By Sylvia Demarest, Substack, 6/15/25
Sylvia Demarest is a retired trial lawyer and a writer.
Introduction:
The current war should not be seen as solely an Israeli operation. This war was in the planning stage well before Trump was elected. It has the full support of the US military-industrial-intelligence complex, the corporate media, and the entire political class-both Republican and Democrat. It would have happened even if Kamala Harris had been elected president. Trump was elected on a promise to end these wars. He either lied to the American people or has been overpowered by an alliance of money and power. In any case, he failed, and Israel has initiated this war. The NATO alliance is also on board along with the intelligence agencies of all the aligned countries. The one group that does not support this war is the public, including the American people, but the people have no voice.
Over the last several years Iran’s system of deterrence was gradually degraded. Syria fell to Islamic extremists, Israel systematically destroyed Syria’s weapons, the pager operation did serious damage to Hezbollah, Nasrallah was assassinated, Beirut was bombed, parts of Lebanon and Syria were occupied, and Israel emerged, seemingly predominate.
The one remaining obstacle to Israeli hegemony was Iran. Operation Rising Lion was not initiated to destroy Iran’s nuclear capability; Israel does not have the capacity to do that. The operation was launched to cause a total state collapse in Iran. The goal was to fracture Iran so the country could easily be dominated and conquered.
This seems to have been the plan. The first phase involved the elimination of the top military and IRGC leaders, and nuclear scientists, while unleashing havoc on the public–this phase is complete. Because Iran had not retaliated against previous provocations, it was believed that this operation would not result in significant Iranian retaliation. If Iran had not retaliated, the next phase would target and assassinate the top political leadership. Next, proxy forces would be unleashed, paid and armed by the CIA and Mossad to kill Iranians and cause a civil war. Iran would be defanged and balkanized, ethnic divisions would be stirred up, proxies forces would be organized and funded by the Gulf states, Mossad, and the CIA. Proxy death squads would roam Iran, causing death and mass destruction–just like what happened in Libya and Syria.
But Iran retaliated. The fog of war is thick, and information has been tightly controlled, but Israel appears to be getting pounded by round after round of Iranian missiles. If this continues, it will exhaust Israel’s ability to defend against these missiles. Israeli defense and infrastructure will be destroyed. Instead of initiating a civil war, even the moderate Iranians who hated the Mullah’s, are now shouting “death to Israel.” Israel has panicked. This is an increasingly dangerous situation. We should be on guard for a “false flag” operation designed to implicate Iran and force the US and NATO to formally enter this war on Israel’s behalf. Iran’s response must be finely balanced. Israel must be severely punished, but not so severely as to force a nuclear response.
There are unverified reports that Pakistan and North Korea, two states with nuclear weapons, have threatened to respond should Israel attack Iran with nuclear weapons. Also, a 3rd cargo plane from China has landed in Iran. China gets oil from Iran and may have delivered anti-aircraft systems. Finally, John Mearsheimer says that the only way for Iran to protect herself from attack is to immediately get a nuclear weapon. Many other countries may feel compelled to do the same. This is a dangerous mess. Brought to the world by militarism, Zionism, out of control Jewish Nationalist Supremacy, and its fellow travelers in the US, and NATO.
What happened to Iran in phase 1
After 25 years of open hostility towards Iran, the United States, via the Trump Administration, gave Israel the green light to conduct an illegal decapitation strike against Iran. In an attack on Friday the 13th, which closely resembled Ukrainian Operation Spider Web’s attempt to destroy Russia’s strategic bombers, Israel conducted a sneak attack and regime change operation against Iran called “Operation Rising Lion”. As with Operation Spider Web, preparations for the operation began during the Biden Administration. As with the Ukrainian operation, Operation Rising Lion used drones smuggled into Iran (or assembled at a secret drone base) to assassinate over two dozen Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists. The drones, apparently operated by Israeli commando’s, or local assets, assassinated military leaders and scientists either as they met in an underground bunker, or as they slept in their apartments, along with their families and children. Israel also used a cyber-attack to “permanently disable” Iran’s aircraft defenses–but Iran fixed and rebooted the system within 10 hours. It was believed that operation Rising Lion would result in an uprising by the Iranian people and the overthrow the Iranian government. This has not happened so far. It was also believed that the Iranian government would not, or could not, retaliate against Israel. This proved to be incorrect.
Every US president is a puppet for the national security state and Donald J. Trump has proven to be no exception.
After the unbridled warmongering militarism of the Biden Administration, Trump’s promises of peace presented a welcomed change. But Trump’s words were just a façade. Like every other President, Trump caved to Zionist money and deep state power. The American people voted for peace, and, yet again, got war instead.
This video is probably a deep fake–but I like the message. Vladimir Putin doesn’t mince words. “No US president truly holds power. And now, even Donald Trump, once the loudmouth promising peace, shows his true colors by backing attacks on Iran. Just another puppet controlled by the Deep State, serving the machine while pretending to lead.”
The attacks on Russia and on Iran appear to have been coordinated.
On June 1st Ukraine attacked Russian strategic bombers. On June 13th Israel attacked Iran.“There is evidence of coordination between the attack on Iran and the attacks on Russia. Israeli strikes killed Mohammad Bagheri, the chief of the Iranian army’s general staff; Hossein Salami, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps; and David Sheikhian, commander of the IRGC’s air defense. Many other senior military leaders were also killed. This situation is analogous to the terrorist attacks by SBU agents against Russian army commanders. On December 17, 2024, Ukrainian terrorists assassinated Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, the head of the Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Defense Forces.”
“Among the prominent Iranian scientists killed today were Dr. Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, Dr. Ahmad Reza Zolfaghari, Dr. Abdolhamid Minuchehr, Dr. Amir Hosein Fekhi, and Dr. Fereydoun Abbasi. Ukrainian intelligence has engaged in the similar assassination of Russian scientists and engineers. Since 2022, Daniil Mikheev, a coordinator of new unmanned systems for the Ministry of Defense; Konstantin Ogarkov, an employee of a defense research institute in Voronezh; and Igor Kolesnikov, an engineer at a design bureau in the Tula region, have been killed.”
“Sergei Potapov, a cybersecurity specialist in defense from Nizhny Novgorod, was killed. Valery Smirnov, one of the leaders of programs for the radio-electronic protection of strategic facilities, was assassinated. In January 2024, Ukrainian saboteurs blew up a car carrying officers from the electronic intelligence headquarters in the Bryansk region. On the night of April 17-18, 2025, Evgeny Rytnikov, the head of the design bureau of the Bryansk Electromechanical Plant, the developer of the electronic warfare complexes series “Krasukha,” died.”
Iran was bombed on the 61st day after the start of “negotiations” –just as Trump’s “ultimatum” implied–despite ongoing negotiations.
President Trump’s statements after the fact can be seen as an admission of his own level of complicity in the attacks.
“Two months ago, I gave Iran a 60-day ultimatum to “make a deal.” They should have done it! Today (June 13th) is day 61. I told them what to do, but they just couldn’t get there. Now they have, perhaps, a second chance!”
Yet the American people and the Iranians were led to believe that Iran’s nuclear program was still being “negotiated”?
Meanwhile, the US was quick with the denials–but as they say–“thou doth protest too much”? U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio quickly issued this statement: “Tonight, Israel took unilateral action against Iran,” Rubio said in a statement. “We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region. Israel advised us that they believe this action was necessary for its self-defense.” He also cautioned: “do not attack US forces.”
How big is Iran and Israel? Look at the difference in size and population, do you really think Israel would act without US approval and the expectation of US support?
How big is Iran? Iran is 2.4 times larger than the state of Texas. Iran spans 636,372 square miles. Iran has a population of 90 million people. Iran is very mountainous. Iranians are also highly educated, and Iran produces exceptional engineers. Iran has weapons the US has not been able to develop–such as hypersonic missiles. There are several videos showing hypersonic missiles hitting Israel.
How big is Israel? Israel is approximately the size of the Dallas/Ft Worth area of Texas. Israel consists of 8,019 square miles. Israel has a population of approximately 9.5 million people. Israel is relatively flat. If Iran decides to destroy Israel, Iran has the capacity to do so. Iran could also destroy every US base in the Middle East and shut the Straits of Hormuz. The idiocy and group think behind starting this war is unsurpassed. We are truly ruled by fools.
The set up for war with Iran
1–IAEA expresses concerns that Iran not fully cooperating. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) warns that inspectors have been unable to determine whether Iran’s nuclear program was “exclusively peaceful” as per the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal from which the United States subsequently withdrew. This led to the passage of a resolution on the 12th by the IAEA’s board of governors highlighting serious and growing concerns since at least 2019 that Iran had failed to cooperate fully with the UN agency’s inspectors. Iran claims she recently acquired evidence that the IAEA was providing Israel with the names of Iranian scientists. These scientists were then assassinated. Note: This is the same pretext used for the Iraq war.
2–Canada and the United Kingdom express concerns about Iran’s nuclear program. Again, setting up a pretext for war.
3–Negotiations are scheduled for Sunday June 15th between the US and Iran.Negotiations have since been cancelled.
4–President Trump and Ambassador Huckabee deny that an attack is imminent US President Donald Trump said Thursday that an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear sites “could very well happen” but advised against it, saying the possibility of a deal was “fairly close” if Tehran compromises on its atomic ambitions in ongoing talks with the US. US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee said in an interview yesterday that Israel was unlikely to attack Iran without a green light from Washington.
5–Americans have been told Iran wanted a nuclear weapon for 30 years. Americans have been told for 30 years that Iran was months or weeks away from having a nuclear weapon. Once Iran is bombed, based on this propaganda, most people will say-“oh Iran was weeks away from getting a nuke.”
6–Iran is the last of the 7 countries scheduled for regime change after 911. Former US General and NATO Commander Wesley Clark revealed the US empire made plans to overthrow the governments of 7 countries in 5 years: Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Iran. Iran is the only country left to be destroyed. This is the cycle of war since 911. US blood and treasure has been used to destroy Israel’s enemies.
The Trump Administration held a meeting at Camp David on June 7th to discuss Iran and Gaza. Tulsi Gabbard did not attend.
The meeting was disclosed to Axios by “two US officials and another source with knowledge.” Present was President Trump, Vice President Vance, Secretary of State Rubio, Secretary of Defense Hegseth, CIA Head Radcliff, Chief of Staff Wiles, and certain generals and admirals. Perhaps, “the boys” did not want to have to listen to a contrary voice?
Tulsi Gabbard recently visited Hiroshima and posted a video warning about the risk of a nuclear war.
The US and Israel worked together to deceive Iran and the American people.
If this is shown to be true, it means the American people were fed months of lies and propaganda about a “breach” between President Trump and Israeli PM Netanyahu. This includes press reports about why President Trump did not visit Israel during a recent trip to the Middle East. It now seems more probable that, rather than being estranged, US and Israel were cooperating on plans to bomb both Iran and Russia.
Recent reporting as well as statements by President Trump on Friday the 13th, reveal that the US and Israel practiced deceptive diplomacy, as Israeli and American officials worked together to convince Iran that nuclear negotiations were progressing. Instead, an elaborate Israel attack on Iran was being planned. Tehran was given a false sense of security, and, as a result was ill-prepared for its defense.
The progression of events indicates that this was a closely coordinated operation and that the “peace talks” were used to give Israel the opportunity for maximum surprise to achieve maximum damage” to Iran.
Here’s what President Trump posted three hours before the Military Solution was unleashed: “We remain committed to a diplomatic solution to the Iran nuclear issue. My entire Administration has been directed to negotiate with Iran. They could be a great country but first they must give up hopes of obtaining a nuclear weapon.” “Disinformation” is a chronically overused term, but this fits the bill
In this operation, Israel also assassinated Ali Shamkhani, a key negotiator in the US-Iran nuclear talks and who was a top aide to Supreme Leader Khamenei.
Here’s what the president said after the Israeli attack on Iran.
US President Donald Trump described Israel’s strikes on Iran as “excellent” on Friday and warned that there is “a lot more to come” unless Tehran agrees to a nuclear deal. He made the remarks in a phone call with ABC News chief Washington correspondent Jonathan Karl.
Though the US initially sought to distance itself from the attack, Trump has now told Iran: ‘There is still time to make this slaughter, with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal, come to an end.’
He said in a post to Truth Social: ‘I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal. I told them, in the strongest of words, to ‘just do it,’ but no matter how hard they tried, no matter how close they got, they just couldn’t get it done.
‘I told them it would be much worse than anything they know, anticipated, or were told, that the United States makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the World, BY FAR, and that Israel has a lot of it, with much more to come – And they know how to use it.”
‘Certain Iranian hardliners spoke bravely, but they didn’t know what was about to happen. They are all DEAD now, and it will only get worse!”
It is likely that the US knew and approved of the strike–UK, France and Germany may have also been involved.
Axios has reported that Tel Aviv was given “a clear US green light” to start bombing, according to two unnamed Israeli officials. The previously widely reported ‘split’ and spat between Trump and Netanyahu was a public ruse. Two Israeli officials claimed to Axios that Trump and his aides were only pretending to oppose an Israeli attack in public — and didn’t express opposition in private. “We had a clear U.S. green light,” one claimed
It is difficult to believe that Israel would and could have attacked at this scale without US knowledge and green light–including de-conflicting with CENTCOM. Trump may have calculated this will soften Iran’s position, but just as he was wrong that maximum pressure will bring Iran to the table, he will be proven wrong that Israeli attack could give him a diplomatic win. He may end up getting the war that he and the MAGA base have said they don’t want.
Even the pizza indicator shows US was up to something as orders for pizza for the pentagon skyrocketed as the attack on Iran drew near.
Trump’s statements after the fact are an admission of his own level of complicity in the attacks.
This implies that a US president used official peace negotiations with a foreign country to convince both the leaders of that country, and the American people, that he was working for peace when in fact he was preparing for war. If this is true, this means the negotiations with Iran, and perhaps with Russia, were a ruse. Witkoff, like most of the Trump Administration, may have been acting as an agent of Israel and Netanyahu. This has serious implications for US security and calls for a complete re-examination of US policy towards Israel. There are now calls for the US to end our alliance with Israel.
Has “escalation dominance” now passed into the hands of the Iranians?
Iron Dome, THAD, and the rest appear to be a total bust. Despite efforts to control information, videos are showing hit after hit in Israel by Iran. The propaganda narrative of Iranian collapse is coming apart as Iran fires wave after wave of missiles at Israeli military assets. Iran now seems to be using mobile launchers, which Russia also has, to avoid detection. Iran is a huge country–good luck finding them. The US capacity to produce anti-aircraft and missile systems is limited. US can only manufacture 50-75 THAAD and 60-84 SM-3 interceptors per year!
Meanwhile, Iran’s True Promise 3.0 continues to target Israel’s military and energy infrastructure. Israel hit Iran’s energy infrastructure fist, including refineries, opening the door to retaliation. How much damage was done is unknown. Meanwhile, Iran responded to the Israeli attack with great force. Iran’s Fattah-1 hypersonic missiles, made quite a dazzling impact all over Tel Aviv and northern Israel. It is almost unreal to watch. Isreal’s oil refinery in Haifa was targeted. It produces 65% of Israel’s fuel needs. The Weizmann Institute for Science was targeted, along with many other important sites.
There are new reports that Israel is resorting to using car bombs against Iranian civilians. This may indicate that the drones Israel snuck in have been exhausted. Iran has been busy rounding up Israeli assets and closing Israeli infrastructure in Iran. The use of car bombs against Iranian civilians may result in Iran using EMAD missiles against military targets in Tel Aviv.
Here’s Simplicius: “Furthermore, it was also shown that most of Israel’s strike footage against Iranian ground assets turned out to be decoys, as none of the MRBMs were seen to ignite at all after massive ordnance landed on top of them. “
“Likewise, claims of ‘Israeli air superiority’ were a sloppy concoction stitched together from footage of low-flying IAI Heron drones briefly circling over Tehran for PR photos—likely before being shot down, as clips emerged of some ‘large aircraft’ Iran claimed were destroyed F-35s, but which were probably drones. Also, claims of Israeli ‘infiltration’ success and ‘secret bases’ appeared to be more exaggerated psyop fodder as it turned out Israelis were operating out of secret Azerbaijan bases, launching drones and various other objects at Iran from every direction.”
The assassinations, the cyber-attack, and the initial bombings have not damaged Iran’s nuclear capability. The hope that an initial Iranian over reaction would force the US to intervene has yet to occur–meanwhile, important Israeli assets are getting hit hard.
Who war gamed this war?
President Trump is now faced with a choice. So far, he still has a small shred of “deniability” about this and the Russian attack. If he relents and authorizes and attack on Iran, he will destroy what’s left of his presidency.
Here’s Simplicius again: “Now Trump stands poised on the knife’s edge of one of his most historically critical decisions–whether to betray the mandate of the American people and consign his second term and dwindling legacy to the trash heap of history, or to pull back on the strings of Miriam Adelson and other doners and show a spine in standing up for the real “America First” version he promised to all. As of this writing, there are reports of urgent meetings in the Pentagon surrounding precisely the issue of Israel’s request for the US to officially enter the war to “finish off Iran.””
As with most wars, lies and propaganda resulted in group think and created confirmation bias in the United States, NATO, and Israel, about Iran. This resulted a narrative that Iran was weak and would fall, leading to this sneak attack. Now operation Rising Lion is poised on the edge of failure. What will the US and NATO do in response? Our future may depend on the answer.
John F. Kennedy is credited with saying victory has a thousand fathers, but defeat is an orphan. Defeat has serious implications. Israel cannot survive a war of attrition. Israel will put everything on the line to force the United States military to intervene. The prospect for an Israel nuclear strike against Iran can also not be discounted.
People of good will should condemn assassinations, sneak attacks, and decapitation strikes. This is warmongering savagery. June 13th could be Iran’s Pearl Harbor and Iran could react as the US did in 1942. Iran’s capacity should not be underrated.
The fog of war means we have very little confirmed information about this war.
Complete military censorship is now in effect in Israel, yet videos still are being posted. What is true and what is false about this war is unknown. Remember, we will see far more coverage of strikes in Iran than in Israel in our media.
It is no longer possible for Israeli jets to operate out of Israel; they are apparently operating out of a British military base in Cypress. How long can these jets, F-35’s that require a huge amount of maintenance, continue to operate? There are many more unknowns than knowns in this war. As with the proxy war against Russia, the west can help Israel but if Iran strikes anywhere outside of Isreal, it will open the door for other countries to join the war.
It is fair to say, we are now past the preliminary stages of World War 3.
The only hope is for ordinary people to put aside their differences and to unite against militarism, neoliberalism, and neoconservatism–in support serious financial and structural reforms. The alternative is a future of war, wealth concentration, poverty, destruction, and depravation.