By Sylvia Demarest, Substack, 6/8/25

Sylvia Demarest is a retired trial lawyer.

First a brief discussion of 4 issues: 1) clarification of the term military Keynesianism; 2) why pushing for WW3 is societal suicide; 3) comments on Operation Spiderweb; and 4) the aborted exchange of bodies between Ukraine and Russia.

1–Military Keynesianism— Military Keynesianism refers to the use of war and military spending to stimulate the economy. The US is economically dependent on military spending. Keynesianism refers to John Maynard Keynes a British mathematician and economist who was very influential during the Great Depression, spearheading a revolution in economic thinking, and providing the theoretical basis for Keynesian economics. Keynes opposed setting German reparations payments so high during the Versailles peace conference that followed WW1, and was also involved in the negotiations that established the Bretton Woods system after World War 2. President Richard Nixon withdrew the US from Bretton Woods in 1971 initiating the era of neoliberalism. These issues were discussed in previous Substack’s.

2–World War 3–In the last Substack two reasons were given why the US and NATO could not fight and win WW3 against a peer enemy such as Russia or China: 1) the US and the NATO nations do not have the industrial capacity to produce the weapons needed to fight and win an industrial war, or to even provide the needed logistical support; and 2) since modern weapons were so powerful, a global war would destroy civilization. The basis for this opinion is the reality that in such a war, the US and NATO would probably face defeat, and, rather than accept defeat, would use nuclear (or biological) weapons). Should nuclear weapons be used against either Russia or China, both the USA and the EU would be destroyed in retaliation. Russia and China are very large countries so their capacity to retaliate is unlikely to be destroyed, even by a first strike. A nuclear war of this size would destroy civilization. Avoiding WW3 is the only reasonable option

3–Operation Spiderweb–On June 1^st Ukraine launched a drone attack against Russian strategic bombers parked on several bases. The attack is said to have taken 18 months to arrange. It involved hiding drones in wooden houses in trucking containers. An electronic signal opened the roofs of the containers, releasing drones. The container then self-destructed.

Several bases were attacked but not all were hit. Western media has been very congratulatory of Ukraine’s “daring do.” David Ingnatius even exalted “Ukraine’s Dirty War Is Just Getting Started”. The extent of the damage is uncertain. Ukraine claims to have destroyed 40 planes, the US claims 20 hit and 9 destroyed, the alternative media claims only 5 planes destroyed and damaged meaning some will be repaired. Given the ability to fake video and photos it is impossible to know the true facts unless Russia decides to tell us and offers proof. The USSR made hundreds of the planes that were hit (although some had been upgraded) and bone yards contain extra parts, so any loss may not be permanent. Moreover, these types of bombers have been superseded by other means of weapon’s delivery. Russia’s true loss may, or may not, be that significant. The loss of trust, security, and national pride are another matter.

The USA claims not to have been involved in this strike, but as Dmitry Kornev argued in an analysis published in RT, the drone strikes “blended high-tech sabotage, covert infiltration, and satellite-guided timing with the kind of precision that only the world’s most advanced intelligence networks can deliver.” If the USA was not directly involved, a questionable proposition, some western country with access to US data and systems, probably was involved.

The Russian strategic bombers, like similar US bombers, are parked outside, so they could be monitored by satellite, as required by a treaty between the US and the Soviet Union (today Russia) –the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF). Russia constantly moves these bombers –so Ukraine needed access to up to date satellite information for targeting purposes. The US is the most likely source of this data.

There have been several articles discussing the fact that the US and NATO run, arm, and fund this proxy war against Russia. For example, the CIA has operated throughout Ukraine for years before the SMO started in February 2022. It has also been acknowledged that the war is overseen by NATO and the US out of a military base in Germany, see “The Partnership: The Secret History of the War in Ukraine”. The US and NATO are Ukraine’s eyes and ears assisting with imaging and SIGNIT intelligence for use in monitoring and targeting. It defies logic to claim that none of the countries in US/NATO alliance participated in this attack–in fact the best description is that this was a limited US first strike on Russia, by proxy.

Unfortunately, there is now ZERO potential for weapon limitation treaties with Russia, or for that matter, with China. The betrayal, and the distrust, is too great. This probably signals the end of any real effort to end the Ukraine war–after all, this attack came one day before another scheduled peace conference. The US and NATO have proven to be unreliable and untrustworthy partners. This is markedly different from the Cold War when trust and reliability levels were much higher.

Every effort is being made to goad Russia into striking outside Ukraine, such a strike could force the US to join the war and turn the Ukraine war into WW3. Russia is very wise not to take the bait. If we survive this era, we should all thank the rational, careful and levelheaded President of Russia, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, not the so called “western leadership.”

The lack of concern for the risk of a global nuclear war is very dangerous, it means there is no public pushback against either the Ukraine War or the talk of a wider war. Even the Washington Post is beginning to sound the alarm–see “Why We Should Worry About Nuclear Weapons Again.”

4 –The exchange of bodies between Russia and Ukraine During the last peace negotiation, Russia and Ukraine agreed to an exchange of bodies of deceased soldiers. Russia began publishing lists of names and showed up on the Minsk border with refrigerated trailers for the exchange. Ukraine refused to accept the bodies. Was this refusal because acknowledging 6,000 dead soldiers would contradict Ukraine’s casualty claims, and would require Ukraine to pay their families billions? To prevent this the Ukraine Rada passed a law requiring families to prove the death in court, giving the government two years to pay.

What are human biases, like confirmation bias and group think?

There are so many human biases entire books have been written about them, for example, The Biased Brain lists almost 200 biases, and an entire Cognitive Biases Codex has been set up.

Human biases are closely studied, not only to manipulate people and promote war, but by marketers and politicians. Human biases are poorly understood by most people–but we all have them. Cognitive Biases cause us to make irrational decisions and judgments on the information we process. A Cognitive Bias can be thought of as a programmed error in our brains. These biases can be manipulated, especially when combined with fear, greed, ideology, and the lust for power. Censorship and the manipulation of information through propaganda and fear is a feature of our media, which is often aligned with big business and the national security state.

Cognitive Biases can be divided into 4 parts:

1. Information: filtering information.

2. Meaning: connecting dots and filling in the gaps with what we think we know.

3. Speed: making decisions based on new information.

4. Memory: we can’t remember everything, so we have to use it efficiently.

For those who want to delve into cognitive biases more deeply a good place to start is Gust de Baker’ article Cognitive Biases (2025): A Complete list of 151 Biases.

For today’s essay I want to focus on two; confirmation bias and a combination of several biases that expresses itself in what is known as group think.

Confirmation bias “refers to the tendency of individuals to seek, interpret, and remember information in a way that confirms their pre-existing beliefs or values. This bias leads people to focus on evidence that supports their views while dismissing or undervaluing information that contradicts them. As a result, confirmation bias can create a distorted understanding of reality, reinforce stereotypes and hinder effective communication in diverse settings.”

Group Think “..refers to a mode of thinking in which individual members of small cohesive groups tend to accept a viewpoint or conclusion that represents a perceived group consensus, whether or not the group members believe it to be valid, correct, or optimal. Groupthink reduces the efficiency of collective problem solving within such groups.”

From Britanica: “The eight symptoms of groupthink include an illusion of invulnerability or of the inability to be wrong, the collective rationalization of the group’s decisions, an unquestioned belief in the morality of the group and its choices, stereotyping of the relevant opponents or out-group members, and the presence of “mind guards” who act as barriers to alternative or negative information, as well as self-censorship and an illusion of unanimity. Decision making affected by groupthink neglects possible alternatives and focuses on a narrow number of goals, ignoring the risks involved in a particular decision. It fails to seek out alternative information and is biased in its consideration of that which is available. Once rejected, alternatives are forgotten, and little attention is paid to contingency plans in case the preferred solution fails.

How confirmation bias is used to manipulate people

We are all products of the information environment in which we live. Often it is this very information environment provides the propaganda that creates confirmation bias. Most people get their news from the corporate media. In corporate media, the news is often managed, information is censored, a narrative is created, dissenting points of view are excluded, and the approved narrative is constantly repeated. In the alternative media, all points of view can be found, but some are completely unreliable. The security agencies are also involved in media. The best option is to consult a variety of sources, supplemented by a constant study of history. Unfortunately, history has also been censored and manipulated. The best evidence usually comes from historians who rely on and cite original sources. Unfortunately, historians who contradict the approved narrative may not be able to publish their work. Those who get published may find their careers destroyed. Noam Chomsky has spent a career studying these issues. Ron Unz has conducted a historical re-evaluation in his American Pravda series and discusses many of these issues.

One significant feature of the information environment for the last 20 plus years has been the demonization and outright defamation of Russia and her president, Vladimir Putin.

–One historian, Dr. Vladimir Brovkin believes that this demonization began in 2003 when France and Germany combined with Russia to oppose the Iraq war. It is understood that one of the purposes of NATO was to “keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down”. The friendship and cooperation between Russia, Germany and France may have been seen as a threat to US influence.

—Vladimir Posner gave a lecture at Yale University in September, 2018 titled “How the United States Created Vladimir Putin” discussing the facts behind the extensive campaign to create a negative image of Putin and Russia. Posner also said he had hired people to examine the archives of the New York Times to locate positive stories from 2015, 2016, and 2017 about Russia or Putin. There were none. This level of negative reporting should be seen as evidence of a successful propaganda campaign intended to build support of a war against Russia.

–On September 25, 2015 John Mearsheimer gave a lecture titled “Why Is Ukraine the West’s Fault”. The lecture did not attract a great deal of attention at the time, but after February of 2022 has over 30 million views. In this lecture Prof Mearsheimer sets out how to resolve the civil war in Ukraine–abandon NATO expansion–guarantee minority rights in Ukraine especially language rights–and provide some autonomy to Eastern Ukraine. These were the basic principles Russia always supported, and were also behind Misk 1 and 2, which were never implemented–in fact Angela Merkel of Germany admitted the agreements were used to buy time to allow Ukraine to re-arm.

To think there was nothing positive to say about Russia or the accomplishments of President Putin is absurd. Julian Assange pointed to the objective of such coverage when he said that every war the US has fought for the last 50 years has been based on lies. This is also the case with the proxy war in Ukraine.

Constant repetition of negative coverage is likely to trigger confirmation bias. Confirmation bias often makes it impossible for people to change their minds about issues and events no matter how much contrary information they are shown. Lies once embedded often cannot be dislodged. Perhaps this is why Mark Twain is claimed to have said, “it’s easier to fool people than to convince them they have been fooled.”

If we consider the entire array of societal rewards and punishments, it becomes obvious that the ability to control information, along with the power to bury or punish those who try to reveal prohibited information, can create false narratives and control our understanding of both current events and history. This information control, when combined with fear, can embed biases that can be manipulated to steer society in desired directions. Wars would never be fought if they weren’t profitable and served to enhance the power of favored groups. This has been the course of history throughout the ages.

How are group think is used to support militarism and war

In 1972, Irving.L. Janis did a study titled Victims of groupthink: A psychological study of foreign-policy decisions and fiascoes. In this study Janis defined “groupthink” as a psychological drive for consensus at any cost that suppresses dissent and appraisal of alternatives in cohesive decision-making groups. Janis used a group dynamics approach to explain aspects of American foreign policy decision making.

Janis found that the results of this small-group phenomenon often spelled disaster and paved the way for some of the major U.S. fiascoes: the Korean War stalemate, the escalation of the Vietnam War, the failure to be prepared for the attack on Pearl Harbor, and the Bay of Pigs blunder. Yet there are cases, such as the handling of the Cuban Missile Crisis and the formulation of the Marshall Plan, where group think was avoided. It is through documented portrayal of these cases of the invasion and avoidance of group think that Irving Janis demonstrated his hypothesis and was able to offer suggestions for counteracting group think.

Janis’s work showed how group think was a major issue and made suggestions for avoiding the problems of group think in the future. To date, his suggestions have been ignored. One major issue in the effort to avoid group think is that those who adhere to the group’s narratives are encouraged and promoted, those who do not are excluded and lose influence.

If the past is any indication, U.S. foreign policy makers will learn nothing from another debacle like Ukraine. In the past, decision makers have been able to walk away from the ruins of their poor decisions without any political repercussions. If this is repeated with the Ukraine proxy war, it will reinforce the belief that such a proxy war represents a repeatable formula for sustaining a bloated military, for selling weapons, and for starting wars of convenience. This pattern of U.S. foreign policy failures stretches from North Korea to the present day, with a corresponding trail of death and destruction. The question: how can this destructive pattern be ended before it destroys us all?

From Armed Madhouse: Ukraine War Report

Conclusion

Today the cycle of war is in full flower–military Keynesianism rules the day. The US is in a proxy war against Russia, has bombed Yemen, and threatens war against Iraq and China. The US military budget is set to increase the power of confirmation bias and group think is undaunted.

Today is also the anniversary of the Israeli attack on the USS Liberty on June 8, 1967, an attack that was apparently designed to allow the US to enter the 1967 war on behalf of Israel,threatening a nuclear confrontation with the Soviet Union. I raise these issues because we again face the risk of nuclear war. Also, the US alliance with Israel is implicated in every war the US has fought since 911, including the current campaign to force the US to go to war with Iran, again, for the security of Israel. Given the financial and political power of the Zionist lobby in the USA concern about war with Iran must be taken seriously.

The risk of that war with Russia, with Iran, or with China could lead to a civilization destroying nuclear war. Together, all these issues again highlight the need for people to put aside their differences, their biases, and come together in a citizen’s movement for reform.