Russia Matters, 8/8/25

1. Following talks between Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and Vladimir Putin this week U.S. and Russian officials are working toward an agreement on Ukrainian territories for a planned summit between the U.S. and Russian leaders that could occur as early as the next week, according to Bloomberg. The agreement aims essentially to freeze the war, cementing Putin’s land gains,  and pave the way for a ceasefire and technical talks on a definitive peace settlement, “people familiar with the matter” told this news agency. Under the terms of the deal, Russia would halt its offensive in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine along the current battlelines. In exchange Putin is demanding that Ukraine cede entire Donbas to Russia as well as Crimea in what would require Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to order a withdrawal of troops from parts of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions still held by Kyiv, according to the agency. Speaking in the late afternoon of Aug. 8, Trump confirmed that the deal would involve territorial concessions. Trump said discussions were under way to get “some” land back as well as “some swapping of territories to the betterment of both,” according to Financial Times. He said the conflict could be resolved “very soon.” While having lost 99% of the Luhansk Oblast, with only 103 square miles remaining under their control in that province, Ukrainian forces continued to control some 25% of the Donetsk Oblast (2,509 square miles or 6,500 square kilometers), according to ISW’s latest estimates.¹ Forcing Ukrainian armed forces to quickly cede more than 2,600 square miles of territory they still control in Donbas, which comprises the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, without putting up a fight could be a tall order. A voluntary surrender of these territories by Ukrainians would require concessions on other issues by Russia, but, according to the Bloomberg story, it remains unclear if Moscow is prepared to give up any land that it currently occupies.*
2. In the period of July 8–Aug. 5, 2025, Russian forces gained 226 square miles of Ukrainian territory, which is more than the 190 square miles gained by Russia in the period of June 10–July 8, 2025. However, if one were to compare shorter periods, such as the past week to the preceding week, then such a comparison would reveal that Russia’s weekly gains declined. Russia gained 31 square miles of Ukrainian territory (about 1½ Manhattan islands) over the past week (July 29–Aug. 5, 2025)—slowing to just one third the rate of the previous week’s (July 22–29, 2025) gain of 105 square miles, according to the Aug. 6, 2025, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card .   
3. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi is warning that Russia is accelerating troop mobilization, aiming to form 10 new divisions by year’s end and adding about 9,000 troops monthly—despite suffering over 33,200 losses in July, Kyiv Independent reported. Syrskyi said Ukraine has no other option but to ramp up its own mobilization, improve training and strengthen drone capabilities to prevent Russia from achieving its objectives. Meanwhile, the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces has assured Putin that the Ukrainian front will crumble in two or three months, one source close to Russian government told Reuters.
4. More than three years into the war, Ukrainians’ support for continuing the fight against Russia until victory is “collapsing,” according to Gallup’s interpretation of its latest poll on the subject. Indeed, the share of those who think Ukraine should continue fighting until it wins plummeted from 73% in 2022 to 24% in 2025, which represents a decline of more than 67%, according to this international pollster. In the meantime, the share of Ukrainians who think Ukraine should seek to negotiate an end to the war as soon as possible went from 22% to 69%, exceeding that of Russians (63%) who would like to see a negotiated end to the fighting.²
5. The Russian Finance Ministry said this week that the country’s budget deficit has reached 4.88 trillion rubles ($61.1 billion) between January and July, or 2.2% of GDP, according to The Moscow Times. That is well above the 3.8 trillion rubles planned for all of 2025, according to this newspaper. The ministry blamed weaker oil and gas revenues—down nearly 19% year-on-year—and “advance financing” of expenses early in the year, the newspaper reported. Indeed, Russia’s combined oil and gas revenue totaled 787.3 billion rubles in July, down by 27%, according to the Bloomberg. Analysts, however, told MT that the real driver of the budget deficit is runaway spending.