By Edward Slavsquat, Substack, 3/21/23
“We have increased our economic sovereignty many times over. After all, what did our enemy count on? That we would collapse in 2-3 weeks or in a month,” Russian president Vladimir Putin said during his visit to the Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant last week.
Is Putin’s gloating justified? Yes … and no.
“Yes and No? No and Yes? But [callous ideologue on the internet] told me [meaningless word salad used to prop up a hopelessly warped view of Russia],” you might be screaming at your screen.
We blame both Anne Applebaum and the 5D Checkmate Wizards for shrouding Russia’s economic realities in an impenetrable fog of vapid slogans and lazy one-liners. Together they have created a mind-melting false binary in which there are apparently only two possibilities for Russia:
- Total economic collapse as starving Russians hunt feral cats for sustenance.
- A Golden Age of profitable, sanctions-bypassing commerce and comfortable self-sufficiency.
Maybe it’s time to expand our horizons? Yes, probably. We will need at least five blog posts to do this, though.
Where to begin?
Putin said on March 19 that Russia had made great strides towards reducing dependency on foreign imports, so let’s start with import substitution.
Import substitution: Is it urgent now?
On February 15, 2022—nine days before Russian tanks poured into Ukraine—your correspondent asked if Russia was adequately prepared for an inevitable barrage of US-imposed sanctions (which, as historians will confirm, arrived about two weeks later).
We concluded that in vital sectors such as agriculture and energy, Russia had little to worry about (to the point where it was the world’s leading exporter of wheat). In other key areas—particularly electronics and manufacturing—there was definitely room for improvement.
Just to be very clear: Import substitution is different from autarky. There was never a plan to make Russia 100% self-sufficient.
But if Russia’s “trusted western partners” were willing to knee-cap trade agreements at the behest of Washington—like they did in 2014—who knows what else they were capable of? It became a national security issue; a way to safeguard against any future monkey business.
The topic of self-sufficiency predictably took center stage in Russia after the start of the “special military operation,” and the resulting tsunami of sanctions.
Blackpills came from unexpected places.
Anastasia Tatulova, public ombudsman for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Russia, accused officials of presenting a “distorted picture” of Russia’s self-sufficiency. The country’s real sector was almost entirely dependent on imported equipment and components, the business leader said.
Read full article here.