One thought on “Alexander Mercouris: Taiwan Crisis Intensifies as Russia Grinds Down Ukraine Defences in Donbass”

  1. Go Pelosi, go! The Blinken-Sullivan team, or whoever keeps the lights on in the Biden admin, are doubling down on their Karl Rove / Scooter Libby version of manufactured reality.

    While it’s true that tensions with China were growing, nobody was in any great hurry to hasten the escalatory spiral that hawkish analysts insisted is inevitable. But I suppose it really does become inevitable, when the brain trust in DC are convinced they can impose their conception of hegemony on the place that makes nearly all the technological goods in the US (and most other countries).

    So today’s apparently the ‘had-enough-done-playing’ moment, at least in PRC rhetoric. While many were disappointed by the seemingly mild response, I’m inclined to believe them.

    Instead of an air-force confrontation, what we seem to be getting is China asserting control of the waters on all sides of the Island – though in an incremental manner so far. The original time table for reunification was 2049, as a point of reference.

    Currently the PLA navy is probably not strong enough to do this and simultaneously protect Chinese trade routes (eg to Persian Gulf). Look for that deficiency to be rapidly corrected. Think Covid response. Nothing fancy, just the basics, using existing tools. But at scale.

    In the meantime, there’s likely to be some symbolic demonstration of the US being dependent on Chinese imports.

    The Chinese public will be pissed too, and that’ll intensify over time. US domestic politics is likely to do the usual thing and cheerlead vulgar anti-China sentiment. It’ll work as well as it always does. Anyway the upshot there is US brands with significant mainland China sales, like Apple or Caterpillar or GM or Tesla, might be in for a rough patch. Also a kind of introductory phenomenon.

    It’s going to be Supply Chain 101 again, just like last summer, while PRC prepares for the next episode.

    Just a big old barrel of fun all around.

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