Russia Matters, 12/5/25

1. The Trump administration’s newly released U.S. National Security Strategy 2025 asserts that an “expeditious cessation of hostilities in Ukraine” is a core U.S. interest—not only to enable Ukraine’s survival as a “viable state,” but also to stabilize the European economy, prevent escalation and reestablish strategic stability with Russia. Managing Europe’s relationship with Russia, the NSS notes, will require vigorous U.S. diplomatic engagement to avoid further conflict and promote Eurasian stability. The document calls for “reestablishing conditions of stability within Europe and strategic stability with Russia,” thus, highlighting nuclear arms control. On nuclear policy, the strategy promises America the “world’s most robust, credible and modern nuclear deterrent,” alongside investment in “next-generation missile defenses.”¹
   1. On Dec. 5, Ukraine’s security chief Rustem Umerov and General Staff head Andriy Hnatov met U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner—who had previously visited Vladimir Putin to run an evolving peace plan by him with no agreement reached—in Miami to discuss the four-package peace plan. These talks in Miami were adjourned in the afternoon of Dec. 5 without agreement. Despite no deal being reached, further negotiations were reportedly expected with the participation of Umerov and Hnatov in the U.S. in the evening of Dec. 5, after the negotiators were due to brief their respective leaders. U.S. Vice President JD Vance expressed optimism about progress, though he acknowledged talks have been slower and more complex than expected.
2. During a recent meeting with Ukrainian officials, U.S. Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll warned that Ukraine was facing an imminent defeat on the battlefield. The Russians were ramping up the scale and pace of their aerial attacks, and they had the ability to fight on indefinitely, Driscoll said, two sources with knowledge of the matter told NBC. The situation for Ukraine would only get worse over time, he continued, and it was better to negotiate a peace settlement now rather than end up in an even weaker position in the future. In separate remarks in Kyiv to European diplomats, Driscoll warned that Russia is amassing a growing stockpile of long-range missiles, citing it as a reason to rapidly reach a peace deal before Ukraine’s defenses are overwhelmed, according to New York Times. European officials pressed Driscoll on including accountability for Russian war crimes in the peace deal, but he reportedly deflected, arguing that some disputed Ukrainian cities would inevitably end up under Russian control and warning that the terms for Ukraine would worsen if they delayed making a deal, according to Financial Times.
3. RM’s analysis of ISW data for the past four weeks (Nov. 4–Dec. 2, 2025) indicates that Russian forces gained 247 square miles of Ukrainian territory in that period, an increase over the 154 square miles it gained over the previous four-week period (Oct. 7–Nov. 4, 2025), according to the Dec. 3, 2025, issue of The Russia-Ukraine War Report Card.^2,3 In the past week, Nov. 25–Dec. 2, 2025, Russia gained 23 square miles of Ukraine’s territory in a significant decrease from the previous week’s reported gain of 128 square miles. Since Jan. 1, 2025, Russia has gained an average of 176 square miles per month, according to RM’s war card. Its latest gains include the city of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, which is “fully in the hands of the Russian army,” Vladimir Putin claimed in Dec. 2 remarks. According to the map by Ukraine’s OSINT DeepState group, however, most but not all of Pokrovsk was controlled by Russian forces as of Dec. 5 noon, with RF units attacking this key city from the east and west in what looked like an effort to turn AFU’s Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad salient into a cauldron.
4. Vladimir Putin said on Dec. 2 that Russia was “ready” for war if Europe seeks one, accusing the continent’s leaders of trying to sabotage a deal on the Ukraine war before he met with U.S. envoys, according to MT/AFP. “They have no peaceful agenda, they are on the side of war,” he added, repeating his claim that European leaders were hindering U.S. attempts to broker peace in Ukraine.
5. The United States wants Europe to take over the majority of NATO’s conventional defense capabilities, from intelligence to missiles, by 2027, Pentagon officials told European diplomats in Washington this week—a tight deadline that struck some European officials as unrealistic, according to Reuters. The U.S. officials told their counterparts that if Europe does not meet the 2027 deadline, the U.S. may stop participating in some NATO defense coordination mechanisms, said the sources, who requested anonymity to discuss private conversations, Reuters reported.