Le Monde, 7/16/25
Confronted with heavy casualties on the Ukrainian front and a wave of retirements, Vladimir Putin’s Russia is struggling to find enough workers to keep its war economy running. Russian companies will need to hire the equivalent of two million workers a year over the next five years to fill both newly created positions and vacancies left by retirees.
“By 2030, we will need to integrate 10.9 million people into the economy. About 800,000 new jobs will be created, and about 10.1 million people will have reached retirement age,” said Anton Kotiakov, the labor minister, on Monday, July 14, during a meeting with President Putin dedicated to demographic challenges.
The minister did not specify how he planned to meet the growing demand for workers – a problem now acute across all sectors of the economy, as illustrated by recent reports from the Central Bank and the current unemployment rate, which stands at its lowest level (2.2%).
This labor shortage became even more severe after the invasion of Ukraine, as around 700,000 men – mostly contract soldiers – are currently on the front lines. Many Russians, lured by the promise of salaries well above average, signed contracts with the military to fight or to work in arms manufacturing. The state pays its recruits generously, overshadowing the civilian sector, which suffers from chronic labor shortages.
Admission of failure for the Kremlin
This shortage is nothing new: Russia has seen its working-age population shrink for nearly 20 years. According to Rosstat, the federal statistics agency, the labor force decreased by 5.8 million between 2007 and 2021. The invasion of Ukraine only accelerated this trend. In spring 2024, Russia was short 1.86 million workers, based on calculations by Rosstat using requests submitted by companies to employment centers.
To help fill the gap, 47,000 foreign workers – mainly from China, India, Turkey and Serbia – were hired in the industrial sector in 2024, according to the labor ministry. Recruitment efforts will continue, particularly in India, which was described as a “natural partner” in this field by Andrei Komarov, a member of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs; Komarov recently expressed support for training foreign workers to meet market needs.
And time is running out, with demographic decline only accelerating, as shown by statistics published by Rosstat in April. In 2024, there were more deaths than births: 1.82 million deaths compared to 1.22 million newborns, with the death toll not including military losses in Ukraine, which authorities have declined to disclose. A total of 195,432 births were recorded in January and February of this year, a drop of 3% compared to 2024. Nationwide, deaths outnumber births by an average of 1.6 to 1, and in some regions, the gap is even wider. In Kaluga and Ivanovo it is 2 to 1, and in Vladimir and Belgorod, 3 to 1.
These statistics amount to an admission of failure for the Kremlin, which sees the birth rate decline inexorably despite its pro-natal policies, efforts to reduce the use of abortion and promotion of “traditional family values.” Since March, a bonus equivalent to €1,000 has been paid to each minor female student who gives birth. A few months earlier, a law was enacted banning “the promotion of a child-free lifestyle,” including a fine of up to five million rubles, or about €55,000.
Raising the retirement age
While the fertility rate for Russian women (1.4 children in 2022) is close to the European average (1.38), excess male mortality plays a major role in dragging down the country’s demographic prospects. Officially, male life expectancy was 68 years in 2023 – 12 fewer years than for women. Considering losses in Ukraine – 100,000 deaths since January, according to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio – excess male mortality can only worsen. At this rate, the country’s population, according to Rosstat, could fall to 138.8 million (from 144 million currently) by 2046, or even as low as 130 million under a more pessimistic scenario – the size of the Russian Empire in 1897.
If nothing is done to counter this decline, the retirement age will need to be raised to 80, assuming life expectancy allows it, according to an analysis published in May by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center. Days later, independent demographer Alexei Raksha, who participated in the study, saw his name added to a list of “foreign agents” that the Kremlin updates weekly.
The issue of demographic decline is under closer scrutiny than ever by the authorities, who have chosen to censor Rosstat. In its most recent socio-economic report, dated May, demographic data on deaths, births, marriages, divorces and population movements disappeared. Once accessible, these figures have not been updated since March and will no longer be released in the future, except by special authorization.