to China-US relations. Any move by external forces to challenge that principle will be immediately challenged militarily by China. This is the firm will of 1.4 billion Chinese people. Those who play with fire will perish by it. It is hoped that the USA will be clear-eyed about this, and that its deeds will match its words.

Biden’s response is fuzzy and ambivalent. China clearly don’t believe Biden can be trusted.

Mercouris judges this exchange as the most confrontational since the time of the Clinton administration. China is issuing extremely grave warnings and Biden is personally playing with fire. It still looks as though Pelosi (3rd ranking American politician and therefore not a normal member of Congress and who, as Speaker, is an integral member of the US government) will visit Taiwan, in a preposterous pretense that somehow Pelosi is independent of the Administration. The US President is fully able and entitled to prohibit such a visit. China is not buying the Pelosi claim of Pelosi’s independence, anyway. The Global Times indicates that China will defend its core interests noting that the US follows the logic of power over the logic of reason, and is intent on global hegemony. Now is not the mid-1990s nor is it the 1950s: the time when the US could act as unchallenged global bully is over. today, China has the military power to challenge the USA with every prospect of success.

Mercouris worries that the neocons see this as their last chance to humiliate the Chinese, and that they think the Chinese are bluffing, even though the Chinese President has clearly indicated that he is not. We are closer to a military clash between the USA and China than we have ever been. China will deepen its relationship with Russia and work hard on their joint nuclear capability. American sympathy with Taiwan is not going to help Taiwan in the event of war, any more than Western sympathy with Ukraine has helped the Ukrainians. All this is testimony to the disastrous state of the competence of Western leadership.