Russia Matters, 10/20/25
- Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded Ukraine hand over full control of the eastern Donetsk region as a condition for ending the war, during a 2-hour call with his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump on Oct. 16,according to two senior officials cited by Michael Birnbaum of the Washington Post.1 Birnbaum also reported that Putin indicated willingness to abandon claims on portions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in exchange for Donetsk, a small concession compared to earlier demands, which some White House officials viewed as progress. Trump did not publicly comment on Putin’s demand, but in a high-tension meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky on Oct. 17, the U.S. leader urged his Ukrainian counterpart to accept Putin’s terms, reportedly warning him that Putin had vowed to “destroy” Ukraine if Zelensky did not agree to his terms, according to Christopher Miller, Max Seddon, Henry Foy, and Amy Mackinnon of the Financial Times. At one point Trump—who was “cursing all the time” tossed aside maps of the front line Zelensky—who refuses to yield more territory without fight—brought to the meeting. Asked after the meeting whether was concerned that Putin was stringing him along, Trump said he was not concerned, according to AP and WP’s Birnbaum. “I’ve been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well,” he said, adding it was “all right” if it took a little time. “But I think that I’m pretty good at this stuff,” he added. Trump’s acknowledgement of being played indicates that he has clearly arrived at a more realistic assessment of Putin who had repeatedly heaped praise on Trump and Trump’s views.
- If Trump’s recent repeated claims that he is considering supplying Tomahawk cruise missiles to Zelenskyy were meant to reignite Putin’s interest in substantive discussions of a Russian-Ukrainian peace deal, then he can congratulate himself. The Russian leader not only scrambled to talk to his U.S. counterpart one day before the latter was to host Zelenskyy on Oct. 17, but he also agreed to a U.S.-Russian summit to be hosted by Viktor Orban in two weeks. As for Zelenskyy’s hopes to convince Trump to permit supplies of these U.S.-made long-range cruise missiles during their meeting, they appeared to be all but dead in the water even before the bilateral. Trump appeared noncommittal about providing Tomahawks on Oct. 16, according to the Kyiv Independent. Trump then reaffirmed his recent cooling toward the idea of supplying these cruise missiles to Kyiv when hosting Zelenskyy on Oct. 17. “Tomahawks are very dangerous weapons,” Trump said. “Hopefully, we will be able to end the war without thinking about Tomahawks,” he said, according to FT. Meanwhile, George Beebeof Responsible Statecraft has warned that supplying Tomahawks to Ukraine risks repeating failed pressure tactics and ignores Russia’s fundamental security concerns, making compromise less likely. In contrast, The Wall Street Journal editorial board argues that sending Tomahawks would deter Russian aggression and show American resolve. Marc Thiessen of the Washington Post also supports sending Tomahawks to impose crushing costs on Russia, asserting it would push Putin to negotiate and that fears of escalation are overblown. Meanwhile, Sam Skove in Foreign Policy contends that Ukraine’s most pressing battlefield need is more drones, not long-range Tomahawk missiles.
- In his latest essay Thomas Graham explains why, in his view, containment is inadequate to the current Russian challenge. The structural conditions that underpinned containment’s success no longer exist: the world is no longer bipolar, Russia no longer lies at the center of U.S. policy, and the U.S. model is no longer obviously superior to the alternatives, Graham explains. Graham argues that the United States should seek to harness Russian power and ambition to U.S. purpose rather than to defeat Russia. To attain these goals, Graham proposes a policy of “competitive coexistence,” grounded in “five principles,” including that the U.S. “must accept Russia as it is,” “accept that Russia has legitimate national interests,” “recognize that Russian weakness can prove as dangerous as Russian strength,” “harness Russian power and ambition… to American purposes,” and “engage third parties… where Russia and the United States are not the dominant powers.”
- The deployment of Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus demonstrates both change and continuity in Russian thinking on escalation management, Gabriela Iveliz Rosa-Hernandez, Decker Eveleth, and Paul Schwartz argue in their CNA report. They find that joint military exercises, force deployments, and readiness demonstrations, which have been carried out as part of this deployment, are consistent with Russia’s pre-2022 war doctrine. At the same time, the authors highlight a key departure: placing nuclear weapons in Belarus marks a “marked departure” from Russia’s pre-war posture as it had long opposed NATO nuclear sharing, and now treats “attacks on Belarus [as] attacks on Russia itself. “They argue this forward deployment “alters the balance in Eastern Europe”—giving Russia “very little reaction time if [these weapons] are launched preemptively,” and increasing the likelihood of escalatory responses and NSNW demonstrations in future crises. Rosa-Hernandez, Eveleth, and Schwartz conclude that “Russia is embracing new forms of escalation management not seen since the Cold War,” and that “US and NATO strategists… should immediately take the implications… into consideration” and closely monitor evolving Russian doctrine.
- A Polish judge ordered the release of Volodymyr Zhuravlev, a 45-year-old Ukrainian accused of involvement in the Sept. 2022 Nord Stream sabotage, arguing that Ukraine was justified to order the sabotage the pipeline, Karolina Jeznach and Bojan Pancevski reported in Wall Street Journal. Judge Dariusz Lubowski ruled that the evidence presented by German authorities was insufficient. He said the attack on the pipeline was a legitimate operation considering that it was undertaken in wartime as Ukraine sought to defend itself against Russia. “The act of blowing up [the Nord Stream pipeline] is an act of sabotage, but not during the times of war and if it is the property of an aggressor,” Judge Lubowski said, according to WSJ. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk did not disagree with the judge on whether the destruction of Nord Stream 2 was justified. Tusk was quoted by WSJ as saying that “The problem with North Stream 2 is not that it was blown up. The problem is that it was built.” German prosecutors maintain the attack was criminal, alleging Zhuravlev, a deep-sea diver, helped plant explosives. A German investigator called the ruling “shameful.” Another suspect’s extradition from Italy was delayed after procedural errors.
